401 K took a beating!
- Thread starter P10crew
- Start date
- Status
I have enough in the 401k to fund a 30+ year retirement. So on weeks like this I don't look - why should I, no need to sell to fund current expenses.
When the market is down it is time to buy not sell. Only the sheep get fleeced when the market goes into a correction. And there will always be corrections for various reasons. The long term trend in the market is up. Folks that panic and sell when the market drops suddenly should be saving money in CDs and not be in the stock market.
When the market is down it is time to buy not sell. Only the sheep get fleeced when the market goes into a correction. And there will always be corrections for various reasons. The long term trend in the market is up. Folks that panic and sell when the market drops suddenly should be saving money in CDs and not be in the stock market.
Last edited:
Originally Posted by P10crew
Back to the original question.... how's your 401k holding up to this correction?
as I mentioned in the other thread, I moved all of my 401K into a money market about in mid-December--so it's increased by the contribution amount since then, and that's about it.
I'll put most of it back in an index fund at some point.
Back to the original question.... how's your 401k holding up to this correction?
as I mentioned in the other thread, I moved all of my 401K into a money market about in mid-December--so it's increased by the contribution amount since then, and that's about it.
I'll put most of it back in an index fund at some point.
Originally Posted by cashmoney
The long term trend in the market is up.
This gets thrown around a lot, but it's not entirely true. If you entered the market in 1982 or so, then is certainly is true. If entered in 1930, you'd have to hold for about 25 years just to break even, adjusted for inflation. If you entered in 1960, you'd have to wait almost 30 years.
If you look at 40 years of data, then all you see it an upward curve, with the blip of the financial crisis in there. If you look at 100 years of data, it's a bit more nuanced. If you're retirement age and you're not going to be contributing for much longer, than it's entirely possible you will never see the valuation that you once had. Personally, I think it's pretty likely. History has shown that it could take a very long time to get back to the valuations of January, 2020--and by the time it gets there, if you have a coupe of years to retirement you may have already started drawing it down before it ever gets there.
If you're 30 years old and you just started saving 5 years ago, then keeping everything in a long-range index fund makes sense. Your future contributions are just going to buying low-priced stocks. If you're at or close to retirement age, it very well may make sense to just cut your losses now before they get worse.
The long term trend in the market is up.
This gets thrown around a lot, but it's not entirely true. If you entered the market in 1982 or so, then is certainly is true. If entered in 1930, you'd have to hold for about 25 years just to break even, adjusted for inflation. If you entered in 1960, you'd have to wait almost 30 years.
If you look at 40 years of data, then all you see it an upward curve, with the blip of the financial crisis in there. If you look at 100 years of data, it's a bit more nuanced. If you're retirement age and you're not going to be contributing for much longer, than it's entirely possible you will never see the valuation that you once had. Personally, I think it's pretty likely. History has shown that it could take a very long time to get back to the valuations of January, 2020--and by the time it gets there, if you have a coupe of years to retirement you may have already started drawing it down before it ever gets there.
If you're 30 years old and you just started saving 5 years ago, then keeping everything in a long-range index fund makes sense. Your future contributions are just going to buying low-priced stocks. If you're at or close to retirement age, it very well may make sense to just cut your losses now before they get worse.
This is part of why I don't have a 401K, aside from the fact that I don't think I can?
Originally Posted by Ws6
This is part of why I don't have a 401K, aside from the fact that I don't think I can?
That doesn't really make sense. If your'e not at a company that doesn't offer one, that's one thing like if you're a 1099. But that doesn't mean you can't have an IRA or Roth IRA or just have regular cash savings in a mutual fund.
My accounts are basically knocked back to where they were in December.
This is part of why I don't have a 401K, aside from the fact that I don't think I can?
That doesn't really make sense. If your'e not at a company that doesn't offer one, that's one thing like if you're a 1099. But that doesn't mean you can't have an IRA or Roth IRA or just have regular cash savings in a mutual fund.
My accounts are basically knocked back to where they were in December.
Originally Posted by JOD
Originally Posted by P10crew
Back to the original question.... how's your 401k holding up to this correction?
as I mentioned in the other thread, I moved all of my 401K into a money market about in mid-December--so it's increased by the contribution amount since then, and that's about it.
