2017 Housing Market & Inevitable Crash

[surfstar]

Originally Posted By: oilpsi2high

No, I didn't forget about inflation.


You're right, my mistake. The OP just stated same sale price. I should have said that many people forget to account for inflation.
I know when we were shopping, seeing the same sale prices makes you think we're in the same run up, but after taking inflation into account, you realize its not so bad (and dang! those prices were insane back then!!!).

 

[Subdued]

Originally Posted By: oilpsi2high

When these houses sell, that house is then going to be taxed at the sale price in terms of market value. Do people not know this? A house that has a $ 4,000 tax bill now will be $ 6,000 and beyond in the next year, and it can take 18+ months to complete an appeal.

Hope these people have some wiggle room in their budgets.

End rant.

Not true

I bought my house in 2012 for $150k

Tax assessed value was 60k, and is still 60k.

 

[alarmguy]

Its all just fake money, the whole economy is fake money, what people think they are worth is fake too.
The Federal debt is fake, the pension funds are fake, Wall Street is fake.
The only thing that is real is solid investments, like gold etc.

So, when will it crash? No one ever knows, it will crash, when there is a lack of faith, when there is a lack of faith in the financial markets, then everything will crash, simply because nothing real is holding it up.

Remember a country called Greece?
The people of Greece, lived it up, like we are but then it all came tumbling down, Greece will be in a state of nothing for a generation or two. Sooner or later, you need to pay things back.

How many people here have EVER looked at the NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK?? Its also in Times Square NY.
Why dont people try to save future generations from living in the streets and vote for people who will STOP borrowing money.

Wake yourselves up, HERE IS THE REAL USA DEBT CLOCK - CLICK

Its not just the government, just look at "We The People" .. all we do is BORROW from other people (banks) to buy toys we are too immature to save for. We enslave ourselves for a lifetime to corporations ... think about it, if we stopped borrowing money to buy toys that we are to immature to save for, the whole world would stop because there is nothing real but debt to pay back, so we now are BORROWING MONEY TO PAY THE DEBT WE ARE TO IMMATURE TO PAY BACK ON TOP OF ALL THE TOYS WE ARE BUYING AND TO IMMATURE TO SAVE FOR.

So to answer the question of when will things crash, they will crash once people realize there is nothing but debt and they own nothing but loans and their 401K plans are fake because they have NO MONEY in them, only fake assumptions of what the companies they are invested in are worth on a daily basis which could be nothing tomorrow if the investors think the companies are worthless..

 

[PR1955]

Gold as a solid investment ? When the "crash" comes, what is gold going to do for you ? It, along with other investments, will have no value. Will you sell it for worthless currency ? Can you eat it ? Can you heat your home with it ?
I am not debating that a "crash", or at least a major correction is eventually inevitable, I question the value of gold as being a more "solid investment" than anything else.

 

[Mr Nice]

alarmguy,

Our economy needs people and companies to borrow money and repay iwith interest.
Why are you so negative about the big picture ?

No fake money in my accounts, IRA, pensions, 401K, etc...

 

[surfstar]

alarmguy is quite alarming! Don't get your "news" from where you've been getting it, is all I'll say.

Gold won't help you eat, won't provide electricity, etc.

 

[Win]

Originally Posted By: alarmguy
Its all just fake money, the whole economy is fake money, what people think they are worth is fake too.
The Federal debt is fake, the pension funds are fake, Wall Street is fake.
The only thing that is real is solid investments, like gold etc. ....



I am unsophisticated, but I was more or less with you, until you got to gold.

That class of property called real property, is called that for a reason.

Everything else, including metals, isn't. Also for a reason.

 

[JTK]

Originally Posted By: Subdued
Originally Posted By: oilpsi2high

When these houses sell, that house is then going to be taxed at the sale price in terms of market value. Do people not know this? A house that has a $ 4,000 tax bill now will be $ 6,000 and beyond in the next year, and it can take 18+ months to complete an appeal.

Hope these people have some wiggle room in their budgets.

End rant.

Not true

I bought my house in 2012 for $150k

Tax assessed value was 60k, and is still 60k.


Same here. Bought my home in 2011 for $217K. According to my 2016 county and town tax paperwork, my "full market value" is $199K and my "assessed value" is $76K. Same for the past ~5yrs. Different topic, but my taxes total for county and town are ~$4700/yr.

 

[oilpsi2high]

That just means your town has a low level of assessment.

https://www.tax.ny.gov/pit/property/learn/howassess.htm

The principal remains the same. The spike in market values is going to result in increased taxes. Hope you're ready for your town/county's reassessment.

 

[Patman]

I'm scared our market is going to make a big downturn, because last year we bought a new house and it won't be finished for another year. In the meantime though, as it stands right now our current house is worth more than what we paid last year when we initially bought that new house, and our new house is 2800 square feet and detached with a double garage (we currently live in a 2000 sq ft townhouse with a single car garage) In 2011 when we got this townhouse it was $529,000. It's current value (based on identical townhouses on our street that recently sold) is more than double that, at $1.1 million. I'm hoping it will go up another $200,000 in the next year (which isn't out of the realm of possibility considering it went up in value by $400,000 since March 2016!) We have also been informed by our new home builder that when they release the next phase of homes, our home (that we paid $1,059,000 for) will have a starting price of $1.7 million! Holy cow, we haven't even moved in and have made over $600,000! So obviously I am very happy about this, as this is part of why we can retire early in 5 years (we will both be 52 then and will sell this house and downsize and move further from the city) I'm happy, but still scared at a possible massive correction, and scared about the future of our children, who will need to make 6 figures (and have a spouse making the same) in order to buy a detached home in the Toronto area.

