Why I bought Rivian stock

[Torrid]

I really like Rivian. They're the right size if I wanted to get into a truck again, it's just more than I'd like to spend.

That R3X with it's 80's lifted hot hatch look makes my pants tight though. That may be in my price range. The concept is even in my favorite color.

 

[alarmguy]

Yikes!
Almost 10% drop in share price at 3pm Friday could be a time to buy or not if your a believer ( not for me (yet anyway) but know nothing about them)

 

[cptbarkey]

Yikes!
Almost 10% drop in share price at 3pm Friday could be a time to buy or not if your a believer ( not for me (yet anyway) but know nothing about them)

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I can smell the tires burning from here

 

[Snagglefoot]

Continued problems at Rivian, from the LA Times.

 

[ME_Andy]

It's been rough. We'll see if this parts shortage thing is actually a cover story for low demand. Good thing I only put a few thousand in.

Seriously though, who would pick a $100k Cybertruck over a $70k Rivian?

 

[alarmguy]

...

Seriously though, who would pick a $100k Cybertruck over a $70k Rivian?

Cant disagree with you on that. Im actually rooting for Rivian. I hope they make it someday into profitability. Everything I read is people love them and good reviews. Im not crazy about the front end but I can see it growing on me. I'll never have the problem of owning one though, out of my league. I also like the CEO and is demeanor. Not that means anything.

 

[ME_Andy]

24% pop yesterday. Nailed it. I'm out of the stock now, especially since I hear Rivian is getting involved with a union. That's the kiss of death IMO.

 

[John105]

I own it and don't even watch it. It's been my one loss over the last two decades. I don't trade. When Broadcom went up 24% in a day recently and 11% the next, I said that's nice. Let's see how it is in 2040 when I need the money.

Again, I sold amazon when I tripled my investment. In 2001. that wasn't exactly a genius move, it was a poor one. As far as nailing anything? I can't say I've ever done that, and that's just fine.

 

[Kira]

I hear Rivian is getting involved with a union. That's the kiss of death IMO.

Maybe not. From what I hear, the aging, well fed American workforce is flakey and inconsistent.
Maybe a retirement plan and health benefits can facilitate manufacture?

Any data on absenteeism or worker longevity + turnover? just askin'.

 

[97prizm]

I can expect a 200% salary raise next January based on my documented job performance relative to my peers, but that doesn’t mean I’ll ever get it.

Unfortunately Musk temporarily changed his name to Keikus maximus and apparently there is a bitcoin with this name. Its value went up 1200% for a while. Why markets still react to his antics blows my mind. I'd love a 200% raise.

 

[Pablo]

Unfortunately Musk temporarily changed his name to Keikus maximus and apparently there is a bitcoin with this name. Its value went up 1200% for a while. Why markets still react to his antics blows my mind. I'd love a 200% raise.

He changed his handle, not his real name.

 

[Torrid]

Maybe not. From what I hear, the aging, well fed American workforce is flakey and inconsistent.
Maybe a retirement plan and health benefits can facilitate manufacture?

Any data on absenteeism or worker longevity + turnover? just askin'.

Unions are really losing their teeth these days. Mine just laid down and gave up on any arbitration for work rules that result in penalties to the company. They’re going to argue pay for us and that’s it. To start unionizing now is just a lost cause at Rivian. Maybe it’ll get them a bit more pay while putting on a good show, but union teeth and claws are basically removed even with well established ones.

There’s no reason why a good retirement plan and health benefits shouldn’t be offered with any company though. Most have a decent one even without a union. We give up enough of our time working.

 

[Brons2]

I can expect a 200% salary raise next January based on my documented job performance relative to my peers, but that doesn’t mean I’ll ever get it.

Even if you have a written offer to leave and go somewhere else for more than double your pay (cough big tech) they won't match it, in my industry vertical.

 

[Brons2]

AI is firing programmers, you are heavily invested. I dont see how you do not already know that.

AI is making programmers more efficient, but it is years and years away from replacing development teams.

 

[Brons2]

its today.

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What percentage of kids at colleges across the country that aren't CS majors have even ever touched a Linux instance?

You have to be able to know enough to ask the right questions, to get the right code answers that are actually helpful. That requires a human, and a knowledgeable one at that. A random person who doesn't work in IT is not going to be able to figure this out. Everone tries to sell no-code/low-code solutions with the express purpose of downsizing IT and it never works. The business doesn't give it proper care and feeding and it ends up with an IT custodian. Seen it 500 times if I've seen it once. Chat-GPT/Copilot/etc is no different. It can help ease the workload of a skilled person. It isn't going to replace skilled people.

 

[cptbarkey]

What percentage of kids at colleges across the country that aren't CS majors have even ever touched a Linux instance?

You have to be able to know enough to ask the right questions, to get the right code answers that are actually helpful. That requires a human, and a knowledgeable one at that. A random person who doesn't work in IT is not going to be able to figure this out. Everone tries to sell no-code/low-code solutions with the express purpose of downsizing IT and it never works. The business doesn't give it proper care and feeding and it ends up with an IT custodian. Seen it 500 times if I've seen it once. Chat-GPT/Copilot/etc is no different. It can help ease the workload of a skilled person. It isn't going to replace skilled people.

I dont understand the odd wordy linux comment. My son at 14 has installed a few variations of Linux in the past few weeks.

You are giving management too much credit for what AI is and isnt today.

