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April lubricants industry market update.
- Thread starter Foxtrot08
- Start date
It's live. Condensed it down a bit more and made it pretty vs my draft.
https://lydenoil.com/may-update
https://lydenoil.com/may-update
@Foxtrot08 Thank you sir!
Thank you.
4wd
$50 site donor 2026
Other than that Mrs Lincoln - how’d you like the play?
Not saying I agree with everything said in this panel interview but it is interesting.
I have to give this unfortunate “trust me bro” warning / reminder. I’m not going to publish or post anything that’s going to get me sued. There’s a lot of things that are being said in confidence, that’s happening in the market place.
Y’all are pretty good at identifying what’s going on. Formulation changes. Dexos approvals dropping here and there. These are not simply marketing tricks. But there’s fundamental changes happening in the lubricants industry right now.
As I can *legally* post things, I will continue to do so.
An example of this is Havoline Synthetic Blend DX 0w-20. (Also 5w-30) It is Dexos approved. It does physically exist and is going into the market place right now.
https://cglapps.chevron.com/sdspds/PDSDetailPage.aspx?docDataId=653407&docFormat=PDF
Y’all are pretty good at identifying what’s going on. Formulation changes. Dexos approvals dropping here and there. These are not simply marketing tricks. But there’s fundamental changes happening in the lubricants industry right now.
As I can *legally* post things, I will continue to do so.
An example of this is Havoline Synthetic Blend DX 0w-20. (Also 5w-30) It is Dexos approved. It does physically exist and is going into the market place right now.
https://cglapps.chevron.com/sdspds/PDSDetailPage.aspx?docDataId=653407&docFormat=PDF
Chevron's PDS says that it provides "Protection up to 5,000 miles."
Now this might be a "nothing to see here" point, but I thought it was interesting that a Dexos oil would be limited to 5K. Up till now these oils follow the OLM that often goes well beyond that mark. So is the up to 5K comment simply a typical comment made in the industry for an oil that has a lot of conventional? Or are you expecting more synblend oils that have the Dexos spec, but with drivers being recommended to change them more often?
Now this might be a "nothing to see here" point, but I thought it was interesting that a Dexos oil would be limited to 5K. Up till now these oils follow the OLM that often goes well beyond that mark. So is the up to 5K comment simply a typical comment made in the industry for an oil that has a lot of conventional? Or are you expecting more synblend oils that have the Dexos spec, but with drivers being recommended to change them more often?
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Every oil spec has a mileage then **follow OEM recommendations.
"Havoline Synthetic Blend DX 0w-20" strikes me as a bulk product. "The DX is for DeXos." Interestingly, though, now that they have a syn-blend formula that meets all the specs (for its marketing segment), maybe they'll keep making it cheaper when Group III comes back online.
I personally have no clue what percentage blend this is. Nor how they came up with the 5k OCI. I think they’re probably playing it conservatively on the recommendations for now until they have some real world data. At least, that’s how I would approach it.
in general, I think as we see more blends & non Dexos group 3s without real world testing. You will probably also see OCI be recommended in shorter periods. Some new base oils are coming into the market place that don’t have the wide spectrum real world testing yet. Same with new formulations, or old formulations being adjusted for modern specifications.
Chevron has always been conservative with the in service OCI. Even the full synthetic ProDS line is 10k when others are pushing 15-20k. Half the OCI for the blend vs the syn just looks like a conservative estimate from a company that hasn't shown to brag or overemphasize its pcmo's.
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Would you have a projected guestimate forecast based on the limited information you have for the increase cost for non group 3 base oils?
Based on your write up, it looks like somewhere between 53% to 251% but l didn't know if the industry had a better consensus/prediction?
Group 3s have increased around 250%.
Group 2s have increased around 53%.
Group 1s have increased around 75%
I expect by August / September we will be around 500% on G3s, with the way it’s trending, vs February G3 prices.
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I have heard the expression "plan for the worst and all surprises will be pleasant". Here is hoping for pleasant surprises!
Thanks for sharing with us what you can.
Thanks for sharing with us what you can.
For reference, that would put G3 base oils around $20 / gallon on the spot market.
The question is are we going to have demand destruction, or switching to blends to be more competitive then. As those who have G3s (contracted or produce) will be able to maintain being more competitive.
Then you have the whole allocation issue. Those who have, those who don’t. Etc.
The question is are we going to have demand destruction, or switching to blends to be more competitive then. As those who have G3s (contracted or produce) will be able to maintain being more competitive.
Then you have the whole allocation issue. Those who have, those who don’t. Etc.
This lines up with the YT video I posted, Lee Rhodus with Deckman Oil says in the video he anticipates the quick lube oil change places prices are going to double to the end user paying customer.
Well, their cost of product has already doubled, if not more in some cases. With another round of price increases this month. And I expect a price increase about once a month. So their product costs are certainly much higher.
Cost of doing business is also going up. And that all has to be accounted for as well. So assuming they have a good supplier that can get them oil. Then yeah, I expect the end users price to double. If not more.
Cost of doing business is also going up. And that all has to be accounted for as well. So assuming they have a good supplier that can get them oil. Then yeah, I expect the end users price to double. If not more.
