Anything holistically accurate or likely in this doom and gloom economic prediction.

Yes, concur.

The only question I ask, Russia, China, Brazil, and a handful of smaller nations have been migrating away from the USD being used as a reserve currency. How does this impact the feds abilities if at all?
International contracts are written in dollars by off - shore banks. The only reason the dollar is used is as a medium of exchange. The dollar is instantly convertible to any other currency being the sole reason. The fed has zero control over this - the entire reason the contracts are done off shore. No central bank has authority over it - it’s hence unregulated. There not really even done in dollars - simply the exchange conversion rate is handled in dollar terms.

The BRIC’s don’t trade with each other. They all trade with China - specifically they sell commodities to China in Yuan. They then change those to dollars to trade with everyone else. China wants to assert its force and has convinced these countries to go along for various reasons. Still no one wants to hold Yuan. Even rich Chinese are trying to get their money out.

Not that anyone likes USD either, but there is no other legitimate median of exchange. The Europeans had hoped it would be the euro but that’s a mess. Gold doesn’t work as proven in 1971.

So the dollar stays.
 
The Great Stock Market Crash of the future will ring the Opening Bell for the Great Reset, ushering in the first globe-wide phase of digital one world currency, digital one world government and digital one world religion.

Could all happen by 2030.
I think that may be the plan but the recent elections in Europe and the repudiation of the WHO pandemic treaty show the 'people' may have other ideas.
 
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Do you do the food shopping in your household? Prices are up 30 or 40% but salaries aren't. Those that were just getting by aren't getting by now. Those on a fixed income have seen their buying power reduced drastically in the past few years. More young people are living with their parents than ever before because housing prices are so high. 'Disposable income' is low which affects restaurants,etc...and credit card debt is at an all time high and our national debt is something like 37 trillion dollars. Things aren't as rosy as you seem to think.
Again, I'm not saying that prices aren't up and some people aren't struggling, but these are people who were teetering on the edge anyway. These people always exist, and I know that, and it really stinks to be them, but the mistake is to generalize their situation to everyone. All I can report in my own life with the people I know is even with inflation and interest rates no one seems to be struggling. Take that for what it's worth, my life, which is also not generalizable, but it is what I see. This is what I see in my peer group, my family, and that is a diverse group from all education levels, walks of life, backgrounds, etc.

It is also the same thing I saw in 2008 and 2009. The media was all doom and gloom. We were told everyone was losing their houses and their jobs and it was going to take years if not a decade to recover. No one I know lost their house. Maybe a few people lost their jobs but they found new ones. My day-to-day and the day-to-day of those around me was unchanged. Life went on and the economy recovered much faster than the media said it would. Right now my day-to-day hasn't changed and life goes on...

It's not lost on me that many here on BITOG have been predicting this doom and gloom for 3 years now - at the time of their prediction, this inevitable outcome was imminent and right around the corner. They quoted national debt and bubbles and inflation and we're due for crisis and whatever and they've all been wrong.

So I'm just going to go on living my life as usual understanding that life can take a hard 180 at any point...but that's true all the time and not just right now.
 
International contracts are written in dollars by off - shore banks. The only reason the dollar is used is as a medium of exchange. The dollar is instantly convertible to any other currency being the sole reason. The fed has zero control over this - the entire reason the contracts are done off shore. No central bank has authority over it - it’s hence unregulated. There not really even done in dollars - simply the exchange conversion rate is handled in dollar terms.

The BRIC’s don’t trade with each other. They all trade with China - specifically they sell commodities to China in Yuan. They then change those to dollars to trade with everyone else. China wants to assert its force and has convinced these countries to go along for various reasons. Still no one wants to hold Yuan. Even rich Chinese are trying to get their money out.

Not that anyone likes USD either, but there is no other legitimate median of exchange. The Europeans had hoped it would be the euro but that’s a mess. Gold doesn’t work as proven in 1971.

So the dollar stays.
This is probably one of the most misunderstood concepts. Thank you, I agree, the dollar isn't going anywhere soon, but it doesn't stop people from using their misunderstanding of this as the basis for their doom and gloom predictions.

Where are the petrodollar people?
 
The market goes up, it goes down. Sometimes it needs a little correction, sometimes a lot. It has been running hot for quite a while and is due.
 
