Anything holistically accurate or likely in this doom and gloom economic prediction.

[GON]

I don't see this happening, printing money devalues , and causes rise in prices, not crashes.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/e...market-crash-worse-2008-crisis-bubble-bubbles

 

[LenZee]

I don't see this happening, printing money devalues , and causes rise in prices, not crashes.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/e...market-crash-worse-2008-crisis-bubble-bubbles

Lot's of "experts" out there, I'm thinking some are trying to manipulate the market for their own benefit.

 

[Oillover]

I don't see this happening, printing money devalues , and causes rise in prices, not crashes.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/e...market-crash-worse-2008-crisis-bubble-bubbles

 

[PWMDMD]

...and if it happens? Unless you're concerned with SORR, in which case you should be looking at asset allocation independently from this prediction, who cares? 2008 came and went and as I've said many times my life was really unchanged. My business continued to do well and life went on as usual. Fairfield county, CT seemed unfazed and I suspect central MA will too with the next downturn/crash. There was a large disconnect from what I was being told was horrible and what I experienced in 2008 and I always keep that in the back of mind. Crash, no crash, I'm not close to retirement and so I'm just going to keep on keeping on since I can't control it anyway.

 

[bullwinkle]

We do seem to be a little overdue for the next correction... First the dotcom crash of ~2000 or so, then the Great Recession of 2008, not sure if the pandemic in '19-'20 counts or not? There are some crazy bubbles in housing, even car loans-someone's going to be left standing when the music stops again!

 

[bullwinkle]

View attachment 224205

I'm old enough to remember the "stagflation" of the 1970s & early 1980s-when prices rose so fast that people couldn't afford basic necessities, bad things happened then too.

 

[mr_boring]

#1 - this hasn't been a bubble for 14 years.
#2 - it's a doozy of a bubble. I wish it would go ahead and pop.

 

[loneryder]

I don't see this happening, printing money devalues , and causes rise in prices, not crashes.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/e...market-crash-worse-2008-crisis-bubble-bubbles

I think you have to ask yourself.....Is Blackrock or any of the large investment banks going to allow this to happen. They may not care about us but they care about themselves.

 

[b_b]

We do seem to be a little overdue for the next correction... First the dotcom crash of ~2000 or so, then the Great Recession of 2008, not sure if the pandemic in '19-'20 counts or not? There are some crazy bubbles in housing, even car loans-someone's going to be left standing when the music stops again!

do you know why I make the big bucks? My job is figure out what the music is going to do six months, a year from now. I'm standing here tonight, and I don't hear a sound.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Well, the economy is so strong and seems to be so resilient, something has to give sooner or later. The question is when and how much, which is always the question. Most of the prognosticators around here have had the economy blowing up for the last few years now... GDP has been on a tear for years... Higher inflation is a product of high employment, but high unemployment tends to lower overall crime and has other benefits. Of course corporate profits are the key driver of inflation. With corporate profits generally comes inflation and a bullish stock market.

The stock market is not the economy, but your 401K is probably at all time highs. The market continues to set new highs.
Regardless, you should make your money work for you regardless of economic conditions and be ready for a cyclical economy.

A quote from the article, which sounds like pure fear mongering to me:
"I think we're going to see the S&P go down 86% from the top, and the Nasdaq 92%. A hero stock like Nvidia, as good as it is, and it is a great company, [goes] down 98%. Boy, this is over," Dent stressed.

 

[supton]

How many doom and gloom predictions come out every week? Isn't it like one per week, from someone claiming to be someone?

I'm sure they will be correct, some day. But so far, anyone's ability to predict the stock market makes a broken clock look like it's keeping perfect time by comparison.

 

[Rmay635703]

I think you have to ask yourself.....Is Blackrock or any of the large investment banks going to allow this to happen. They may not care about us but they care about themselves.

Blackrock and its ilk got a $5T federal grant in 2020 and a smaller one in 2018, China and others are divesting US assets,

Our “economy” is only being buoyed by tons of foreign money coming home, this could instantly reverse if any failure occurs or any interest cut occurs.
If reversed our debt gets stuck internally then Blackrock and the Fed will not actually have any mechanism to avoid or manipulate the situation in any useful fashion, aka it won’t matter what they want.

There are 6 larger regional banks that are functionally bankrupt due to a combo of Corporate real estate and auto.

These banks are supposedly not to big to fail but if they stop getting assistance and do fail 50-100 other banks will fail alongside them due to the usual BS just amongst smaller entities.

The corporate real estate and auto crisis dwarf the Great Recession of 2008.

Home Inventory has gone up 1000x in parts of Florida , the Freddie/Fanny 10% delinquency rates might expand before “other stuff” explodes.
As an example where my mom lives they haven’t had a foreclosure since 2019, across the street and several other spots went through foreclosure to new owners in the last few weeks which is extremely rare (everything is always REO back to the bank)
These buyers were quick to hop but they may find it was a bad idea.

 

[loneryder]

Blackrock and its ilk got a $5T federal grant in 2020 and a smaller one in 2018, China and others are divesting US assets,

Our “economy” is only being buoyed by tons of foreign money coming home, this could instantly reverse if any failure occurs or any interest cut occurs.
If reversed our debt gets stuck internally then Blackrock and the Fed will not actually have any mechanism to avoid or manipulate the situation in any useful fashion, aka it won’t matter what they want.

There are 6 larger regional banks that are functionally bankrupt due to a combo of Corporate real estate and auto.

