Money was cheap for a long time -- 20 years, really -- which has driven up the price of capital assets across the board. I remember helping my dad with his finances in 2004 and watching his face fall when the banker told him his jumbo CD would yield only 3% interest. Yeah, interest rates dropped even more after that, but the economy was getting juiced right after the tech boom cratered in 2001.
Anything holistically accurate or likely in this doom and gloom economic prediction.
- Thread starter GON
- Start date
A recession is not a matter of if, but when.
I thought that this was going to happen in 2020, but the fed printed so much funny money and released it into the economy so fast that it stopped the pending crash (triggering massive inflation in the process), but IMO it only delayed the inevitable.
There are a few things I watch closely that IMO signal a possible/pending recession...
1. Housing prices are overinflated - check.
2. The fed raises the interest rates sharply and refuses to lower them - check. This is a big one.
3. Precious metal prices start to rise - check.
4. Corporations start laying people off and unemployment starts to rise - check.
5. The super wealthy oligarchs start moving their money into safer investments and larger cash positions - check. Look at what Warren Buffett (and Berkshire Hathaway) has been doing, for example.
6. Presidential election year - check. If you look back in history, recessions/depressions/corrections tend to start just before or immediately after presidential elections.
7. Oil/Energy prices rise quickly and sharply - This is a MAJOR trigger and I'm watching this closely. If we see a big spike in the coming months, IMO watch out!
I thought that this was going to happen in 2020, but the fed printed so much funny money and released it into the economy so fast that it stopped the pending crash (triggering massive inflation in the process), but IMO it only delayed the inevitable.
There are a few things I watch closely that IMO signal a possible/pending recession...
1. Housing prices are overinflated - check.
2. The fed raises the interest rates sharply and refuses to lower them - check. This is a big one.
3. Precious metal prices start to rise - check.
4. Corporations start laying people off and unemployment starts to rise - check.
5. The super wealthy oligarchs start moving their money into safer investments and larger cash positions - check. Look at what Warren Buffett (and Berkshire Hathaway) has been doing, for example.
6. Presidential election year - check. If you look back in history, recessions/depressions/corrections tend to start just before or immediately after presidential elections.
7. Oil/Energy prices rise quickly and sharply - This is a MAJOR trigger and I'm watching this closely. If we see a big spike in the coming months, IMO watch out!
Not to mention... Tesla, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Apple, Nike, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Farmers Insurance, PayPal, eBay, Bristol Myers Squibb, The U.S. Army, Peloton, Hasbro, Stellantis, GM, Ford, Nokia, Geico, Cisco, CVS, T-Mobile, Tyson Foods, Anheuser-Busch, Disney/ESPN/Pixar, Paramount, Rolls Royce, Meta (Facebook), 3M, Dell, IBM, Twitter, UPS, Indeed, Snapchat, Carvana, and hundreds of other companies.
Fracking and cheap natural gas killed coal.
Here’s a simple graph to organize the interest rate data in the last 40 years.
Hermann
Site Donor 2023
Your first paragraph is why I sell when I achieve the 15-20% gains. I rebought the NVDA that I sold recently. Already up a $125 towards my $500 goal.
I was out of the S&P 500 till it dropped to around 4000. I go back into the index in my 401K last Early Oct. Since then I am up 31% when I am in the index.
China opens a new coal plant every week. We have been committing energy suicide in the USA the past 3.5 years.
Best new 4 letter word META is my feeling, not that I will be correct.
I bought both NVDA and META before NVDA 10/1 split. Kind of wish I bought more Meta or all Meta ... but what do I know. I dont normally do tech stocks but a believer in META
Plus 22 Nuclear plants under construction and 70 (SEVENTY) more planned. USA 2
I dont expect to see a rate cut anytime soon, not this year and maybe not next either. Rates are at historical norms, going to take more than this to slow this piping hot economy down. Maybe I just live in an area where everywhere I look people are out and spending in droves.
Possibly people losing jobs because of AI will slow things down. We will see in a few years.
There's not much left. They have already emptied a lot of it.
The previous release, which represented about half the reserve, is estimated to have lowered gas prices $0.15-0.25 per gallon. It didn't have a huge effect.
It is half-full and they've been restocking it since last summer.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W
A lot of people are moving into your area and spending money they are bringing with them. There's that.
And a net 272,000 jobs were created in May.
Absolutely, The spending is amazing
Quality full-time jobs that can support a family…. or low paid part-time jobs ?
There’s no denying the job losses are increasing across the USA.
100 full time jobs lost are replaced with 400 part time jobs with zero benefits.
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I mentioned Northrop Grumman job cuts, in your region of Arizona.
Imagine being a manager with security clearance making $150K per year with full benefits and Monday morning you find out your job has been eliminated.
I mentioned in another thread that no job is safe.
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Agreed no job is safe, but if your resume is that built up and you've networked, you'll find another $150k job in no time.
