I've got all my money tied up in Nascar collector plates so no market worries for me! 🤘...‚
401 K took a beating!
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Originally Posted by cashmoney
Despite the BS from those that claim they "knew" it was gonna crash "this time", the reality is that nobody knows nothing. And there are no guarantees - the market could stay down from this day for the next 10 years, or it could go straight up tomorrow for the next 10 years. If you want to be an investor instead of a gambler, and be successful at it, invest for the long term and buy in regularly and without fail over a long period of time.
I don't disagree with you. There's no "knowing". I don't see anyone here saying they "knew" when and how much the market would crash, just that it was "when", not "if". That said, it's a bit "head in sand" to look at 40 years of mostly sustained growth and think "this will never come to an end". There were also a ton of heavy indicators over the last year, and last 3 months in particular.
You also keep talking about "time". That's great. What about those folks who have been invested for 30+ years and made tons of money--and will be drawing on it in 5-10 years. IMO, the folks who didn't seriously rebalance in the last year were just greedy. Sure, you need time in the market. You're also not going to live forever either. At a certain point, you look at the returns you've made and say "'I've done pretty well, this is good enough".
In 2003, I didn't touch a thing. 2030 was a long time away. Now, it's not so long away. As you get closer to using that money, it makes sense to pay a bit more attention and reduce risk.
Originally Posted by Wolf359
The basic analysis is that while some people pick the right time to get out of the market, they don't pick the right time to get back in. And there are always people claiming the market is over valued. I had a friend who got out over 2 years ago and missed out on a lot of the increases from last year. Basically you need to make two calls right, the one to get out and the one to get in. If you miss one or two, you will lose over the long term. Most people can't do it. There are probably lots of people who get out all the time. The ones who happen to get out at the right time could just be based on luck, and they don't have the right amount of luck both times.
well, you're right on both counts. People have been saying the sky is falling for the last year or so. If you pulled out a year ago, you're at the break even point vs. staying in it. If you pulled out 6 months ago, you're just a little ahead. If you pulled out 1-3 months ago, you're a good bit ahead.
now of course comes the tricky part: when to get back in. I can tell you what I'm going to do: wait until international manufacturing supply chains get sorted out, particularly in China, and for the full extent of the virus to be known, and for Global debt to come more inline. Honestly I think it will be a couple of years, not month. And I'll get back in incrementally, in targeted index funds.
Despite the BS from those that claim they "knew" it was gonna crash "this time", the reality is that nobody knows nothing. And there are no guarantees - the market could stay down from this day for the next 10 years, or it could go straight up tomorrow for the next 10 years. If you want to be an investor instead of a gambler, and be successful at it, invest for the long term and buy in regularly and without fail over a long period of time.
I don't disagree with you. There's no "knowing". I don't see anyone here saying they "knew" when and how much the market would crash, just that it was "when", not "if". That said, it's a bit "head in sand" to look at 40 years of mostly sustained growth and think "this will never come to an end". There were also a ton of heavy indicators over the last year, and last 3 months in particular.
You also keep talking about "time". That's great. What about those folks who have been invested for 30+ years and made tons of money--and will be drawing on it in 5-10 years. IMO, the folks who didn't seriously rebalance in the last year were just greedy. Sure, you need time in the market. You're also not going to live forever either. At a certain point, you look at the returns you've made and say "'I've done pretty well, this is good enough".
In 2003, I didn't touch a thing. 2030 was a long time away. Now, it's not so long away. As you get closer to using that money, it makes sense to pay a bit more attention and reduce risk.
Originally Posted by Wolf359
The basic analysis is that while some people pick the right time to get out of the market, they don't pick the right time to get back in. And there are always people claiming the market is over valued. I had a friend who got out over 2 years ago and missed out on a lot of the increases from last year. Basically you need to make two calls right, the one to get out and the one to get in. If you miss one or two, you will lose over the long term. Most people can't do it. There are probably lots of people who get out all the time. The ones who happen to get out at the right time could just be based on luck, and they don't have the right amount of luck both times.
well, you're right on both counts. People have been saying the sky is falling for the last year or so. If you pulled out a year ago, you're at the break even point vs. staying in it. If you pulled out 6 months ago, you're just a little ahead. If you pulled out 1-3 months ago, you're a good bit ahead.
now of course comes the tricky part: when to get back in. I can tell you what I'm going to do: wait until international manufacturing supply chains get sorted out, particularly in China, and for the full extent of the virus to be known, and for Global debt to come more inline. Honestly I think it will be a couple of years, not month. And I'll get back in incrementally, in targeted index funds.
Seems like a buying opportunity. The Coronavirus will pass and people will get back to work and supply chains will be reformed.
