2017 Housing Market & Inevitable Crash

[oilpsi2high]

I cannot wrap my head around why people are paying these ridiculous prices in upstate NY for housing. When will it end? We're at 2007 levels right now in terms of sale prices.

NY uses market value when assessing property taxes. 95% of these houses selling for $ 250,000 and beyond have market values below $ 200,000 in NYS's tax system.

When these houses sell, that house is then going to be taxed at the sale price in terms of market value. Do people not know this? A house that has a $ 4,000 tax bill now will be $ 6,000 and beyond in the next year, and it can take 18+ months to complete an appeal.

Hope these people have some wiggle room in their budgets.

End rant.

 

[WiskyBadger]

I'm worried for the same reason around here. People are giving $10k-15k over asking prices. Not even the values, asking prices.

 

[oilpsi2high]

Originally Posted By: ChevyBadger
I'm worried for the same reason around here. People are giving $10k-15k over asking prices. Not even the values, asking prices.


My friend and his wife are having the same problem. On old, outdated houses that look great in the real estate pics (all hail HDR). But when you look at the things that cost money, these houses have roofs that need replacement in a few years, dug wells in rough shape, old drafty windows, things like that, and people are paying MORE than asking price! I have a few friends in real estate and they say they can't keep them on the market long enough.

I think the fed raising interest rates has scared people into buying. I say keep calm, ride out the storm, and buy when the market's down again. The marginal increase in interest won't mean much when you're spending $ 50,000 less on the same house.

 

[PimTac]

Home prices in the Seattle-Tacoma metro area have skyrocketed in recent months mainly because British Columbia placed a 15% tax on foreign buyers in their housing markets. Their reason was to slow down the price increases there. The real result has been Chinese buyers who shifted their sights a few hours south of Vancouver where they previously had been purchasing.

Increases on property taxes plus the sales tax here going over 10% recently have made this area unaffordable for first time buyers now. Many are driving 50-60 miles or more away just to find anything affordable. Stock of available homes is drying up as well.

 

[Wolf359]

Not really as crazy as the crash. Inventory is still pretty low. Great times for the seller, not so hot for the buyers. Buildings that used to have several units on the market just don't have as many sellers selling. Plus prices are approaching or going over the peak from the last crash, but there's also been inflation in the last 10 years. While incomes probably haven't gone up much, less inventory also translates to less buyers and some of them have gotten raises or are in good industries. Lots of foreign money from overseas that wasn't around as much last time. These things do go in cycles though so who knows, just how long can you wait for a bubble to pop and how much will it really come down is the question. Same thing also applies to the stock market. People were talking about a crash for years, but when it finally came, it never crashed down to the level when the talk started and went up for several years before it finally happened.

 

[69GTX]

Here in Southeast Connecticut the market never came close to recovering from the 2009-2011 crash. It's for sure a buyer's market. Still a lot of foreclosures hanging around. I've seen a number of homes in my area stay in foreclosure/empty for 2-3 years. The home next to me was foreclosed upon and sat vacant for nearly 3 years while it fell apart. My wife and I called it "squirrel manor" because some of the siding/roof edging had fallen off and the rodents were coming and going as they please. That one needed a new roof, a complete interior remodeling, and a total demo of the enclosed all summer porch. That home is finally "sale pending." I can think of half of dozen homes within 1/4 mile of me that went through a similar 1-3 yr process where they looked horrible until someone showed up to finally buy/remodel.

 

[SZR48207]

If there is a situation, Denver is going to get hit HARD.

 

[CKN]

There is a basic problem of supply and demand in a lot of areas. As long as there are more people than houses a crash won't happen ANYTIME SOON.


Those of you who think it will happen in the next five years in places like NY, Colorado, Utah and many others are kidding yourself.

 

[ls1mike]

Originally Posted By: PimTac
Home prices in the Seattle-Tacoma metro area have skyrocketed in recent months mainly because British Columbia placed a 15% tax on foreign buyers in their housing markets. Their reason was to slow down the price increases there. The real result has been Chinese buyers who shifted their sights a few hours south of Vancouver where they previously had been purchasing.

Increases on property taxes plus the sales tax here going over 10% recently have made this area unaffordable for first time buyers now. Many are driving 50-60 miles or more away just to find anything affordable. Stock of available homes is drying up as well.


Kitsap county is crazy. Average time on the market is 3 to 4 days. Guy I work with sold his house in 4 hours.
I paid 289,000 for my house in 2010. 2000 sq.ft., 1 and 1/4 acres, shop and three car garage. Right now I could get about 360,000 for it. House behind me a little smaller, needs updates same size property just sold for 352,000.
It is ridiculous.

