Will the used car market cool off?

[sloinker]

I own several cars with no ecu
Runs fine

I venture a guess here but I think you would need to go back the the 1970's to get a vehicle without any form of ECU onboard.

 

[Dave Hess]

That's where I'm stuck. It is an inconvenience for us not to have the minivan. If I knew it would only be 4-6 months, I'd be fine. I don't want to go a full year without the van....

Keep it.

 

[Rmay635703]

I venture a guess here but I think you would need to go back the the 1970's to get a vehicle without any form of ECU onboard.

I can make any engine run stand alone and of coarse there are aftermarket solutions as well

 

[aquariuscsm]

I could never imagine sharing a car, or driving a car that doesn't belong to me. Keep your van.

 

[sloinker]

Rmay635703:

You da man! I suppose that any engine can be converted to a carburetor or mechanical fuel injection along with points style distributor/magneto.

 

[dareo]

Just my guess, 6-12 months and we will have plenty of new cars. When a new car sells a used car hits the market. Selling out now might be a good trade. If your willing to swing trade vehicles. I was.

 

[CKN]

I own several cars with no ecu
Runs fine

If you own anything with an OBD port in it it has a chip in it.

 

[zzyzzx]

A few of the automakers have said that this whole exercise has taught them that they do not need to stock as many vehicles at dealerships moving forward, and plan to reduce overall inventory levels even when things get back to normal. They plan to concentrate on their higher margin products and reduce trim lines all in an effort to increase per unit profit for both them and their dealers.

I suspect that the best deals going forward for a while, even after inventories get back to the "new normal" will be to do a factory order where you shop around. Of course this will also require you to buy new before you need it though.

 

[zzyzzx]

With my luck, my current car will blow up and force me to get another car before the bubble bursts.

Or repair your existing vehicle. Even having an engine or transmission replaced is going to be cheaper than paying the current additional markup on new cars.

 

[Deleted member 89374]

True. KBB trade-in value of my car is $3800 higher than what it was 6 months ago. Average rebates and discounts are down about $2K-$3K, so it is all a wash. It is more the idea that you are paying MSRP or close to it after being used to receiving rebates and discounts. At the end of the day, the numbers would work out virtually the same.

Welcome to the 21st-century version of inflation, revision 2021.

 

[ryster]

In your example yes. With a truck it's $12,000.00 to $15,000.00 more. I paid $43,000.00 for my 2018 Silverado LTZ. You can't even buy an LT for that right now........

There are a lot of regional variables in the pricing of trucks right now. There are plenty of 2018 Silverado LT 4x4 trucks available in certain regions of the country in the $38K-$41K retail range with clean Carfax reports and average mileage. Still crazy prices for a 3-4 year old truck.

If someone owns a truck and knows for certain they can get $12,000 to $15,000 more for it right now, they should immediately sell it. Especially if it is a 2nd vehicle or one that is not essential for them to have around.

 

[supton]

Anyone know when the used car market will cool off, calm down, return to prior covid/parts shortage?

My wife and I discussed selling her vehicle as we stand to walk with 7K in profit on something we bought used and owned for a year. While it will be an inconvenience, we will make it work until the market returns to per say "normal." At that point, we would purchase her something similar.

Thoughts?

I'm a little dubious of "return to normal". I'm not sure things returned to normal after the Great Recession--instead, prices remained a notch higher afterwards. Now we have had two notches to ratchet up prices, a momentary restriction in the build of new vehicles and then inflation on top of that. I think prices will come down but they will never be at 2019 pricing. But let's be real, 1990's pricing for used cars went out in... the '90s. Inflation has always existed to make it harder to compare prices.

With cars lasting longer (regardless of what we wring our hands over, average car age is creeping up) the used market is keeping more value. So I guess that counts as a third click in the ratchet.

Anyhow. I'm not sure that the new market will have sudden price increases--but I would expect ripple effects so next year's prices are likely to reflect rising prices in everything that goes into building one. If new car prices rise next year then that may be a fourth ratchet in used car prices, but I doubt it, too many people like buying new and won't buy otherwise.

 

[1978elcamino]

Yes, I paid 17,300 and was offered $24,585

I would roll that 7k into my kids college funds and my wife's IRA.

Thats amazing considering a dealer will make a profit reselling it to someone at an unreasonable price.

 

[Deleted member 89374]

Thats amazing considering a dealer will make a profit reselling it to someone at an unreasonable price.

Wow, is we're in a personal transportation bubble now? Wow!

It makes you wonder what the next bubble is going to be like... betting rooster fight?

 

[JeffKeryk]

I own several cars with no ecu
Runs fine

Electronic distributor or FI?

 

[BLND1]

Wow, is we're in a personal transportation bubble now? Wow!

It makes you wonder what the next bubble is going to be like... betting rooster fight?

Tulip Mania baby.

 

[Deleted member 89374]

Tulip Mania baby.

The housing market was one thing (I was renting back then), but personal transportation in the land of cars is insane. I don't know if anyone in the world trumps us when it comes to automobiles per capita.

 

[PandaBear]

I'm a little dubious of "return to normal". I'm not sure things returned to normal after the Great Recession--instead, prices remained a notch higher afterwards. Now we have had two notches to ratchet up prices, a momentary restriction in the build of new vehicles and then inflation on top of that. I think prices will come down but they will never be at 2019 pricing. But let's be real, 1990's pricing for used cars went out in... the '90s. Inflation has always existed to make it harder to compare prices.

With cars lasting longer (regardless of what we wring our hands over, average car age is creeping up) the used market is keeping more value. So I guess that counts as a third click in the ratchet.

Anyhow. I'm not sure that the new market will have sudden price increases--but I would expect ripple effects so next year's prices are likely to reflect rising prices in everything that goes into building one. If new car prices rise next year then that may be a fourth ratchet in used car prices, but I doubt it, too many people like buying new and won't buy otherwise.

If anything, I think the market will go "upscale" in the future instead of selling loss leaders like before. Basically, you have to buy the mid to top trims because they won't sell you the bottom trim for a good deal.

I suspect we will end up having 7-10 year loan as the common way of life with warranty extended to those length as a condition to the loan term. When there's money to be made they will do it of course, and you will eventually pay for it too. The side effect will be when the equation balance out, we will get rid of some really horrible designs that won't last 7-10 years (i.e. Jatco CVT, air cooled EV battery, etc).

 

[Deleted member 89374]

@PandaBear we're headed in the wrong direction with this, way past the halfway mark. Oh, boy...

 

[Markopolo]

Honestly, I think this is just the beginning...

When we were shopping for a 4runner I called every **** Toyota dealership in Minnesota AND Wisconsin, they all had ZERO new ones on the floor and all but 1 dealership was all pre-ordered up (ie, people slapping down 500$ and it's in their name) finally got a callback and went in yesterday and they had a used one (3 years old, 65K miles, sr5, wanted 43K for it) but, they had ONE preorder available (grey metallic TRD offroad, the one I had been wanting) for 42K, we put the 500$ down and it should be here in about a month.

Seriously, if it's anything like it is now, the car market is starting to turn into the housing market, where inflation makes property worth more than the $$$ you put down.