Originally Posted by csandste
I got a fair (for me) amount of money into cash in late '18 and it certainly tempered my gains last year. Happy for all those who "timed the market" in January, just as I'm happy for someone who wins $10,000 on a scratch game at the Circle K, but I don't believe that anyone can predict every turn. I remember coming home after an early morning meeting in 2008 and finding I'd lost about thirty grand since the night before--and I was a couple of years from retirement. I didn't panic and it all came back, although I'm gotten more conservative in my retirement I still have a fair amount of money in the market.
Although I'm largely in index funds and ETF's, I'm a bit leery of their ability to protect in a down market. When others get out they have to sell since they by nature don't have a lot of cash sitting around to cover things. In the meantime I'm not looking at my accounts. Why panic myself in old age? Been through '88, been through the early 2000's, been through '08. The market was frothy anyway. The gains and losses are all on paper until you cash in.
Good post. I agree.
But as a person approaches retirement age they need to have less risk.
Only a fool (not you) would ignore the warning signs. Back before the housing bubble all I heard was mortgage rates resetting..... with ARM going up and causing payment to go up $700-1000 per month.
People who should not of been approved to buy a house were now struggling to stay afloat. I was obviously thinking something not right.
But I rode it out and was fine. I'm older today than I was in 2008.
I got a fair (for me) amount of money into cash in late '18 and it certainly tempered my gains last year. Happy for all those who "timed the market" in January, just as I'm happy for someone who wins $10,000 on a scratch game at the Circle K, but I don't believe that anyone can predict every turn. I remember coming home after an early morning meeting in 2008 and finding I'd lost about thirty grand since the night before--and I was a couple of years from retirement. I didn't panic and it all came back, although I'm gotten more conservative in my retirement I still have a fair amount of money in the market.
Although I'm largely in index funds and ETF's, I'm a bit leery of their ability to protect in a down market. When others get out they have to sell since they by nature don't have a lot of cash sitting around to cover things. In the meantime I'm not looking at my accounts. Why panic myself in old age? Been through '88, been through the early 2000's, been through '08. The market was frothy anyway. The gains and losses are all on paper until you cash in.
Good post. I agree.
But as a person approaches retirement age they need to have less risk.
Only a fool (not you) would ignore the warning signs. Back before the housing bubble all I heard was mortgage rates resetting..... with ARM going up and causing payment to go up $700-1000 per month.
People who should not of been approved to buy a house were now struggling to stay afloat. I was obviously thinking something not right.
But I rode it out and was fine. I'm older today than I was in 2008.
For those of you very near or in retirement, keep 3-5 years of money for expenses in liquid accounts - meaning keep it in savings, laddered CDs, and very short term bonds.
When the stock market craters like this, and if it stays down for as long as 3-5 years, you should be able to live off of your money in the "liquid bucket" instead of having to sell stocks when the market is down.
Instances where the market has gone down and stayed down without any interim peaks for more than 3-5 years are extremely rare. in this specific case, look past the noise,. Very little has changed in reality about corporate America's ability to make money in the long run.
This is a way better plan than thinking you are smarter than most wall street brokers and somehow control the crystal ball that lets you know when to pull money out and back into equities.
The stock market is running a huge sale. Anyone who is younger and still working and in the "accumulation phase" of their life should be way happy to buy stocks when they go on sale. Folks that are at or near retirement need to ignore the financial news, stop looking at their 401Ks for a while. The smartest plan for them - Don't just stand there Do Nothing.
When the stock market craters like this, and if it stays down for as long as 3-5 years, you should be able to live off of your money in the "liquid bucket" instead of having to sell stocks when the market is down.
Instances where the market has gone down and stayed down without any interim peaks for more than 3-5 years are extremely rare. in this specific case, look past the noise,. Very little has changed in reality about corporate America's ability to make money in the long run.
This is a way better plan than thinking you are smarter than most wall street brokers and somehow control the crystal ball that lets you know when to pull money out and back into equities.
The stock market is running a huge sale. Anyone who is younger and still working and in the "accumulation phase" of their life should be way happy to buy stocks when they go on sale. Folks that are at or near retirement need to ignore the financial news, stop looking at their 401Ks for a while. The smartest plan for them - Don't just stand there Do Nothing.
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I think I'll take my $3000.00 tax refund and buy a stock with 17.5% annual dividend (paid monthly) just as soon as I see a little upside to this.
What do you all think?
What do you all think?
Nice to see the bleeding slowed today. I am back in black, YTD.
Settle down; ride it out.
Settle down; ride it out.
Originally Posted by WyrTwister
Originally Posted by P10crew
High risk - all 3 funds
Now I just watched on fox that all or most of our antibiotics are made in China. What the [censored] how dammed dumb are we?
Pretty dumb !
But , I did not think antibiotics worked on viruses ?
Not specifically, but drugs like azithromycin will reduce lung inflammation. They arent "killing the virus" or inhibiting its reproductive cycle, but they are helping the patient.
