Originally Posted by cashmoney
Despite the BS from those that claim they "knew" it was gonna crash "this time", the reality is that nobody knows nothing. And there are no guarantees - the market could stay down from this day for the next 10 years, or it could go straight up tomorrow for the next 10 years. If you want to be an investor instead of a gambler, and be successful at it, invest for the long term and buy in regularly and without fail over a long period of time.
I don't disagree with you. There's no "knowing". I don't see anyone here saying they "knew" when and how much the market would crash, just that it was "when", not "if". That said, it's a bit "head in sand" to look at 40 years of mostly sustained growth and think "this will never come to an end". There were also a ton of heavy indicators over the last year, and last 3 months in particular.
You also keep talking about "time". That's great. What about those folks who have been invested for 30+ years and made tons of money--and will be drawing on it in 5-10 years. IMO, the folks who didn't seriously rebalance in the last year were just greedy. Sure, you need time in the market. You're also not going to live forever either. At a certain point, you look at the returns you've made and say "'I've done pretty well, this is good enough".
In 2003, I didn't touch a thing. 2030 was a long time away. Now, it's not so long away. As you get closer to using that money, it makes sense to pay a bit more attention and reduce risk.
Originally Posted by Wolf359
The basic analysis is that while some people pick the right time to get out of the market, they don't pick the right time to get back in. And there are always people claiming the market is over valued. I had a friend who got out over 2 years ago and missed out on a lot of the increases from last year. Basically you need to make two calls right, the one to get out and the one to get in. If you miss one or two, you will lose over the long term. Most people can't do it. There are probably lots of people who get out all the time. The ones who happen to get out at the right time could just be based on luck, and they don't have the right amount of luck both times.
well, you're right on both counts. People have been saying the sky is falling for the last year or so. If you pulled out a year ago, you're at the break even point vs. staying in it. If you pulled out 6 months ago, you're just a little ahead. If you pulled out 1-3 months ago, you're a good bit ahead.
now of course comes the tricky part: when to get back in. I can tell you what I'm going to do: wait until international manufacturing supply chains get sorted out, particularly in China, and for the full extent of the virus to be known, and for Global debt to come more inline. Honestly I think it will be a couple of years, not month. And I'll get back in incrementally, in targeted index funds.