Just saw family from New England, North Carolina, South Carolina, Illinois and all are doing just fine in a mixture of occupations. I have friends all over the US and again I'm not hearing the doom and gloom. There are lots of people complaining about prices but everyone is gainfully employed and no one is losing their cars or house. I'm not saying there aren't people struggling but my question is are these people who live in areas that struggle most of the time anyway? How much of this doom and gloom is media generated? Hello "election year". I don't watch much media and I'm not experiencing any doom or gloom in my life and so it's hard to take this idea seriously.
Anything holistically accurate or likely in this doom and gloom economic prediction.
- Thread starter GON
- Start date
I don't know much about the WV economy but l wish you the best.
These are never seen until after they happen.
WV is consistently among the five poorest states.
This was true during periods of rapid growth and remains true today.
Beautiful country to drive through and maybe a good retirement venue, since housing and the labor to remodel it is so cheap.
...and they are very rare and random such that no economic forecasting tools can predict them. So...why worry?
The 2001 911 recession was a black swan. The 2009 recession hit when things were rocking and borrowed money was being passed to everyone. The 2020 recession was a black swan. I guess we're due for a Rock N Roll recession when borrowed money is being passed around. Canada is racking up $40 B yearly deficits and no young people can afford any type of home. Bring it on!
So things are bad there when the rest of the US is good. Things are bad there when the rest of the US is bad. The only distinguishing feature right now is this is part of a narrative being pushed during an election year?
Seems right...
Legitimate question for my own interest. Of these people what percentage are under the 70K median income?
There is lots of talk about a bifocated economy. I don’t really know anyone under that amount except my kids friends who mostly still live at home.
I honestly have no idea. For the family I just saw one works in the smelting industry, one sells school buses and 18-wheelers, another is an attorney in M&A, and a few are school teachers. As far as friends I've seen recently, one is head of maintenance for a company that owns groups homes, one is in college admissions, one teaches in a community college, one is a lab rat for a pharmaceutical company, one sells medical equipment, and one owns a small tree service and landscaping business.
Dent is a "perma-bear" that has been horifically wrong consistantly. Most investment banks are raising their year end targets for the SP500. Anything can happen anytime but Dent is likely the LAST person I would tune in to. If he is ever "right" its like a broken clock being "right" twice a day.
It is equality unrealistic to predict that economy will keep going with no downturn and a what? 92% drop? Come on now that's too big of a drop.
At the moment I have a feeling that we are approaching a soft landing in the US, may not be really a good landing as it may trigger a small recession or stay with high inflation for a while. Other foreign economy may collapse, and relatively we have higher interest rate and stability to absorb a downturn than foreign nations (China, Europe, Japan). CRE is not doing well but it is likely going to have limited problem instead of a systematic risk like 2008's residential real estate.
I do think eventually many older offices need to be torn down for residential buildings to balance out the new WFH trend after the pandemic. People need more space at home than at work and without this conversion we will never solve our CRE vs residential problem.
Foreign (China, Europe, etc) money flooding into the US may trigger their own economies collapse, and then gradually come back to haunt us.
At the moment I have a feeling that we are approaching a soft landing in the US, may not be really a good landing as it may trigger a small recession or stay with high inflation for a while. Other foreign economy may collapse, and relatively we have higher interest rate and stability to absorb a downturn than foreign nations (China, Europe, Japan). CRE is not doing well but it is likely going to have limited problem instead of a systematic risk like 2008's residential real estate.
I do think eventually many older offices need to be torn down for residential buildings to balance out the new WFH trend after the pandemic. People need more space at home than at work and without this conversion we will never solve our CRE vs residential problem.
Foreign (China, Europe, etc) money flooding into the US may trigger their own economies collapse, and then gradually come back to haunt us.
This is the crux of the problem with trying to predict the future. We all know the next downturn is coming, that's a given, the hard part is knowing when and for how long. In the meantime, people who believe the downturn is near, pull out early missing giant gains for something that while inevitable, may not happen for years.
Yes the higher interest rates in America are sucking money from the rest of the world who are trying to cut their interest rates in order to stimulate their own economies. It’s a double edged sword from a global perspective.
GON
$150 Site Donor 2025
Taxes make WV a challenging choice for folks retiring.
Hermann
Site Donor 2023
Rule #1-Don't fight the FED
Rule #2- See rule #1
Rule #2- See rule #1
GON
$150 Site Donor 2025
Yes, concur.
The only question I ask, Russia, China, Brazil, and a handful of smaller nations have been migrating away from the USD being used as a reserve currency. How does this impact the feds abilities if at all?
Dent is a perpetual bear... doom and gloom sells a lot of books.
Do you do the food shopping in your household? Prices are up 30 or 40% but salaries aren't. Those that were just getting by aren't getting by now. Those on a fixed income have seen their buying power reduced drastically in the past few years. More young people are living with their parents than ever before because housing prices are so high. 'Disposable income' is low which affects restaurants,etc...and credit card debt is at an all time high and our national debt is something like 37 trillion dollars. Things aren't as rosy as you seem to think.
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Nick1994
$100 site donor 2024
Everyone's always talking about the big crash that's coming.
Even last year in the investor thread there was several folks on here saying "SELL SELL SELL" and "BONDS BONDS BONDS". Well, they probably missed out on a lot of gains.
My dad gets into all the hysterics of how the world is crumbling. Yawn.
Even last year in the investor thread there was several folks on here saying "SELL SELL SELL" and "BONDS BONDS BONDS". Well, they probably missed out on a lot of gains.
My dad gets into all the hysterics of how the world is crumbling. Yawn.
What I see is the long term bond rate have to eventually increase, but since it is not affordable the fed has been issuing a lot of short term bonds at higher rate instead of long term bonds and now we have yield curve reversion. My understanding is most of banks' funding source (savings) align with short term bond rates and their lending / investment align with long term bond rates, and this yield curve reversion can cause banking industry problem (as we have seen in SVB, First Republic, Signature Bank, etc). I believe Fed eventually has to raise rate high enough to undo the yield curve reversion, and if they have to keep the inflation low they either have to land the economy (hopefully soft landing), or convince the public to raise taxes to pay off some / more of the debts.