I'll put most of it back in an index fund at some point.
I did the same for:
401K both
IRA both
Brokerage accounts
Lets face it, when Warren Buffett has $140 billion in cash.... something is not right
Corona virus, artificially low interest rates, plunge protection team on speed dial, Yield inversion, massive corporate stock buy backs and CEOs dumping their stocks, housing bubble, student debt bubble, Fed debt, foreign banks on the verge of collapse, trade war, freight cargo way down in USA, personal loan delinquency way up, $80 billion in nightly bank repos , 12 years since a recession hit...., Etc.... Etc....
There is a BITOG member that I sometimes PM to ask / pick his brain about his outlook and strategies. Very smart and respected member gives me his game plan.
I told him in Oct - Dec I was selling and taking profits for the reasons I mentioned above. I'm in my early 50's and simply reducing my exposure before the house of cards comes crashing down.
When crash will happen ?
Sooner rather than later....
Originally Posted by P10crew
Back to the original question.... how's your 401k holding up to this correction?
as I mentioned in the other thread, I moved all of my 401K into a money market about in mid-December--so it's increased by the contribution amount since then, and that's about it.
I'll put most of it back in an index fund at some point.
I did the same for:
401K both
IRA both
Brokerage accounts
Lets face it, when Warren Buffett has $140 billion in cash.... something is not right
Corona virus, artificially low interest rates, plunge protection team on speed dial, Yield inversion, massive corporate stock buy backs and CEOs dumping their stocks, housing bubble, student debt bubble, Fed debt, foreign banks on the verge of collapse, trade war, freight cargo way down in USA, personal loan delinquency way up, $80 billion in nightly bank repos , 12 years since a recession hit...., Etc.... Etc....
There is a BITOG member that I sometimes PM to ask / pick his brain about his outlook and strategies. Very smart and respected member gives me his game plan.
I told him in Oct - Dec I was selling and taking profits for the reasons I mentioned above. I'm in my early 50's and simply reducing my exposure before the house of cards comes crashing down.
When crash will happen ?
Sooner rather than later....
Typically when threads like this start heating up its usually time to think about buying a little, but not on a Friday.....................
Originally Posted by hatt
Originally Posted by P10crew
Back to the original question.... how's your 401k holding up to this correction?
I haven't even logged in to look. Don't care. Those numbers don't mean anything unless you're getting close to retirement.
This is how I feel... some of the portfolios I have took a beating, but overall still ahead. My lowest rate of return for 2019 was 10.59%, my highest was almost 35%. At worst, one of them has a YTD of about -12%. I still have decades till retirement though.
Originally Posted by P10crew
Back to the original question.... how's your 401k holding up to this correction?
I haven't even logged in to look. Don't care. Those numbers don't mean anything unless you're getting close to retirement.
This is how I feel... some of the portfolios I have took a beating, but overall still ahead. My lowest rate of return for 2019 was 10.59%, my highest was almost 35%. At worst, one of them has a YTD of about -12%. I still have decades till retirement though.
Originally Posted by Wolf359
Originally Posted by Ws6
This is part of why I don't have a 401K, aside from the fact that I don't think I can?
That doesn't really make sense. If your'e not at a company that doesn't offer one, that's one thing like if you're a 1099. But that doesn't mean you can't have an IRA or Roth IRA or just have regular cash savings in a mutual fund.
My accounts are basically knocked back to where they were in December.
I don't have one available to me. Also, maybe I'm just paranoid, but I prefer to "store" my money in the form of properties, etc. It's how my family made it through WWII Germany with their money relatively in-tact, those who didn't come to America. Owning a chunk of Berlin---even a very small chunk---proved very solvent for them. I just don't like imaginary money.
Originally Posted by Ws6
This is part of why I don't have a 401K, aside from the fact that I don't think I can?
That doesn't really make sense. If your'e not at a company that doesn't offer one, that's one thing like if you're a 1099. But that doesn't mean you can't have an IRA or Roth IRA or just have regular cash savings in a mutual fund.
My accounts are basically knocked back to where they were in December.