Originally Posted by P10crew
High risk - all 3 funds
Now I just watched on fox that all or most of our antibiotics are made in China. What the [censored] how dammed dumb are we?
Pretty dumb !
But , I did not think antibiotics worked on viruses ?
Not specifically, but drugs like azithromycin will reduce lung inflammation. They arent "killing the virus" or inhibiting its reproductive cycle, but they are helping the patient.
Originally Posted by P10crew
High risk - all 3 funds
Now I just watched on fox that all or most of our antibiotics are made in China. What the [censored] how dammed dumb are we?
If you are not retiring in the next 5 years don't look at day to day variation.
Consider the population number in China, they are probably already the biggest customer for antibiotics, why do you think it is dumb to make them over there?
High risk - all 3 funds
Now I just watched on fox that all or most of our antibiotics are made in China. What the [censored] how dammed dumb are we?
If you are not retiring in the next 5 years don't look at day to day variation.
Consider the population number in China, they are probably already the biggest customer for antibiotics, why do you think it is dumb to make them over there?
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Usually after a correction it goes up way beyond what it was before the downturn. Think of all the people who put money into the market around 2009-2010? They made like 300 percent more than what they put in.
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Originally Posted by JohnG
I think I'll take my $3000.00 tax refund and buy a stock with 17.5% annual dividend (paid monthly) just as soon as I see a little upside to this.
What do you all think?
I lost a good bit this week, but went ahead and bought some more while it was super low, so eventually I'll make good money on those 3 or 4 stocks I bought. I'd wait and see if it keeps going down.
I think I'll take my $3000.00 tax refund and buy a stock with 17.5% annual dividend (paid monthly) just as soon as I see a little upside to this.
What do you all think?
I lost a good bit this week, but went ahead and bought some more while it was super low, so eventually I'll make good money on those 3 or 4 stocks I bought. I'd wait and see if it keeps going down.
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Originally Posted by cashmoney
Originally Posted by Pew
Originally Posted by JohnG
You absolutely leave it alone. You'll only lose money if you sell.
I've been down this road about 4 times in my career, it all worked out in the end. Come retirement time at 60, bought bonds, Annuities, and Dividend stocks. I won't be concerned until companies start cutting dividends.
Originally Posted by PimTac
If you are young then stay the course. As the markets drop you are buying more shares at lower prices.
Thanks gents. This makes me wonder, if/when the market crashes, the shares would be low. Maybe it's a good time to buy the shares that I can afford and dabble around in the market? Maybe I can learn a thing or two while the market is down and mistakes don't hurt as much.
Anyone that says they know what direction the market will go in the short run, like for intervals of anything less than a year, is either deluded or a liar
The market experiences intermittent economic ups and downs but its long term trend in the last 100 years has been up.
Despite the BS from those that claim they "knew" it was gonna crash "this time", the reality is that nobody knows nothing. And there are no guarantees - the market could stay down from this day for the next 10 years, or it could go straight up tomorrow for the next 10 years. If you want to be an investor instead of a gambler, and be successful at it, invest for the long term and buy in regularly and without fail over a long period of time.
This is why I fired my broker. Lol He pulled me out of a stock where most of my money was in and then it went up $75k 6 months later. Nobody knows what it's going to do so no sense in paying someone.
Originally Posted by Pew
Originally Posted by JohnG
You absolutely leave it alone. You'll only lose money if you sell.
I've been down this road about 4 times in my career, it all worked out in the end. Come retirement time at 60, bought bonds, Annuities, and Dividend stocks. I won't be concerned until companies start cutting dividends.
Originally Posted by PimTac
If you are young then stay the course. As the markets drop you are buying more shares at lower prices.
Thanks gents. This makes me wonder, if/when the market crashes, the shares would be low. Maybe it's a good time to buy the shares that I can afford and dabble around in the market? Maybe I can learn a thing or two while the market is down and mistakes don't hurt as much.
Anyone that says they know what direction the market will go in the short run, like for intervals of anything less than a year, is either deluded or a liar
The market experiences intermittent economic ups and downs but its long term trend in the last 100 years has been up.
Despite the BS from those that claim they "knew" it was gonna crash "this time", the reality is that nobody knows nothing. And there are no guarantees - the market could stay down from this day for the next 10 years, or it could go straight up tomorrow for the next 10 years. If you want to be an investor instead of a gambler, and be successful at it, invest for the long term and buy in regularly and without fail over a long period of time.
This is why I fired my broker. Lol He pulled me out of a stock where most of my money was in and then it went up $75k 6 months later. Nobody knows what it's going to do so no sense in paying someone.
Originally Posted by JohnG
I think I'll take my $3000.00 tax refund and buy a stock with 17.5% annual dividend (paid monthly) just as soon as I see a little upside to this.
What do you all think?
