2021 Lexus ES300h FF Toyota oil for 10188 miles

I disagree with your assessment, but more so on technicalities.

UOAs are useful for many reasons. But the data which is gleaned from the UOA needs to be properly delineated in context.

FF UOAs generally are going to show large amounts of residual metals from machining fragments, etc. Also the silicone sealers present in most all new assemblies will show up as Si and be confounded with silica. These issues we all know. This isn't, however, as you call it, "bad data". Rather, it's data which has little use. If we wanted to know the marco analysis means and std devs for this engine series (which I don't know why we would), this data would be incredibly helpful as a contribution.

I am on board in that FF UOAs have little use; this is pretty much true.

I don't agree that this is "bad data". Bad data to those of us who do statistical analysis is data which is tainted by improper set-ups, errant processing, mistaken anomalies which result in skewed results, etc.

All these FF UOAs we see have minimal value. But they aren't "bad" UOAs; the data isn't flawed.
My initial UOA was similar to this.

What I learned was that my very thin, very high quality oil stays in grade, and that fuel dilution won't be a problem for me. My car is also a hybrid, with the proverbial frequent stop/starts.

These were my legitimate concerns, and they have been alleviated.

Thank you to the OP for this report. High Si on an early UOA is shown again to not be unusual.
 
I’ve seen from my own personal new vehicles that FF analysis isn’t a total waste. You can easily see if the oil is totally packed with break-in / manufacturing shavings or if you got lucky with an engine that was assembled mid week when nobody is hung over or overly excited for Friday to end.

Mine always showed single digit numbers that go even lower with the next few oil changes and remain like that. Perfectly good data to me. 🤷🏻‍♂️

As I stated earlier, the data in question is confounded by uncontrolled external variables (the manufacturing process)
 
If you'd like to delineate between my terminology of 'bad data' and your terminology of 'data of little use', especially in the context of a what-if scenario that you readily admit is implausible and/or unlikely, then go right ahead.

My focus here is on the quality of the data.


Typically a person seeks means and standard deviations of data sets that exhibit a normal distribution (unless you're using non-normal analysis techniques such as Box-Cox, Johnson transformation, Weibull, etc....) By definition, the data in question is skewed and can be considered a statistical flyer.
Statistical fliers are never deleted from the data set. They are identified as such and removed from the analysis. The problem though is that you don't know how much of the wear numbers are from true wear on the engine and how much is from the manufacturing process.

You have zero insight as to the quality of your data. So you're darned if you leave it in (and over report true wear) and you're darned if you take it out (and under report true wear).

Like I said earlier, the data is confounded by uncontrolled external variables. It is bad data.

Again, I think we're mainly on the same page, but I just disagree with some of your wording.

If we wanted to know how ALL factory-fill OCIs are doing in any engine series produced (this engine; a 3.5L EB, a 3.0L Camry, etc), then we could take a group of ALL FF known UOAs and they could give us a "normal" distribution because if we ONLY include FF loads, that data which you called skewed won't be seen as substantially different.

I get what you're saying and generally agree; the inference I take is that you are implying that the FF UOA data will be wildly different from UOA data two or three UOAs later. That is totally true and I agree with it.

But I disagree that the FF data is "bad" or useless. It just should not be included in data sets AFTER an engine has established it's wear pattern once "broken in". If we wanted to know what is normal during "break in", we'd want to use this data. But that's not really what we're after, so this data is pretty much ueseless to our quest for "normal" operational wear trends.

For example, if we wanted to know the mean and stdev values of the typical teenage male regarding height at age 16-19, it's perfectly OK to "exclude" data from when he was 6-12 years old. That younger age data is not "bad" data; it's data that does not fit the study parameters.

Again - this UOA isn't "bad" data; it's data that has no value to our desired goal. We don't exclude it because it's "bad" (erroneous or tainted), it just does not represent the protion of wear we want to understand. There is nothing wrong with purposely excluding data when you properly define the parameters of what you seek.

I am in agreement completely in that FF data is pretty much worthless. All it will do is confirm that break-in is occuring. It should NOT be included in "normal" data sets, because we know for a fact that it does not represent "normal" wear. It would be foolish to include it in a trend line. But that does not make it "bad" data; just useless for our tasks.

NOTE: it is true to say that FF UOAs can show things such as fuel dilution and other parameters not directly affected by the age of the engine. Vis, FP, etc can also be gleaned from any UOA. I generally don't give a hoot about these because they are inputs which may or may not reveal themselves in the results of wear.
 
Glad to hear your (short) thoughts on the new ES. This is a car that I've been watching closely, even though it is outside of my norm, and my budget. Enjoy the car, and please don't hesitate to share more details and experiences with it.
MacManus, I highly recommend this hybrid. All the other variants I don't recommend because there are a lot of complaints about the 8 speed transmission being very jerky on the ES 350 and the ES 250 AWD is just underpowered. I remember driving the last generation ES300h and there was absolutely no get up and go in it. When i drove this generation ES300h, I was pleasantly surprised at how well it accelerated. The eCVT is fantastic and I actually am loving that I don't feel the shift points. It honestly is the best Lexus I have owned out of the 4 that I have.
 
Lot of moly in that FF.
I had expected higher Fe and Al number with over 10K service.
What percent engine run time during that interval

Good showing.

Could RP or you explain an SAE 10 grade?, I am unaware of that grade, only 10W
 
Lot of moly in that FF.
I had expected higher Fe and Al number with over 10K service.
What percent engine run time during that interval

Good showing.

Could RP or you explain an SAE 10 grade?, I am unaware of that grade, only 10W
I would say 50-50% when it comes to engine run time.

0w10 is not an SAE recognized viscosity and the reason why they discontinued it.
 
Factory fill 0w16 Toyota oil ran from February to August for 10,188 miles. Oil was changed at the dealership since it was a free service and assuming the new oil is Toyota 0w16. 90% is city driving.

So far the car has been great. Been getting anywhere from 52-55mpg and this is the first year Toyota has used the lithium ion battery in the ES.

View attachment 77083
Thank you for posting and going the full factory interval. the value in this is the oil looks serviceable with buffer for the service and interval.
 
Second UOA. From August 2021 to September 2022. About 80% city driving. The oil is whatever bulk the dealership carries. New oil is Royal Purple XPR. 4qt 0w20 and 1qt 0w10 paired with Toyota 90915-YZZF2 oil filter.

Screenshot_20221006-113735.webp
 
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