I don't have one available to me. Also, maybe I'm just paranoid, but I prefer to "store" my money in the form of properties, etc. It's how my family made it through WWII Germany with their money relatively in-tact, those who didn't come to America. Owning a chunk of Berlin---even a very small chunk---proved very solvent for them. I just don't like imaginary money.
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by JOD
Originally Posted by P10crew
Back to the original question.... how's your 401k holding up to this correction?
as I mentioned in the other thread, I moved all of my 401K into a money market about in mid-December--so it's increased by the contribution amount since then, and that's about it.
I'll put most of it back in an index fund at some point.
I did the same for:
401K both
IRA both
Brokerage accounts
Lets face it, when Warren Buffett has $140 billion in cash.... something is not right
Corona virus, artificially low interest rates, plunge protection team on speed dial, Yield inversion, massive corporate stock buy backs and CEOs dumping their stocks, housing bubble, student debt bubble, Fed debt, foreign banks on the verge of collapse, trade war, freight cargo way down in USA, personal loan delinquency way up, $80 billion in nightly bank repos , 12 years since a recession hit...., Etc.... Etc....
There is a BITOG member that I sometimes PM to ask / pick his brain about his outlook and strategies. Very smart and respected member gives me his game plan.
I told him in Oct - Dec I was selling and taking profits for the reasons I mentioned above. I'm in my early 50's and simply reducing my exposure before the house of cards comes crashing down.
When crash will happen ?
Sooner rather than later....
Good thinking on your part, some of the problem with todays snowflake investors is they expect to put money into investments and they are "supposed" to grow, when they dont, they wonder why. Its that simple. Government is not in charge, though some think so, of propping up the value of corporations so you can make money.
Its supply and demand, people either want a stock or not, if you invest in stocks with real earnings and low multiples you will be fine.
Markets have always gone up and down, in fact this little "blip" is a big nothing. 3000 points? It doesnt even rate in the top 20 declines! Come on already *L*
By the way, percentages are the way you measure market moves, not by points, almost laughable the way the press reports stock market losses in points rather then the truth percentage.
Last but not least, Warren Buffet, why is something not right? Do you know that Warren Buffet only invested in value stocks? He unlike most people, pays attention to the actual earnings of the companies he invests in, not snowflake expectations. He invests in value, you know, companies that actually turn a profit and companies that actually return those profits to shareholders.
It drives me nuts if people trash him and those who do I suggest reading about him, he is self made, He started off with investing SIX THOUSAND DOLLARS.
His first invest money he started saving from his paper route when he was a kid, he bought stocks of companies that hand real products that you cold hold in your hand, see real value.
Anyway, there is nothing to complain about in a stock market that has grown on the upside so fast and takes a downturn to last years levels.
Ever think what will happen when the market goes down 40 or 50% some day?
The reason the market went down is the values of the companies you invest in are sky-high. People want a fast buck and investing in companies who are promising future results/earnings vs real earnings will decline the fastest.
Originally Posted by JOD
Originally Posted by P10crew
Back to the original question.... how's your 401k holding up to this correction?
as I mentioned in the other thread, I moved all of my 401K into a money market about in mid-December--so it's increased by the contribution amount since then, and that's about it.
I'll put most of it back in an index fund at some point.
I did the same for:
401K both
IRA both
Brokerage accounts
Lets face it, when Warren Buffett has $140 billion in cash.... something is not right
Corona virus, artificially low interest rates, plunge protection team on speed dial, Yield inversion, massive corporate stock buy backs and CEOs dumping their stocks, housing bubble, student debt bubble, Fed debt, foreign banks on the verge of collapse, trade war, freight cargo way down in USA, personal loan delinquency way up, $80 billion in nightly bank repos , 12 years since a recession hit...., Etc.... Etc....
There is a BITOG member that I sometimes PM to ask / pick his brain about his outlook and strategies. Very smart and respected member gives me his game plan.
I told him in Oct - Dec I was selling and taking profits for the reasons I mentioned above. I'm in my early 50's and simply reducing my exposure before the house of cards comes crashing down.
When crash will happen ?
Sooner rather than later....
