Why I bought Rivian stock

I’m still amazed for the fraction of electric vehicles on the road at the number of lithium fires
This just took place at the Rivian factory, but I would highly suggest this had nothing to do with lithium batteries or else the fire would have lasted a lot longer, but then the articles referenced about the Amazon vans lithium fires

Over 50 trucks burn outside Rivian factory

Honestly, though this has nothing to do with the stock, it was just funny that I saw it under the financial news
 
alarmguy said:
I’m still amazed for the fraction of electric vehicles on the road at the number of lithium fires
This just took place at the Rivian factory, but I would highly suggest this had nothing to do with lithium batteries or else the fire would have lasted a lot longer, but then the articles referenced about the Amazon vans lithium fires

Over 50 trucks burn outside Rivian factory
Click to expand...
Typically though electric vehicles don't succumb to fire at a greater rate than their internal combustion counterparts..

Edit: added evidence, per request below:

https://www.kbb.com/car-news/report-evs-less-likely-to-catch-fire-than-gas-powered-cars/
 
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Method said:
Typically though electric vehicles don't succumb to fire at a greater rate than their internal combustion counterparts..
Click to expand...
I would need to see the documentation for that statement. I take no position on either side.
One thing that is documented is the massive amount of resources needed to put out lithium fires
 
alarmguy said:
I would need to see the documentation for that statement. I take no position on either side.
One thing that is documented is the massive amount of resources needed to put out lithium fires
Click to expand...
Good point. Where is your documentation that electric vehicles succumb to fire at higher rates than internal combustion vehicles?

I would need to see the documentation for your claim. (Anecdotal examples aren't evidence)
 
Method said:
https://www.motortrend.com/features/you-are-wrong-about-ev-fires/

https://www.topgear.com/car-news/my...s-are-electric-cars-susceptible-catching-fire
Click to expand...
This is incorrect reporting. The question here is new vehicle sales percentage of resulting fires.
It’s an answer that nobody seems to answer.
I want to know in 2023 what percentage of gasoline vehicles started on fire and what percentage of electric vehicles started on fire.
We already know the most fire, prone are hybrid

We also know the almost impossible task of putting out a lithium fire and a lithium fire taking place when the vehicle is not running, which almost never happens with a new gasoline vehicle

I take no position except want accurate complete data compared directly with USA same year vechicle comparisons

Even with the first link, the non-critically thinking reporter looking to grab headlines states there is a cop fire in the United States every five minutes. Well yeah duh, we’re a country full of gas cars from one year old to 30 years old.
This is why I want a year by year comparison and stop lumping in gasoline car fires with old cars when there’s no old EV compared to
 
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alarmguy said:
This is incorrect reporting. The question here is new vehicle sales percentage of resulting fires.
It’s an answer that nobody seems to answer.
I want to know in 2023 what percentage of gasoline vehicles started on fire and what percentage of electric vehicles started on fire.
We already know the most fire, prone are hybrid

We also know the almost impossible task of putting out a lithium fire and a lithium fire taking place when the vehicle is not running, which almost never happens with a new gasoline vehicle
Click to expand...
Except that it isn't an incorrect posting.

Are you now changing your argument to apply only to fires related to 'new vehicle sales'?

How hard it is to put out a lithium fire is irrelevant to my point, but if it is important to you, that's fine
 
Method said:
Except that it isn't an incorrect posting.

Are you now changing your argument to apply only to fires related to 'new vehicle sales'?

How hard it is to put out a lithium fire is irrelevant to my point, but if it is important to you, that's fine
Click to expand...
I’m not changing anything I want to know the percentage of new vehicles or vehicles per model year compared to electric vehicles car fire
I updated my post above you can’t logically think comparing 300 million gasoline cars of all different ages in the USA to one to three year old electric vehicle cars is fair, can you? I don’t know and you certainly won’t convince me of it so no point discussing it any further.
 
alarmguy said:
I’m not changing anything I want to know the percentage of new vehicles or vehicles per model year compared to electric vehicles car fire
I updated my post above you can’t logically think comparing 300 million gasoline cars of all different ages in the USA to one to three year old electric vehicle cars is fair, can you? I don’t know and you certainly won’t convince me of it so no point discussing it any further.
Click to expand...
Except I'm not talking about the sheer numbers of 300M gasoline cars...I'm talking about the RATE. The aggregate number of the cars is meaningless, only the rate matters, and all the articles quoted above include the rate. There is nothing to suggest that newer electric vehicles have higher 'fire rates' compared to older ones. No statistical data supports that argument.

