Why the big push to eliminate ICEs?

[simple_gifts]

1995: There is NO WAY power tools will ever become cordless and if they are, they will COST FAR MORE....
2010: There is NO WAY some guy with a weird name will ever be able to start up a battery car company....especially in California of all places...
2021: There is no way EV's will EVER be as cheap as an ICE car and the batteries WON'T LAST.....

You forgot the hybrids no one will buy and all their $9000 replacement batteries. (mine cost $1950 and the original lasted 17 years)

 

[Kiwi_ME]

Wait for all the fun pranks with guys pulling the plugs on co-workers.

The right way to install destination charging for example at a workplace is by installing EVSEs rather than generic power outlets. At 240VAC it could add about 50 miles per 10 amps over a work day, scale current as needed. The EVSE includes a GFI function and ideally a J1771 socket rather than a tethered cable so that the EV owner would BYO the cable, keeping costs down. And yes, the cable locks at both ends while charging and to the car afterwards. With commercial EVSEs charging needs an RFID tag to start and the same one to finish. This stuff was thought through over a decade ago.

 

[BituminousCoal]

Time of Use was mentioned.

TOU was implemented, including here in Ontario, to encourage load-shifting. If consumers could be incentivized to consume less during the day and more in the evening when surplus power was available this avoided:
- Spillage at hydro dams
- Turning down baseload plants
- Steaming-off at nuclear plants
- Increased peaking capacity required during the day

This was all well before the talk about EV's. The idea was that if you could manipulate the consumer side of the demand curve by using different price tiers that you'd avoid having to invest in more peaking capacity as well as save money by avoiding wasted generation potential.

People started doing their laundry in the evening, letting their house get hotter during the day (AC running less) or colder (furnace running less) when they weren't home. They'd let their dishes run at night. Some people would go as far as moving dinner to off-peak so they weren't running their oven when it was expensive.

Then, many things happened:
- Financial collapse, which resulted in a loss of industry and thus some of the baseload consumption
- "Green Energy" push/recovery, which incentivized private investment via feed-in tariffs and large renewable procurement contracts, which drove-up rates
- The installation of intermittent wind, which produces out of phase with demand
- The installation of intermittent solar, which depresses daytime peaking requirements, but creates sharp morning and evening curves, requiring fast-ramp gas capacity

This has complicated things.

While solar has a, generally, pretty predictable impact on the demand curve, at high penetration levels it starts biting into baseload, which runs contrary to the whole premise of what was trying to be achieved with TOU. Having to shutdown baseload generators during the day is just as problematic as shutting them down over night. This is why utilities are looking at, and in some instances, implementing, the ability to curtail solar (residential and commercial), because no other generator has the privilege of being able to dump power on the grid and have the rest of the grid contort around it.

Wind doesn't provide peaking capacity. It's the windiest when demand is only moderate so it is displacing, in the best-case scenario, fossil baseload like gas or coal. However, when you get a heat wave or cold snap, it tends to collapse, so you still need to have maximum peak capacity available and that capacity will command a higher price to make up for its displacement. This is why the average rate has gone up, even as wind procurement price has come down. Wind has very little capacity value, so in a market system, when it bids in at $0.00 to receive the maximum share and benefit from the required rate set by the bids from fuelled generators and that day's peak demand is say 15,000MW, with wind making up 1/3rd of that, the wind farm owners make a profit. When you get a heat wave and wind disappears, gas capacity steps-in. Since wind is unable to bid-in super cheap, because it isn't available, the market rate gets run up very high, driven by generators which are only used during these events and since more capacity is required in these scenarios, say it's a 25,000MW peak demand day, the overall impact on rates is an upward shift. No market participant is going to keep a generator in play that can't make money, so this is a bit of a naturally balancing situation. Where things get a bit muddy here is renewable procurement subsides and other financial transfers that happen outside the market system, but that's outside the scope of this critique.

In non-market systems or pseudo-markets like we have here in Ontario where generators are on fixed-rate contracts, wind contract holders are rewarded for "potential" kWh, that is, that even though their capacity can push the market price negative, they are rewarded full contract price for output that is accepted and output that is avoided. This of course drives up consumer rates to cover those contract costs.

This totally screws with the TOU concept because now you aren't dealing with an organic generation/demand profile that can be easily manipulated with structured rate shifting. As you increase wind capacity you end up with massive amounts of generation showing up at odd times. As this starts to eat into baseload, that capacity gets replaced by more flexible peakers that command a higher rate. This will likely get very exciting as we see wind penetration levels increase and baseload generators become uneconomic and retired. We saw bits of this during the Texas blackout, had the generator freeze not happened, more capacity would have been available, but the impact it had on market price was tremendous. Generators that could participate commanded obscene rates, which will become more commonplace as wind penetration increases and the generation side of the curve becomes more sporadic.