Good thinking on your part, some of the problem with todays snowflake investors is they expect to put money into investments and they are "supposed" to grow, when they dont, they wonder why. Its that simple. Government is not in charge, though some think so, of propping up the value of corporations so you can make money.
Its supply and demand, people either want a stock or not, if you invest in stocks with real earnings and low multiples you will be fine.
Markets have always gone up and down, in fact this little "blip" is a big nothing. 3000 points? It doesnt even rate in the top 20 declines! Come on already *L*
By the way, percentages are the way you measure market moves, not by points, almost laughable the way the press reports stock market losses in points rather then the truth percentage.
Last but not least, Warren Buffet, why is something not right? Do you know that Warren Buffet only invested in value stocks? He unlike most people, pays attention to the actual earnings of the companies he invests in, not snowflake expectations. He invests in value, you know, companies that actually turn a profit and companies that actually return those profits to shareholders.
It drives me nuts if people trash him and those who do I suggest reading about him, he is self made, He started off with investing SIX THOUSAND DOLLARS.
His first invest money he started saving from his paper route when he was a kid, he bought stocks of companies that hand real products that you cold hold in your hand, see real value.
Anyway, there is nothing to complain about in a stock market that has grown on the upside so fast and takes a downturn to last years levels.
Ever think what will happen when the market goes down 40 or 50% some day?
The reason the market went down is the values of the companies you invest in are sky-high. People want a fast buck and investing in companies who are promising future results/earnings vs real earnings will decline the fastest.
Last edited:
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by JOD
Originally Posted by P10crew
Back to the original question.... how's your 401k holding up to this correction?
as I mentioned in the other thread, I moved all of my 401K into a money market about in mid-December--so it's increased by the contribution amount since then, and that's about it.
I'll put most of it back in an index fund at some point.
I did the same for:
401K both
IRA both
Brokerage accounts
Lets face it, when Warren Buffett has $140 billion in cash.... something is not right
Corona virus, artificially low interest rates, plunge protection team on speed dial, Yield inversion, massive corporate stock buy backs and CEOs dumping their stocks, housing bubble, student debt bubble, Fed debt, foreign banks on the verge of collapse, trade war, freight cargo way down in USA, personal loan delinquency way up, $80 billion in nightly bank repos , 12 years since a recession hit...., Etc.... Etc....
There is a BITOG member that I sometimes PM to ask / pick his brain about his outlook and strategies. Very smart and respected member gives me his game plan.
I told him in Oct - Dec I was selling and taking profits for the reasons I mentioned above. I'm in my early 50's and simply reducing my exposure before the house of cards comes crashing down.
When crash will happen ?
Sooner rather than later....
...and when it does, and reaches its nadir, I may consider buying some stocks. I'll bet a few thousand on what I think is the next "Microsoft", and see where it takes me in 20 years.
Originally Posted by JOD
Originally Posted by P10crew
Back to the original question.... how's your 401k holding up to this correction?
as I mentioned in the other thread, I moved all of my 401K into a money market about in mid-December--so it's increased by the contribution amount since then, and that's about it.
I'll put most of it back in an index fund at some point.
I did the same for:
401K both
IRA both
Brokerage accounts
Lets face it, when Warren Buffett has $140 billion in cash.... something is not right
Corona virus, artificially low interest rates, plunge protection team on speed dial, Yield inversion, massive corporate stock buy backs and CEOs dumping their stocks, housing bubble, student debt bubble, Fed debt, foreign banks on the verge of collapse, trade war, freight cargo way down in USA, personal loan delinquency way up, $80 billion in nightly bank repos , 12 years since a recession hit...., Etc.... Etc....
There is a BITOG member that I sometimes PM to ask / pick his brain about his outlook and strategies. Very smart and respected member gives me his game plan.
I told him in Oct - Dec I was selling and taking profits for the reasons I mentioned above. I'm in my early 50's and simply reducing my exposure before the house of cards comes crashing down.
When crash will happen ?
Sooner rather than later....
...and when it does, and reaches its nadir, I may consider buying some stocks. I'll bet a few thousand on what I think is the next "Microsoft", and see where it takes me in 20 years.
Originally Posted by Wolf359
Originally Posted by Ws6
This is part of why I don't have a 401K, aside from the fact that I don't think I can?