These banks are supposedly not to big to fail but if they stop getting assistance and do fail 50-100 other banks will fail alongside them due to the usual BS just amongst smaller entities.

The corporate real estate and auto crisis dwarf the Great Recession of 2008.

Home Inventory has gone up 1000x in parts of Florida , the Freddie/Fanny 10% delinquency rates might expand before “other stuff” explodes.
As an example where my mom lives they haven’t had a foreclosure since 2019, across the street and several other spots went through foreclosure to new owners in the last few weeks which is extremely rare (everything is always REO back to the bank)
These buyers were quick to hop but they may find it was a bad idea.

All previous crashes have been initiated by some unthought of event which caused a cascade of events. Mankind is just not as smart as we think we are. That's why this bad stuff happens. As for govt. plans and policies, they never consider any unintended consequences.
I can't argue with anything you've said.

 

[loneryder]

Well, the economy is so strong and seems to be so resilient, something has to give sooner or later. The question is when and how much, which is always the question. Most of the prognosticators around here have had the economy blowing up for the last few years now... GDP has been on a tear for years... Higher inflation is a product of high employment, but high unemployment tends to lower overall crime and has other benefits. Of course corporate profits are the key driver of inflation. With corporate profits generally comes inflation and a bullish stock market.

The stock market is not the economy, but your 401K is probably at all time highs. The market continues to set new highs.
Regardless, you should make your money work for you regardless of economic conditions and be ready for a cyclical economy.

A quote from the article, which sounds like pure fear mongering to me:
"I think we're going to see the S&P go down 86% from the top, and the Nasdaq 92%. A hero stock like Nvidia, as good as it is, and it is a great company, [goes] down 98%. Boy, this is over," Dent stressed.

The economy may be strong in your area but not in the rest of the country. Talking about the main street economy that people live in.

 

[SC Maintenance]

2008 was caused by a deflationary collapse of housing debt , among other assets.

I see the odds of deflation collapse low. But if it happens they will print like never imagined. If you do the research you will find most every inflation starts with deflation they try to print their way out of.

Also note that being correct but too early is the same as being wrong.

 

[cptbarkey]

Mr Dent needs to take another look at his crystal ball.

• His 2011 book goes on to suggest consumer spending will begin to plummet in 2012 with the Dow bottoming out somewhere between 3,000 and 5,600 in 2014. After hitting bottom, stocks will experience a mini-rally in 2015–2017 before falling into a final bottom during the 2019–2023 period, when the 45–50 age group troughs because the U.S. birth rate reached its own low in 1973.[6] The Dow Jones ultimately doubled in that timeframe.[1]
• In 2012 the "Dent Tactical Advantage ETF," symbol DENT, was de-listed having consistently under-performed the market for three years.[7]
• In 2013, Dent predicted the market would crash again in the Summer of 2013 and would take a further year and a half to recover.[8]
• In 2014, while promoting his book The Demographic Cliff in Australia, he predicted a major Australian housing market correction beginning in 2014 after an even bigger one in China.[9] He also predicted that the price of gold would fall to USD$700 an ounce, later revising this prediction to 2017.[10]
• On December 10, 2016, Dent predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial average could fall 17,000 points as a result of Donald Trump's election win. Less than two weeks later, Dent reversed his opinion and thinks there is short term growth for the US stock market, but demographic forces will keep the economic growth stagnant in the longer term.[11]

 

[Astro14]

I don't see this happening, printing money devalues , and causes rise in prices, not crashes.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/e...market-crash-worse-2008-crisis-bubble-bubbles

Another bear. He predicts disaster.

Meh.

He’s been wrong quite a bit.

Remember -

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”​

― Yogi Berra

 

[Leo99]

Sooner or later, every prediction will come true.

 

[fdcg27]

There are always those who self-identify as economists who proclaim that doom is right around the corner.
I can't see this. The US economy continues humming along and there are still more jobs than available workers.
We might relieve this with a more inclusive immigration and visa policy, but that's another discussion.
We are seeing some corrections in both the housing and new vehicles markets, but those were bound to happen.
Work force participation is near an all-time high, so we probably need foreign workers and their labor can only help us.
NVIDIA losing 98% of its market value?
Umm, no. Half I could see, since the company appears overvalued, but 98%?
There are always those who like to dwell on the worst possible scenario. Harry is one such prognosticator.

 

[Rmay635703]

2008 was caused by a deflationary collapse of housing debt , among other assets.

I see the odds of deflation collapse low. But if it happens they will print like never imagined. If you do the research you will find most every inflation starts with deflation they try to print their way out of.

Also note that being correct but too early is the same as being wrong.

Corporate real estate and the auto market are already deflating.

Housing deflating in 2008 also caused a variety of vehicle types to loose demand and deflate and caused commercial properties to deflate in many areas.

I fail to see why there is a belief that interrelated markets are all of a sudden completely insulated from one another.

As for workforce participation an ever increasing number of people are Increasingly underemployed , I don’t need to look far to see multiple folks in my own life that can’t get the hours they need and are falling behind.

There wouldn’t be an auto loan failure if everyone was earning at the same rates with the same costs as compared to 2 years back, they could still make payments. The number of unactioned delinquent home loans wouldn’t be as high as it is if everyone was still earning at the same levels as when they got the loan, worth also noting that half of delinquent loans were created from before the pandemic so interest isn’t the only issue here either