We've got two things going on here:
- A push to electrify everything, including transport with EV's, which will drive up demand, requiring more capacity and will stress resource availability
- A push to increase the penetration of wind and solar, which by definition, particularly with wind, increase the variability of the generation side of things, requiring more moving parts and changing the overall makeup of the grid, moving it away from reliable baseload generation sources and toward fast-ramp gas to be able to juggle that variability. Storage, in small amounts is being explored to try and help with FCAS (in most cases) with this, keeping frequency in check, but at a cost of course.

I"m fascinated to see how this plays out as governments push the utilities to install more VRE and retire traditional capacity. I expect we'll see a pull-back from the eagerness to install wind at some point once a tipping point is reached as well as some sort of settling on a limit for solar capacity for a given system.

What we've learned here in Ontario is a very expensive lesson what not to do.

I hope everyone reads your post. It would be nice if more people understood how renewables actually affect power supply. In many areas of the US the effect of wind particularly is bad as you mentioned; subsidized by the taxpayers and ratepayers during construction and subsidized by the ratepayers after. It's unpredictable and reduces the efficiency of baseload especially coal.

 

[Skippy722]

We don't have off peak rates. Instead, we have a 750kwh monthly cap. Exceed that an the KWH cost skyrockets.

We pay 12 cents per KWH, HOWEVER when connection fees, storm mitigation fees, utility fees, universal tax, utility tax, sales tax and more are added in, the first 750KWH ends up between 18 and 22 cents per. Over 750, the KWH cost increases to 22, and the taxes follow suit, but the fees do not.

EV's have similar per mile costs at those rates, when compared to a Honda Accord hybrid or Camry Hybrid. But are absolutely less expensive than more muscular, conventional cars.

How do you manage to use less than 750kWh?!

 

[ZeeOSix]

And the battery powered cars HAVE been seriously subsidized to the point of absurdity.

As time goes on, all the subsidies, low charging costs, and exemptions from paying road taxes will all disappear. EVs will become a big pocket of cash for the states to grab, just like they do for ICE vehicles.

 

[PandaBear]

How do you manage to use less than 750kWh?!

I uses about 300kwh a month for a family of 4, with an electric dryer that I uses about 4-5 times a week, I look at the smart meter plot and if I don't have the dryer my 300kwh would be about 200kwh instead.

During summer if we turn on AC all day every other day it would be about 400-450kwh.

We also work from home and school from home. I guess the question really is, how do you use 750kwh?

 

[Skippy722]

I uses about 300kwh a month for a family of 4, with an electric dryer that I uses about 4-5 times a week, I look at the smart meter plot and if I don't have the dryer my 300kwh would be about 200kwh instead.

During summer if we turn on AC all day every other day it would be about 400-450kwh.

We also work from home and school from home. I guess the question really is, how do you use 750kwh?

I am doing something horrifically wrong here, especially considering we have gas appliances and are also a family of 4… last month I used 643kWh, highest in the last 12 months was July 2020 with 1,209.

The tortoise does have a heat lamp that runs most of the days, my 55 gallon fish tank has a 300w heater, and my 3 gallon fish tank has a 5w heater… I guess those can eat up quite a bit of power.

 

[Snowflake White]

actually, cordless tools DO cost far more than a simple Skil corded drill from say, 1970. And they don't run for twenty-five years before getting scrapped.
And the battery powered cars HAVE been seriously subsidized to the point of absurdity.
And the battery tech allowing the non-fuel powered vehicles the range of gasoline/diesel/LPG are STILL NOT BEING BUILT.

The more things have changed, the more they stay the same.

Exactly!

A truly practical EV that can be purchased at a reasonable price isn't even on the horizon yet. Until battery technology makes
huge leaps in areas like fast charging times and range/capacity, these gimmicky items are for the wealthy.

 

[Snagglefoot]

No one really need to vacation far away so lets ban commercial, passenger aviation . That will eliminate pollution greatly as well as the spread of diseases.

I agree. Also the people complaining about the same issues probably have a bottle of French wine on the table, imported by air cargo.

 

[Cujet]

How do you manage to use less than 750kWh?!

I have a very efficient house in South Florida. White barrel tile roof, American Standard brand, dual compressor high SEER AC, Low-E glass windows, concrete block construction, and 2 solar attic fans. It's an extremely easy house to keep cool. My elec bills are very reasonable. I even put the air handler inside the house, as any leaks would leak cold air into the home and not the attic or garage.

Believe it or not, an 8000 BTU window AC unit will keep the house comfortable enough after a hurricane. I just close off the spare bedrooms and the home stays cool on generator power.

Adding an EV would put me in the higher cost bracket. As I drive A LOT. One month last year I did 12,000 miles, with many months near 10,000 miles and none under 4000. Reason: I was not able to use the airlines due to company requirements. We also had a lot of equipment to move around.