That doesn't really make sense. If your'e not at a company that doesn't offer one, that's one thing like if you're a 1099. But that doesn't mean you can't have an IRA or Roth IRA or just have regular cash savings in a mutual fund.
My accounts are basically knocked back to where they were in December.
Yes ^^ and so true about the decline to last year levels, I guess many are too young in here to actually know, one day a real decline/real crash will happen.
This decline is actually healthy, brings some value into the over blown P/E ratios, actually would have to decline another 10% *L* but who is counting?
Bottom line a much greater downturn will happen in ones lifetime making this look like cotton candy
).
You used to be able to keep money in the bank to earn interest, now if you want to see any earnings you need to invest because the interest rates area at all time lows to keep economies going, we are on life support.
That is where greed kicks in, instead of people looking for good solid investments they go for speculative growth companies, nothing wrong with that either but just do not complain if one loses a lot of money, if the speculation fails.
Others could simply look for solid returns in the 7% range like banks used to offer, compounded and reinvested it will turn into a sizable amount of money over time.
Im not suggesting this for people just starting out in life but as you get older, its safe to move a sizable amount of money into these types of investments.
You should only invest what you can afford to lose, the money you can not afford to lose should be in solid securities.
Because, one day, the real market downturn will happen... you cant count on propping up the market when you are full of red ink and it cant get much more full.
its inevitable = https://www.usdebtclock.org
Originally Posted by Ws6
This is part of why I don't have a 401K, aside from the fact that I don't think I can?
That doesn't really make sense. If your'e not at a company that doesn't offer one, that's one thing like if you're a 1099. But that doesn't mean you can't have an IRA or Roth IRA or just have regular cash savings in a mutual fund.
My accounts are basically knocked back to where they were in December.
Yes ^^ and so true about the decline to last year levels, I guess many are too young in here to actually know, one day a real decline/real crash will happen.
This decline is actually healthy, brings some value into the over blown P/E ratios, actually would have to decline another 10% *L* but who is counting?
Bottom line a much greater downturn will happen in ones lifetime making this look like cotton candy
).You used to be able to keep money in the bank to earn interest, now if you want to see any earnings you need to invest because the interest rates area at all time lows to keep economies going, we are on life support.
That is where greed kicks in, instead of people looking for good solid investments they go for speculative growth companies, nothing wrong with that either but just do not complain if one loses a lot of money, if the speculation fails.
Others could simply look for solid returns in the 7% range like banks used to offer, compounded and reinvested it will turn into a sizable amount of money over time.
Im not suggesting this for people just starting out in life but as you get older, its safe to move a sizable amount of money into these types of investments.
You should only invest what you can afford to lose, the money you can not afford to lose should be in solid securities.
Because, one day, the real market downturn will happen... you cant count on propping up the market when you are full of red ink and it cant get much more full.
its inevitable = https://www.usdebtclock.org
Last edited:
Originally Posted by demarpaint
Typically when threads like this start heating up its usually time to think about buying a little, but not on a Friday.....................
The golden rule I use in times like this is only play the " Fun Money", my casino bucks. Much of that is simply to hold my interest in things. That's anything I can't swallow a 50% temporary loss in. Of course temporary is 🥺subject to interpretation.
I've been only playing half of my investments since late last Fall. Those markets had gotten too extended somewhat into the dangerous EXUBERANCE STAGE of market lifecycle. If you have an idea how markets really work you know it was just a matter of time before it dropped again drastically.
A few days ago I noticed that the talking heads on MS NBC weren't saying anything positive. They are typically more like cheerleaders correct? They usually have a lot of explanations and uplifting comments ( often too many IMO) and this was lacking all week. Then one day they had warren Buffett on. He was asked about his holdings and while of course he's not gonna tell anybody what to do what he did comment that he was sitting mostly in a huge % cash and he wasn't in any hurry to jump in to the dip. There hasn't been but a little dip buying going on either by the other big guys either. They've been carrying on more or less in this fashion all week long. ( I'm retired so I watch this stuff rather than reruns of Roseanne).