 

[Wolf359]

Originally Posted By: ls1mike
Originally Posted By: PimTac
Home prices in the Seattle-Tacoma metro area have skyrocketed in recent months mainly because British Columbia placed a 15% tax on foreign buyers in their housing markets. Their reason was to slow down the price increases there. The real result has been Chinese buyers who shifted their sights a few hours south of Vancouver where they previously had been purchasing.

Increases on property taxes plus the sales tax here going over 10% recently have made this area unaffordable for first time buyers now. Many are driving 50-60 miles or more away just to find anything affordable. Stock of available homes is drying up as well.


Kitsap county is crazy. Average time on the market is 3 to 4 days. Guy I work with sold his house in 4 hours.
I paid 289,000 for my house in 2010. 2000 sq.ft., 1 and 1/4 acres, shop and three car garage. Right now I could get about 360,000 for it. House behind me a little smaller, needs updates same size property just sold for 352,000.
It is ridiculous.


We get multiple offers all the time. Most of the time, at least here, the first offer isn't the best offer so taking one in 4 hours isn't a good move. Lately with multiple offers, you end up doing another round of highest and best and you end up with another 5-10k or more. I had one buyer where I thought they were out of it because they had a lower bid, but once I asked for highest and best, they came up 50k and they ended up getting the place. You just never know in this market. I just did one where the guy offered over asking before the open house, then increased his offer afterwards when we didn't bite.

 

[Nick1994]

I was thinking of posting about this.

A house on my grandma's street is closing right now, asking price was $399,000. Absolutely ridiculous.

My next door neighbor sold his house last year, was asking $225k and it sold for $240k 3 days later. Stupidly high prices.

 

[KD0AXS]

We bought our house in 2012 for $160K. It was a HUD foreclosure and had been vacant for well over a year. In 2015 we took out a home equity loan to get some work done and it appraised at $280K. If we were to sell now, I'm sure we could get over $300K.

 

[Silk]

Originally Posted By: ChevyBadger
People are giving $10k-15k over asking prices. Not even the values, asking prices.


Houses in Auckland are being flipped in a week for $300,000 or more profit. Some places will be flipped 3 times in a couple of days. Housing in Auckland has gone out of control, and so that spreads to other parts of the country. They are always talking about it crashing, but the prices just keep rising. We know what the problem is, but we can't mention it...y'know...

 

[jimbrewer]

We have the highest unemployment in the country and a 15 year long drought in New Mexico, so things are flat to down.
Santa Fe is the exception, driven supposedly by the ability to do Airbnb rentals. I don't know about that.
Exceptional deals in Raton on the Colorado border and Socorro in the central part of the state.

 

[Sunnyinhollister]

Near where I work by the San Jose airport they want $1.8M for a patio home. Drive an hour away and you are still paying $600k for a patio home.

 

[Shannow]

Originally Posted By: Silk
Houses in Auckland are being flipped in a week for $300,000 or more profit. Some places will be flipped 3 times in a couple of days. Housing in Auckland has gone out of control, and so that spreads to other parts of the country. They are always talking about it crashing, but the prices just keep rising. We know what the problem is, but we can't mention it...y'know...


Yeah, same in Sydney...it's GOT to crash but keeps bubbling up. Reserve Bank isn't going to do their part to slow it.

It became unaffordable, so Govt started handing out money to first home owners to help for a deposit...so the prices automatically jumped by that amount. Now they are talking about letting people use their super (enforced savings for retirement) to do it...will do the same thing.

We are 120km west of Sydney, and the electric trains stop here...our market is utterly bonkers...we wouldn't mind upgrading, but the agents are only putting the for sale signs up with a sold sticker already on it...

 

[SonofJoe]

Ha! You guys are lucky. You should live where I live in the South of England. A few weeks ago a small terraced house around the corner came on the market. An old lady had lived there for decades and the place was in a shocking state of repair. Because it was considered 'cheap', it sold within the fortnight for £330,000 ($US 439,000)!

If you have a problem believing this, here's an advert for another house close by...

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-65970674.html

It's a old two bedroomed terraced house (it's the one with the blue front door, not the one next to it with the red door) and it's on the market for offers in excess of £475k ($US 617k). My guess is they will get what they want!

 

[Silk]

There is a hands off approach here, they don't want to upset their biggest supporters. It's all about the people with money making more money.

 

[xfactor9]

House prices go up then they go down. In other news, water is wet.

BTW this is an example of the frenzy in Silicon Valley-- Asking $3MM for a 2300 sq foot house; sale closed for $3.6MM 2 weeks later.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Altos/137-Sylvian-Way-94022/home/968527

 

[Silk]

Of course if you do it right it's all good. Most of our peers left the city in the '80's...we left twice. One of the last left a couple of months ago, sold his house and has well into 6 figures, moved down our way onto a few acres and a nice house.