 

[SeaJay]

Just because new ICE cars may leave the market, doesn't mean all of the gasoline stations will instantly close. Drivers of "old fashioned" ICE cars will still be able to purchase fuel. It will take decades for all of the ICE cars to disappear, and in the meantime gas will still be sold (albeit pricing will probably rise.)

I recall driving a 1971 sedan in the latter part of the 1980's. It was manufactured to run on leaded gasoline which was being phased out, but had no difficulty finding leaded fuel at most gas stations.

 

[Cujet]

Exactly!

A truly practical EV that can be purchased at a reasonable price isn't even on the horizon yet. Until battery technology makes
huge leaps in areas like fast charging times and range/capacity, these gimmicky items are for the wealthy.

I understand your point and you are not wrong, but there are incentives available now. There are some EV's that are "street" priced well, the Chevy Bolt comes to mind, as does the Nissan Leaf. Street price on the Bolt is quite competitive with a $10,500 discount now, and there are some sub $200/mo, 10,000 mile lease deals. That lease is attractive enough that I may do it.

While neither will replace a gas car, they are good enough to be superb cars for many homeowners (not apartment dwellers) .

I drive a ton of interstate miles, mostly in one of my 3 F150's. However, I really hate pickup trucks and even after all this time, I hate parking them in NYC or other tight locations.

It would be a wonderful thing to have a small yet capable and fun car to drive around town. So, yeah, a bolt may be gimmicky, but not expensive.

 

[PandaBear]

Adding an EV would put me in the higher cost bracket.

That's my biggest concern in EV. Right now I have Tier rate (flat but gets expensive the more you use), and if I switch to EV charging my rate for the household use will go from 26c/kwh to about 56c/kwh, this end up being not cost effective even if I can charge EV at 12c/kwh at midnight. If I stay with the current rate and just charge EV without telling PG&E, it will end up costing about 29c/kwh if I charge less than 300kwh a month, that ends up being not that competitive vs $4/gal gas.

 

[PandaBear]

Exactly!

A truly practical EV that can be purchased at a reasonable price isn't even on the horizon yet. Until battery technology makes
huge leaps in areas like fast charging times and range/capacity, these gimmicky items are for the wealthy.

Practical: going from point A to point B with enough range is in almost all current new EV now. Most are in the 200 mile ranges plus new.
Reasonable price: if you want shorter range you can get a used EV very well priced as mentioned like Chevy Volt, Nissan Leaf
Fast charging is everywhere in high density area, you just have to pay by the hours or kwh.

I don't know what you are talking about in wealthy gimmicky items, most of the EV owners I know are solidly in the middle class commuters living about 1 hr away from work. They lease Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf, VW eGolf, Spark EV, etc. Then there are the people who loves cars and they buy Model 3 instead of a BMW or Audi, those wouldn't be buying a 15 year old beater pick up anyways, or if they buy pickup they are likely the urban cowboys who never tow anything with a full size (at least at my workplaces).

And now Ford is selling a pickup EV for $40k, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT AN EV PICKUP FOR 40K MAN.

I am not sure what you are expecting, but when many customers complaining and then end up just buying a fashion icon and toy for $50k, it is really not EV's fault, they already made up their minds and they just want fashions and toys.

 

[Kiwi_ME]

Cheap gas does sway the economics, if running costs are your main concern. Gas here is over $2 per liter and our 80% green electricity is about 22 cents off-peak for myself, so favorable economics is a certainty along with the much lower carbon emissions. I'll never recover the added (2x) purchase cost but it's my choice to accept that compromise.

But (ironically) the man benefit to owning an EV is to have the option to silently and effortlessly leave all other traffic in the dust whenever it pleases you.

 

[Vercingetorix]

Latest cost estimate for Fukushima is 200 billion dollars. 40 years for people to return.

 

[Job]

I use below 375 kWh per month or it gets very expensive. Usually way under, no a/c.

On people unplugging others cars, quite a few cars have internal locking. If its on level 2 the handle has a small hole in it. I used a luggage lock, because people have unplugged my car while it was charging, the Volt. I saw someone else using the lock so copied them. Not in my house I say, not today.

 

[Kiwi_ME]

Newer EVs have a switch setting to determine if the cable will be unlocked after charging or will wait until the doors are unlocked. Mine plug is a Type 2, so no lever.

 

[PandaBear]

Latest cost estimate for Fukushima is 200 billion dollars. 40 years for people to return.

Had TEPCO flooded the reactors early to avoid meltdown it would likely be only just the reactor cost (maybe $20B?) and the area will not be a fallout zone.

It is a management failure.

 

[UncleDave]

Had TEPCO flooded the reactors early to avoid meltdown it would likely be only just the reactor cost (maybe $20B?) and the area will not be a fallout zone.

It is a management failure.

Thats how I see it- if someone had stepped up and owned the consequence of flooding the reactors or immediately called the navy to bring in aux power somehow it could have been avoided.