 

[oilpsi2high]

Also, anyone telling you to buy gold is an idiot. Horrible investment. Always has been, and always will be.

 

[oilpsi2high]

Originally Posted By: Patman
I'm scared our market is going to make a big downturn, because last year we bought a new house and it won't be finished for another year. In the meantime though, as it stands right now our current house is worth more than what we paid last year when we initially bought that new house, and our new house is 2800 square feet and detached with a double garage (we currently live in a 2000 sq ft townhouse with a single car garage) In 2011 when we got this townhouse it was $529,000. It's current value (based on identical townhouses on our street that recently sold) is more than double that, at $1.1 million. I'm hoping it will go up another $200,000 in the next year (which isn't out of the realm of possibility considering it went up in value by $400,000 since March 2016!) We have also been informed by our new home builder that when they release the next phase of homes, our home (that we paid $1,059,000 for) will have a starting price of $1.7 million! Holy cow, we haven't even moved in and have made over $600,000! So obviously I am very happy about this, as this is part of why we can retire early in 5 years (we will both be 52 then and will sell this house and downsize and move further from the city) I'm happy, but still scared at a possible massive correction, and scared about the future of our children, who will need to make 6 figures (and have a spouse making the same) in order to buy a detached home in the Toronto area.


You haven't made a dime until you sell those properties and pay any applicable taxes and fees. Basing your retirement on housing equity is a recipe for disaster.

 

[Patman]

Our retirement is not based solely on real estate though, my wife is a teacher so she gets a very generous pension when she retires (she's taught at the same school board for 20 years so far, so she can retire early and get about 75% of her current salary which is almost 6 figures per year) Also, we don't have a big mortgage, so even if the market takes a downturn, we can still sell our new home and downsize and still have at least a million in profit to live on. So we'll still be ok even if the market goes down, but we'll be considerably more comfortable if it continues to rise or only goes down a small amount when it does correct. As mentioned, when we retire we're going to downsize and move out of the city, and even if the market goes down, the price on homes in that area will also go down accordingly.

 

[oilpsi2high]

OK, yeah you'll be fine. Your initial post made it sound like you were going to sell everything and retire on those funds, which would've been risky.

 

[Patman]

We also have mutual fund investments with a few different banks, but we're going to let those continue to grow until we're 65 as we won't need to draw from them just yet.

But I'm still hoping that if there is a correction, it won't happen until we've sold our current home. If we sell it for 1.3 million then we could put another $100,000 on the mortgage just to make it even easier on ourselves in the future. At 1.2 million I've budgeted to have a little bit leftover to trade my 2005 Corvette for a 2014 Corvette next spring, so that's another reason I don't want the housing market to correct within the next year.

 

[Jarlaxle]

Originally Posted By: Win
Originally Posted By: alarmguy
Its all just fake money, the whole economy is fake money, what people think they are worth is fake too.
The Federal debt is fake, the pension funds are fake, Wall Street is fake.
The only thing that is real is solid investments, like gold etc. ....



I am unsophisticated, but I was more or less with you, until you got to gold.

That class of property called real property, is called that for a reason.

Everything else, including metals, isn't. Also for a reason.


You own nothing. You are permitted to occupy it until someone decides they can put it to better use, and you get to pay through the nose for that privilege.

 

[Patman]

Originally Posted By: Jarlaxle



You own nothing. You are permitted to occupy it until someone decides they can put it to better use, and you get to pay through the nose for that privilege.


Even if you've got a mortgage on a home, you can't say you own nothing, because it is still building you equity. Let's just say you bought a $500,000 home and your mortgage is $400,000, as an extreme case. Let's fast forward 5 years and that house is now worth $700k, and during that time you've paid $50,000 off the mortgage. You started out with just $100,000 in equity but now have $350,000. Sounds pretty good to me, even if you don't technically own it free and clear.

When the real estate market is good, like it is now, it is an incredible way to make a ton of money extremely fast.

 

[Mr Nice]

Yeah, but ultimately some people have the money to buy a house, others don't.

The people that don't cry and complain about income inequality.

I don't complain cause I can't afford to live in Malibu, California.

 

[userfriendly]

What would happen if Canada, the USA, Australia, NZ and Western Europe stopped growing their populations with migrants and immigrants for 10 or 20 years?
Would the demand for housing fall along with prices, as eventually everyone here and there now would have a place to live along with a summer cottage?

 

[PimTac]

How are these "migrants and immigrants " able to afford housing without work or with low pay work? The answer is the govt which is handing out benefits. Many live several families to one house. In this case the govt is reducing supply thus indirectly spurring the price increases.