Right now my stock market allocation over all my accounts is about 30%. I am making money, so I am happy.

Bulls make money, Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. Thanks to Mr. Cramer this is my investment philosophy. When a potential gain is between 15-20% I take it 90% of the time. Am I getting rich, NO, but I am keeping my mind active and I use trading as a hobby.
 
Right now my stock market allocation over all my accounts is about 30%. I am making money, so I am happy.

Bulls make money, Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered. Thanks to Mr. Cramer this is my investment philosophy. When a potential gain is between 15-20% I take it 90% of the time. Am I getting rich, NO, but I am keeping my mind active and I use trading as a hobby.
While your quote can be true, like most quotes, it's more complicated than that. The other huge factor is where are you in terms of retirement/accumulation vs preservation of your investments. Those who are in the accumulation phase and +10 years from retirement and have a sufficient emergency fund are just throwing away significant gains by pulling money out of stocks right now for the "impending crash", which may happen tomorrow or next year or in two years or never. If my investments lose half their value tomorrow, what do I care when I don't need them for 20 years? If the crash isn't tomorrow, literally every single day the market is up I'm losing potential gains. This isn't being a pig, it's being strategic and understanding math and compounding.

Now if you're in preservation mode then it's a totally different discussion. If you just need to feel some sense of safety, it's a totally different discussion. Either way, the key is to understand you're leaving significant gains on the table, and that's fine, it's your life and money, so long as you realize what you're doing.
 
All market predictions are correct ... eventually. Per CNBC guest pundits the market will skyrocket, no wait, it will crash, no wait, it will skyrocket, no wait (repeat). Everyone has a prediction but actually they don't really know. Markets are moved by the unknown, as what is known is usually already priced in. The winning move is to stay invested, but keep some dry powder to capitalize on downturns.

I got a horse right here...
 
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Bears make money.
Not sure about that at all. Too many bears sit out and miss gains. I know, I work with 50-somethings that have never invested in stocks in their 401K ever, just cash, because they believed "stocks are bad you will lose your money". Stocks have beat cash over the long run immensely, even with the dips and crashes along the way. Not even close.
 
While your quote can be true, like most quotes, it's more complicated than that. The other huge factor is where are you in terms of retirement/accumulation vs preservation of your investments. Those who are in the accumulation phase and +10 years from retirement and have a sufficient emergency fund are just throwing away significant gains by pulling money out of stocks right now for the "impending crash", which may happen tomorrow or next year or in two years or never. If my investments lose half their value tomorrow, what do I care when I don't need them for 20 years? If the crash isn't tomorrow, literally every single day the market is up I'm losing potential gains. This isn't being a pig, it's being strategic and understanding math and compounding.

Now if you're in preservation mode then it's a totally different discussion. If you just need to feel some sense of safety, it's a totally different discussion. Either way, the key is to understand you're leaving significant gains on the table, and that's fine, it's your life and money, so long as you realize what you're doing.
I've read Warren Buffett's quote that it isn't timing the market but time in the market that grows wealth. Then there's Jack Bogle, to paraphrase: instead of betting on a spin of the roulette wheel (individual stock), bet on the casino (broad index funds).

BTW, the S&P 500 underwent a 23% correction in 2022 that also hit the bond market pretty hard. So if we're in a bubble, that bubble is less than two years old. My bond holdings still haven't recovered, while my stock funds have regained their losses. Real estate looks overextended, though. I sure wouldn't be holding any commercial REITs right now.
 
I don't know much about the WV economy but l wish you the best.
I'm retired so doesn't matter to me. They are trying to kill coal in WV and all coal power plants are supposed to be shut down by 2030. The dirty little secret is that the mid-atlantic US gets their power from WV. And guess what they are building as fast as they can on any plot of land they can find.......Date farms.
 
I've read Warren Buffett's quote that it isn't timing the market but time in the market that grows wealth. Then there's Jack Bogle, to paraphrase: instead of betting on a spin of the roulette wheel (individual stock), bet on the casino (broad index funds).

