So let’s look at the volume side of the synthetic blend market. Really two spaces here:
OEM fill - Ford, for example hasn’t moved passed syn blends (yet), Some Subaru, some CJDR, and some other brands. These are your dealership programs. Dealerships are strongly advised to use their program.
And you have the Quick Lube or “installer” marker / independent auto shops.
Amsoil is not going after the dealer market with this product. So, let’s look at the installer market.
Could a one off indecent shop buy this product? Sure. But if they’re already not worried about price, and their customer base is loyal to them, why wouldn’t they just upsell to a full synthetic?
The quick lube market is nearly all price driven. Why? Because when you’re doing say, 150 oil changes a day. That adds up. And because you’re the price taker.
Who is the price maker? Well, first off the OEM dealership. After that, your branded chains - Jiffy Lube (Shell) VIOC (Valvoline). They carry a major brand that will command a price premium.
So your quick lubes have to settle in below them for price. Does a “brand” Help? Maybe, in some markets yes, in other markets, no. Do you have a retail gasoline station with a wide presence in that state? If so, then a brand will help because its market recognition. If the brand does not, then it won’t help much. Because you’re then reduced to price fighting.
Example of this is Take 5. They were branded Castrol for a long time, with a Mobil 1 upsell. Now, I believe they’re almost exclusively Duramax from Reladyne. Which, is a house brand just like mine.
So you’re reduced to price fighting. You can’t command the margin needed to carry all the overhead of a brand. So you need to trim all that off and get bloody on price.
Most of the world is not BITOG. People who care about their oil (users here) will do research, read and pick their favorite brand. boutique, synthetic, brand, whatever you want to go with. Pick your price point and go with it. Amsoil really dominates this market place - the DIY customers. They can command a premium for it. After that is your mass market synthetics - Mobil 1, PUP, etc.
Your “I care about my car, but I don’t change my own oil” market, goes to the dealership.
The “I don’t trust the dealership, but I want a brand” goes to Jiffy, VIOC type places.
Then finally, like my S/O before she met me, “my car has wheels, most of the time. And I think it takes oil” types to a quick lube is near by and open. Most people fall into this category.
Does that last group of people, care about a brand? They probably don’t even know brands. So upselling them is hard - let alone their price point of what they’re willing to spend.
The reason why I said this is a mature, fading market is the volume. 5-6 years ago, we used to in bound ~24 tanker loads of synthetic blends a week between my different divisions. Now it’s about ~7. Flip side of that, we would in bound 2-3 a week of full synthetics in that same period. Now we in bound probably 10-12 full synthetics loads a week. Volume is down over all on the PCEO market and will continue to decrease for the foreseeable future at about a 7% year over year rate.
Extended drain intervals (whether you believe in them or not is another thread), EVs and also, most importantly - people going back to the dealership.
Dealership business is booming. Dealerships want to capture that market. Get people coming in the doors, into the service bays, into the show rooms. Average age of cars is going up. And they want to sell cars.
The DIY business is also, very good right now. Because people want to save money. Changing your own oil, with a full synthetic, is an easy way to save what? $100 vs a dealership? Times 2 cars, twice a year - who wouldn’t want to save $400 or so if you use a full synthetic, name brand, a year. Or more?
Maybe amsoil will get some DIY’ers on it. But the volume there is basically going to be robbed from the full synthetic line up. Which, they already do a good job at. Which, goes back to why? More SKUs, more base oils to get in / store, more additives. Your cost of acquiring a consumer isn’t going down. Your overhead is going to go up. Just… I don’t get it.
I’ve worked my butt off to change our direction out of the PCEO market over the last 5 years. And to focus more on the Commercial and Industrial market where, the majority of the market cares about the products. Is there the volume in say, a cold heading lubricant, that there is syn blend PCEO? No. But, better margins and more sustainable business.
We all know HPL’s big business is compressor oils. It’s that for a reason. Mobil controls a lot of the C&I world. Citgo’s bread and butter is trucking. P66 used to be the name in Mining fluids. Chevron is natural gas compression and Agricultural. Etc.
Amsoil has a great name in the DIY market place. I just don’t see this as being a good fit with their super premium branding.
Why pay more where you can use a less expensive oil that meets or even exceeds the requirements? 