But I can certainly understand why you don't wish to discuss it further.
 
Method said:
Except I'm not talking about the sheer numbers of 300M gasoline cars...I'm talking about the RATE. The aggregate number of the cars is meaningless, only the rate matters, and all the articles quoted above include the rate. There is nothing to suggest that newer electric vehicles have higher 'fire rates' compared to older ones. No statistical data supports that argument.

But I can certainly understand why you don't wish to discuss it further.
Click to expand...
Exactly correct you’re talking about the rate of fires among 300 million cars of all different ages and comparing it to the rate of fires in electric eagles that are just starting to hit the market and only make up less than 5% of the vehicles on the road

Call me crazy, but not very scientific
 
alarmguy said:
Exactly correct you’re talking about the rate of fires among 300 million cars of all different ages and comparing it to the rate of fires in electric eagles that are just starting to hit the market and only make up less than 5% of the vehicles on the road

Call me crazy, but not very scientific
Click to expand...
I won't call you crazy, but I'm with you on you not providing any credible scientific evidence.
 
So, back on topic......the stock is down 89 percent over the last five years and is now at 14 ish per the original post. It might indeed be a buy. Is anyone going to dive in?

It has dipped into the 8ish range before.....one could always put a standing buy order in around 8 or 10....
 
Method said:
So, back on topic......the stock is down 89 percent over the last five years and is now at 14 ish per the original post. It might indeed be a buy. Is anyone going to dive in?

It has dipped into the 8ish range before.....one could always put a standing buy order in around 8 or 10....
Click to expand...
I would need a discount from here. Company is not profitable. If they are projecting to be, likely that information has been discounted. I think right now risk in general Is skewed to the downside for all stocks. At least that's what they say options markets are showing.

"Rivian Stock Is Facing Resistance At Key Levels But Is It A Buy Or A Sell?"
 
Yeah, for the broad market at least , I'm not sure this is the best time to buy in. Average price to earnings ratio in the S&P 500 is approaching 30, which is too high for my taste. I prefer to buy in around the high teens or low twenties.
 
Method said:
Yeah, for the broad market at least , I'm not sure this is the best time to buy in. Average price to earnings ratio in the S&P 500 is approaching 30, which is too high for my taste. I prefer to buy in around the high teens or low twenties.
Click to expand...
If you want an idea of how the auto industry in general is going, check out Lucky Lopez on YT. Some great content there.

 
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I just know those really nice Rivian trucks depreciated to around $60k from $100k just 1-2 years ago new.

EVs are expensive new however used in a sweet spot.
 
Out of all the non Tesla EV companies in the US, Rivian has the best potential (more than Cruise). However we have a few problems as 1) BYD is flooding the world with affordable EV, and Tesla is a distant second after that. 2) It is very easy for Tesla to build a Rivian equivalent as long as Elon is not being stubborn on the CyberTruck shape and stainless steel body. 3) Interest rate is no longer near 0% and you can't just keep borrowing money to grow in the near future, unless soft landing fails and we have a recession, in which case Rivian has a bigger problem to worry about.

I wish them luck and wouldn't mind placing a small bet for fun, but I won't expect it to go to the moon.
 
andrew_j said:
I just know those really nice Rivian trucks depreciated to around $60k from $100k just 1-2 years ago new.

EVs are expensive new however used in a sweet spot.
Click to expand...

The dumpster fire that is the Fisker subreddit would have me thinking of what might be in store for Rivian.

The Volkswagon bailout seems maligned too since they are closing factories in the home country. Nothing like corporate leadership blowing money with moral hazard at the forefront.
 
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