BTW, the S&P 500 underwent a 23% correction in 2022 that also hit the bond market pretty hard. So if we're in a bubble, that bubble is less than two years old. My bond holdings still haven't recovered, while my stock funds have regained their losses. Real estate looks overextended, though. I sure wouldn't be holding any commercial REITs right now.
That's my strategy. I tell young people if you want Million$ in your portfolio, it will take 30 years so you'd better get started now. It may never happen, but it sure as heck won't happen overnight.
Of course it will take investing in yourself, as well.
Or buy a Lotto ticket, which I have never done.
 
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International contracts are written in dollars by off - shore banks. The only reason the dollar is used is as a medium of exchange. The dollar is instantly convertible to any other currency being the sole reason. The fed has zero control over this - the entire reason the contracts are done off shore. No central bank has authority over it - it’s hence unregulated. There not really even done in dollars - simply the exchange conversion rate is handled in dollar terms.

The BRIC’s don’t trade with each other. They all trade with China - specifically they sell commodities to China in Yuan. They then change those to dollars to trade with everyone else. China wants to assert its force and has convinced these countries to go along for various reasons. Still no one wants to hold Yuan. Even rich Chinese are trying to get their money out.

Not that anyone likes USD either, but there is no other legitimate median of exchange. The Europeans had hoped it would be the euro but that’s a mess. Gold doesn’t work as proven in 1971.

So the dollar stays.
About "nobody wants to hold yuan".

What China did since 1949 was this model called bird cage economy. Their financial head at the time was a "self taught" financial genius who concluded that sooner or later a financial crisis like the 97 Asia Financial Crisis would hit and wipe out their new country, so they limit currency exchange like most communist nation and keep their economy internal.

Sure they did prevent a few financial crisis, but that would eventually still spill over into commodity and black market. There is always an official and unofficial price of something, and food / commodity was rationed because there is no demand and supply to set the price and they ended up with either shortage or oversupply. This eventually even lead to protests and instability or foreign ownership of too many assets.

This is probably the main reason nobody wants to hold Yuan other than Zimbabwe.
 
@PWMDMD
My Merrill Account is mostly a play account. I have accumulated wealth and find this a way to stay sharp mentally. Just playing around I have made enough money to trade vehicles again since I bought the Maverick, without touching any principle in my accounts.

I made a lot of money during the late 1990's tech boom. When Alan Greenspan mentioned "Irrational Exuberance" the next day I sold everything, which had already made $120K on a $80K investment . Still have that money and it is still making money every day. Yes I live below my means and enjoy my simple somewhat frugal life. I'm not out there trying to live the La Vida Loco!
Got gold and silver?
I do. It has done well in the 15 years Ive been stacking. 90% of my gold was purchased at $1250 oz ave. Even have fractional gold in grams and 1/10 oz for bartering when TSHTF. 30 rolls of constitutional silver also, Mostly dimes. Lots of silver eagles.
 
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I've read Warren Buffett's quote that it isn't timing the market but time in the market that grows wealth. Then there's Jack Bogle, to paraphrase: instead of betting on a spin of the roulette wheel (individual stock), bet on the casino (broad index funds).

BTW, the S&P 500 underwent a 23% correction in 2022 that also hit the bond market pretty hard. So if we're in a bubble, that bubble is less than two years old. My bond holdings still haven't recovered, while my stock funds have regained their losses. Real estate looks overextended, though. I sure wouldn't be holding any commercial REITs right now.
Buffett is very good at avoiding risks. He / Charles said they are better at avoiding the dragon than slaying the dragon. They are in the casino business too (insurance company is the casino if you think about it).

Bubble is definitely more than 2 years old. Sovereign funds know, and decided to pump money into VCs and startups because they can't buy enough of anything without overpaying, so they have to take risk to build new companies at near 0% interest rate.

T-Bill is now paying 5%+ for short term. A lot of the "free money" would dry up or demand 5% + risk premium.
 
I'm old enough to remember the "stagflation" of the 1970s & early 1980s-when prices rose so fast that people couldn't afford basic necessities, bad things happened then too.
During those times wood burning stoves sold like hotcakes and seemingly overnight empty lots where previous builders had conveniently dumped all of their leftover scrap lumber were cleaned out. If you were living paycheck to paycheck as many were, those were scary times being able to afford to keep the house lit and warmed, its occupants fed and at least a little gasoline in the car to get back and forth to work. Very scary for many. Here is hoping it doesn't come to that again.
 
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