I would redo your withholding so you can invest $250 a month more than you are now. Put that money to work instead of loaning it to Uncle Sam.
I think I'll take my $3000.00 tax refund and buy a stock with 17.5% annual dividend (paid monthly) just as soon as I see a little upside to this.
What do you all think?
I would redo your withholding so you can invest $250 a month more than you are now. Put that money to work instead of loaning it to Uncle Sam.
Bad timing for us.. another 6 months the house will be paid off and we'd be able to buy buy buy. I'll just have to keep from checking the 401k till next month maybe.
I am pretty excited as I have a nice sum of 401k sitting in money market in ready to move.
Originally Posted by madRiver
I am pretty excited as I have a nice sum of 401k sitting in money market in ready to move.
How much is this ‘nice sum' ?
I am pretty excited as I have a nice sum of 401k sitting in money market in ready to move.
How much is this ‘nice sum' ?
Originally Posted by JOD
well, you're right on both counts. People have been saying the sky is falling for the last year or so. If you pulled out a year ago, you're at the break even point vs. staying in it. If you pulled out 6 months ago, you're just a little ahead. If you pulled out 1-3 months ago, you're a good bit ahead.
now of course comes the tricky part: when to get back in. I can tell you what I'm going to do: wait until international manufacturing supply chains get sorted out, particularly in China, and for the full extent of the virus to be known, and for Global debt to come more inline. Honestly I think it will be a couple of years, not month. And I'll get back in incrementally, in targeted index funds.
The trick is figuring out when to get back in. A milder drop today and an uptick at the end. We'll see how it goes next week. No idea if it will be months or years or even days. But past analysis shows that there's only a few days where the market makes a big move up and if you sit it out and miss those, you miss the majority of the gains, the other times it just goes sideways.
well, you're right on both counts. People have been saying the sky is falling for the last year or so. If you pulled out a year ago, you're at the break even point vs. staying in it. If you pulled out 6 months ago, you're just a little ahead. If you pulled out 1-3 months ago, you're a good bit ahead.
now of course comes the tricky part: when to get back in. I can tell you what I'm going to do: wait until international manufacturing supply chains get sorted out, particularly in China, and for the full extent of the virus to be known, and for Global debt to come more inline. Honestly I think it will be a couple of years, not month. And I'll get back in incrementally, in targeted index funds.
The trick is figuring out when to get back in. A milder drop today and an uptick at the end. We'll see how it goes next week. No idea if it will be months or years or even days. But past analysis shows that there's only a few days where the market makes a big move up and if you sit it out and miss those, you miss the majority of the gains, the other times it just goes sideways.
Originally Posted by Mr Nice
Originally Posted by madRiver
I am pretty excited as I have a nice sum of 401k sitting in money market in ready to move.
How much is this ‘nice sum' ?
Nearly six figures a financial advisor recommended sit.
Originally Posted by madRiver
I am pretty excited as I have a nice sum of 401k sitting in money market in ready to move.
How much is this ‘nice sum' ?
Nearly six figures a financial advisor recommended sit.
I don't know why folks spend 3%+ on an advisor
Go to Vanguard Target retirement funds:
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/target-retirement/#/
They are all made up of the following etf's the older your the less of VTI and VXUS you have. Go to finance.yahoo.com and you can break the percentage down
costs/year
BND Domestic Bonds .03%
BNDX Global Bonds .09%
VTI Domestic Stocks .03%
VXUS Global Stocks .09%
BSV Short Term Bonds .07%
For instance I use this guideline: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTINX/holdings?p=VTINX
You then find it is made up of: VTBIX, VTSMX, VTIPX, VTIBX\, and VGTSX and it shows you percentage of each..but here is the trick..use the ETF's instead to drop your cost to like zero!!!!
Go to Vanguard Target retirement funds:
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/target-retirement/#/
They are all made up of the following etf's the older your the less of VTI and VXUS you have. Go to finance.yahoo.com and you can break the percentage down
costs/year
BND Domestic Bonds .03%
BNDX Global Bonds .09%
VTI Domestic Stocks .03%
VXUS Global Stocks .09%
BSV Short Term Bonds .07%
For instance I use this guideline: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VTINX/holdings?p=VTINX
You then find it is made up of: VTBIX, VTSMX, VTIPX, VTIBX\, and VGTSX and it shows you percentage of each..but here is the trick..use the ETF's instead to drop your cost to like zero!!!!
I work in healthcare and hospitals are already gearing up and starting to do Decontamination Drills with the ‘space suits' , decontam tent, water hoses (with some chemical), dedicated isolation rooms to house infected patients.
These drills are with city, state and local law enforcement / disaster preparedness officials.
Hopefully this goes away but if it drags on for a while it would definitely hurt the economy.
These drills are with city, state and local law enforcement / disaster preparedness officials.
Hopefully this goes away but if it drags on for a while it would definitely hurt the economy.
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