One thing I was pretty shocked about Monday was that big shot doctor Coming out with that statement to expect corona to be deeply affecting our lives and would be coming to ravage us terribly in the coming year. In my estimation that Has to be about the equivalent to screaming fire in a crowded theater. Right or wrong it's a really dumb / irresponsible thing to do and not just for the sake of markets. I'm pretty sure that's what caused the administration to put a muzzle on public updates pending review.
There's much more going on here than than anyone's health and prosperity believe me. It's more about November, power and a shattered market / recession is their biggest most hopeful vehicle to get it. I'd also take a lot of the mainstream media with a big grain of salt as well. So with this in mind Id be really 🙈 careful dip buying. Don't go betting the farm in hope of making a killing, the back swamp land maybe but not the proverbial farm or you may well end up..."buying the farm" instead.
Typically when threads like this start heating up its usually time to think about buying a little, but not on a Friday.....................
The golden rule I use in times like this is only play the " Fun Money", my casino bucks. Much of that is simply to hold my interest in things. That's anything I can't swallow a 50% temporary loss in. Of course temporary is 🥺subject to interpretation.
I've been only playing half of my investments since late last Fall. Those markets had gotten too extended somewhat into the dangerous EXUBERANCE STAGE of market lifecycle. If you have an idea how markets really work you know it was just a matter of time before it dropped again drastically.
A few days ago I noticed that the talking heads on MS NBC weren't saying anything positive. They are typically more like cheerleaders correct? They usually have a lot of explanations and uplifting comments ( often too many IMO) and this was lacking all week. Then one day they had warren Buffett on. He was asked about his holdings and while of course he's not gonna tell anybody what to do what he did comment that he was sitting mostly in a huge % cash and he wasn't in any hurry to jump in to the dip. There hasn't been but a little dip buying going on either by the other big guys either. They've been carrying on more or less in this fashion all week long. ( I'm retired so I watch this stuff rather than reruns of Roseanne).
One thing I was pretty shocked about Monday was that big shot doctor Coming out with that statement to expect corona to be deeply affecting our lives and would be coming to ravage us terribly in the coming year. In my estimation that Has to be about the equivalent to screaming fire in a crowded theater. Right or wrong it's a really dumb / irresponsible thing to do and not just for the sake of markets. I'm pretty sure that's what caused the administration to put a muzzle on public updates pending review.
There's much more going on here than than anyone's health and prosperity believe me. It's more about November, power and a shattered market / recession is their biggest most hopeful vehicle to get it. I'd also take a lot of the mainstream media with a big grain of salt as well. So with this in mind Id be really 🙈 careful dip buying. Don't go betting the farm in hope of making a killing, the back swamp land maybe but not the proverbial farm or you may well end up..."buying the farm" instead.
JHZR2
Staff member
It's interesting to watch. Correction is healthy - some will lose out but the market will keep balance to some extent.
Its hard to see large sums of money disappear.
It's harder to time the market.
Older folks may have good rationale to rebaseline allocations, but even retired folks should keep an appropriate amount of risk.
For most this is a buying opportunity. Some will make money by trading even. If the knife is still falling, so be it, those dollar cost, div reinvesting, etc should get efficiencies along the path.
Its hard to see large sums of money disappear.
It's harder to time the market.
Older folks may have good rationale to rebaseline allocations, but even retired folks should keep an appropriate amount of risk.
For most this is a buying opportunity. Some will make money by trading even. If the knife is still falling, so be it, those dollar cost, div reinvesting, etc should get efficiencies along the path.
Haven't checked results. The only reason I signed on yesterday was to put in some buy orders on funds. More to come I'm sure...
I have $274k in my 401k. At the end of January (January 24th), I pulled everything out of mutual funds and moved it into CASH.
I did all of this based on technical analysis and a hunch I thought a correction was coming based on trends.
The virus may have triggered the correction to happen, but it was "due". I think I'll let it slide down to another 10-15% (that's my prediction) and then jump back in with both feet.
I did all of this based on technical analysis and a hunch I thought a correction was coming based on trends.
The virus may have triggered the correction to happen, but it was "due". I think I'll let it slide down to another 10-15% (that's my prediction) and then jump back in with both feet.
- Status
Similar threads
