April lubricants industry market update.

[oakaro68]

It already has. They've raised prices quite a bit.

yeah, I was referring to their formulations. I bought more HPL recently and it was def more expensive.

 

[4wd]

It’s still a trickle. Used to be about 95 ships a day going through before the war. Now we’re seeing a few dozen. Progress, but we’ve got a ways to go, and the SPR is very low, as you mentioned.

Is this data from ATN? Do we even know that strategy if the military is giving direction on ATN use?

 

[tired]

Is this data from ATN? Do we even know that strategy if the military is giving direction on ATN use?

ATN = Aid to Navigation?

The data comes from AIS transponder data.

 

[4wd]

Greatest ATN = Aid to Navigation?

The data comes from AIS transponder data.

Many of them are cut off and move at night in the Strait …
(Decide the greatest risk)
Shadow fleets already did this …

 

[tired]

Many of them are cut off and move at night in the Strait …

Agree. Some people have looked at Chinese port traffic and are showing it at near median levels, so they are assuming there's a lot of traffic getting through the strait with AIS off. But some of that obviously comes from Russia too (especially since Russian oil sanctions have been lifted during this whole mess--no comment). Hard to say exactly how much is getting through.

 

[4wd]

Agree. Some people have looked at Chinese port traffic and are showing it at near median levels, so they are assuming there's a lot of traffic getting through the strait with AIS off. But some of that obviously comes from Russia too (especially since Russian oil sanctions have been lifted during this whole mess--no comment). Hard to say exactly how much is getting through.

Yep, and every single captain has a new procedure to follow - again, many of them based on a Risk Assessment …
I’d probably pick nighttime myself and move slow with minimal pinging … They still have other means as salty dogs …

 

[4wd]

Agree. Some people have looked at Chinese port traffic and are showing it at near median levels, so they are assuming there's a lot of traffic getting through the strait with AIS off. But some of that obviously comes from Russia too (especially since Russian oil sanctions have been lifted during this whole mess--no comment). Hard to say exactly how much is getting through.

Considering SA is getting 80% of their normal export out via the east/west - seems one more run of pipe and they’d be in good shape going forward …

 

[tired]

Considering SA is getting 80% of their normal export out via the east/west - seems one more run of pipe and they’d be in good shape going forward …

Yeah I'm betting we see some big infrastructure changes in the region in the coming years.

 

[4wd]

Yeah I'm betting we see some big infrastructure changes in the region in the coming years.

Allot - neighborhood has lost trust …

 

[Foxtrot08]

I understand this discussion is around the new raw supply. I’m wondering where does oil recycling come into play here? Doesn’t that go back into the supply chain somewhere?

You have a handful of players.

Safety Kleen / Kleen Performance Products / Clean Harbors.
Heritage crystal clean
GFL
Vertex energy
Blue Tide

I think some others out west that I’m unfamiliar with.

But their base oils go into a significant amount of group 2 based products. Hydraulic oils, R&Os, synthetic blends.

Safety Kleen and Vertex are supposedly producing group 3s now. But, I’m unsure of their API status / Dexos certification / etc. at this point.

 

[OVERKILL]

So, it depends on your opinion.

The only way, I know, to make a synthetic blend, with Dexos approval, is with a lot of PAO. I could be wrong, but that’s my understanding. It’s really not worth doing a group II / III blend. So you’re jumping up to PAO anyways.

Is a G2 / PAO blend better or worse than a straight group 3?

I mean it’s an interesting question.

Mobil has been pretty forthcoming about how their EHC GII products can be used to blend dexos-compliant lubes, I've posted the slides. How does this fit in here?

 

[Foxtrot08]

Mobil has been pretty forthcoming about how their EHC GII products can be used to blend dexos-compliant lubes, I've posted the slides. How does this fit in here?

The last time I saw that in the wild was probably 2014-2015 eras. I know it’s possible, I know it’s been used previously in the wild.

Safety Kleen also had a blend that met Dexos specifications in the same era.

I have not seen that as an option as of yet in the wild, in this case.


That being said, Mobil is currently producing small amounts of group 3 already in Baytown. But it is strictly for internal use. I assume it doesn’t have a Dexos formulation yet, but I could be wrong.

The formulators I’ve talked to, have told me the only way to meet Dexos 1 Gen 3 specs currently, in a blend, is with PAO. Those blends have been tested before, but were never economical at scale because of the cost of product. So it will be interesting to see what Mobil does. If they also go down the road of using their G2 product and their own PAO. Or if they get their new group 3 certified for a Dexos formulation.

I suspect we will see something very soon though on this, as formulations start to change. I’ve not seen a full spec sheet on the new product, but I do know some samples are out in the wild.

The next however many months is going to be very interesting on how formulations change.

 

[OVERKILL]

The last time I saw that in the wild was probably 2014-2015 eras. I know it’s possible, I know it’s been used previously in the wild.

Safety Kleen also had a blend that met Dexos specifications in the same era.

I have not seen that as an option as of yet in the wild, in this case.


That being said, Mobil is currently producing small amounts of group 3 already in Baytown. But it is strictly for internal use. I assume it doesn’t have a Dexos formulation yet, but I could be wrong.

The formulators I’ve talked to, have told me the only way to meet Dexos 1 Gen 3 specs currently, in a blend, is with PAO. Those blends have been tested before, but were never economical at scale because of the cost of product. So it will be interesting to see what Mobil does. If they also go down the road of using their G2 product and their own PAO. Or if they get their new group 3 certified for a Dexos formulation.

I suspect we will see something very soon though on this, as formulations start to change. I’ve not seen a full spec sheet on the new product, but I do know some samples are out in the wild.

The next however many months is going to be very interesting on how formulations change.

OK, yeah, the page is here:
https://www.exxonmobil.com/en/basestocks/products/group-ii-base-stocks

And for the EHC45/65 products:

Looks like you can really slash Group III use for the 5W-30, but it's a much smaller savings with the 0W-20.

If you are dropping dexos, for the 5W-30 you can go straight EHC and still be API SP/GF-6 (and I assume API SQ/GF-7).

This does at least illustrate how much of a step-up dexos is from the basic API approvals.