 

[Brons2]

I hope it continues to be honest. It’s still my preferred brand at this time. It’s been down awhile before it got here. So far it seems they’re making crossovers people like and catering to the enthusiast too. They lost the fight with overall corporate on the manual, but saved the GTI/R/GLI in the US. The Jetta GLI did save the manual because the car we get is a US only model. I’m seeing more new VWs day by day and that makes sense with these numbers

They haven’t done well with EVs so far. My dealer is sitting on a lot of them here. The new models seem to be slow to release too. Not as slow as the Cybertruck though.

Enthusiasts still paint VW as giving up on the core, but not supporting them will only make it worse. The GTI/R refresh is a step in the right direction even with the loss of the manual, but most complain louder. I still keep thinking of getting the new model in the next couple years. We should see it in 2025.

I've been getting pop-up ads that VW is leasing 2024 ID.4 Standards for as cheap as $149/mo with $999 down. They've really kind of dropped the ball on updating the ID.4. Their software features are not as good as competitive EV makes, and they've never really gotten their whole OTA update scheme going. They also don't have 1 pedal driving, which not everyone likes, but most competitive EVs have.

To contrast that, we've gotten a lot of useful software updates with our Mach-E, better charging calibration, better BlueCruise, improvements to the on-screen controls, even the back liftgate started working better after a particular software update.

Granted, the ID.4 is a pretty good car, but when buyers cross shop things that have features like FSD, SuperCruise and BlueCruise, it comes up short in comparison. Also they were a year behind or more getting Tesla Supercharger compatibility.

They cut production in Tennessee a while back on ID.4s, not sure if it has restarted or not. My local dealer is sitting on a lot of them as well.

 

[alarmguy]

I've been getting pop-up ads that VW is leasing 2024 ID.4 Standards for as cheap as $149/mo with $999 down. They've really kind of dropped the ball on updating the ID.4. Their software features are not as good as competitive EV makes, and they've never really gotten their whole OTA update scheme going. They also don't have 1 pedal driving, which not everyone likes, but most competitive EVs have.

To contrast that, we've gotten a lot of useful software updates with our Mach-E, better charging calibration, better BlueCruise, improvements to the on-screen controls, even the back liftgate started working better after a particular software update.

Granted, the ID.4 is a pretty good car, but when buyers cross shop things that have features like FSD, SuperCruise and BlueCruise, it comes up short in comparison. Also they were a year behind or more getting Tesla Supercharger compatibility.

They cut production in Tennessee a while back on ID.4s, not sure if it has restarted or not. My local dealer is sitting on a lot of them as well.

Yes! It's the real deal. My local dealer has them in stock not that I am wanting a lease but that $149 and $999 is correct.
24 months, 10k miles a year, 20 cents a mile over. $395 return fee. Not bad for someone who doesnt drive a lot.
Boy this EV thing has not panned out on a scale like everyone initially thought. But they all had to ramp up as fast as they can or risk being left behind. One thing for sure, they are here to stay.

 

[Brons2]

I dont understand the odd wordy linux comment. My son at 14 has installed a few variations of Linux in the past few weeks.

You are giving management too much credit for what AI is and isnt today.

You need to be able to understand loading features from a Linux repository to be able to implement the features in your first screenshot, for example, Google Translate libraries. The average rank and file business person has never touched Linux. The average line of business manager does not keep up with technology and wouldn't have a clue where to start. It is indeed not very difficult if you are technology minded, the syntax on the CLI is different as compared to Windows, but it's fairly standardized and not difficult to learn.

I never give managers too much credit. One thing I've realized as I've gotten older is that there are very few talented managers, directors and execs in this world. Additionally, the larger the organization gets, the less likely they are to have cross-divisional knowledge. The boomers in the C suite want AI, but they have no idea how to get there, at least in my experience.

Most software vendor sales organizations that call on me are using it more as a catch phrase to get management attention than an actual, implementable feature that produces tangible benefits.

So again, back to your original statements about AI replacing developers, I disagree. It may replace some developers, because it will make good developers more efficient at their jobs, you know that old mantra about "doing more with less", well AI may enable more work to be done with less developers. It's not ever going to completely replace developers during my career, to give that time line, in the next 10-12 years, because it's just wrong too often.

How often is your example of automating the translation of French to English going to be wrong? Google Translate is not perfect in conveying meaning. I don't think most people probably use it as much as I do, having a wife and in-laws that are native Portuguese speakers, to give one example. It's gotten better but it's not like having a person that is fluent in both languages.

And, like I said before, you need context in order to be able to ask the correct questions of AI. Not sure how you do that without having a human that understands the big picture.

 

[Torrid]

I've been getting pop-up ads that VW is leasing 2024 ID.4 Standards for as cheap as $149/mo with $999 down. They've really kind of dropped the ball on updating the ID.4. Their software features are not as good as competitive EV makes, and they've never really gotten their whole OTA update scheme going. They also don't have 1 pedal driving, which not everyone likes, but most competitive EVs have.

To contrast that, we've gotten a lot of useful software updates with our Mach-E, better charging calibration, better BlueCruise, improvements to the on-screen controls, even the back liftgate started working better after a particular software update.

Granted, the ID.4 is a pretty good car, but when buyers cross shop things that have features like FSD, SuperCruise and BlueCruise, it comes up short in comparison. Also they were a year behind or more getting Tesla Supercharger compatibility.

They cut production in Tennessee a while back on ID.4s, not sure if it has restarted or not. My local dealer is sitting on a lot of them as well.

I'm not one to lease, but if I can get one for $999 down and $149 a month that might by my oldest's first car. I was thinking of the Fiat 500e initially which I saw some lower rates on, but I think that's cheaper if that can actually be had on the ID.4. I had considered buying a used car for her, but at this point that's going to be cheaper for a lease term than buying an old car to keep for 3 years.