Why I bought Rivian stock

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Jun 10, 2017
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I'm no technical trader but it looks like the bottom is firmly in for RIVN, over nearly 2 years now. Add in these facts:

- They expect gross profit in Q4

- Production costs are coming down, everything is being simplified

- They're using LFP batteries

- Most (every?) other EV truck manufacturer is struggling

... and it looks like a buy to me.

bottom.webp
 
I bought AMD for $4.88 a pop and everyone made fun of me. Sat on it for 8 years before it decided to show some movement. It is, of course, a survivorship bias, but if you believe in it, go for it. I am also considering it, limit is set to $10.
 
I'm expecting the catalyst to be the gross profit announcement.
The price of any “expected" gross profits has ALREADY been factored into the price of the stock. What you need as a catalyst are gross profits that out perform the market expectation that is already factored into the price. There is no guarantee that actual profits will exceed expected profits sufficiently to increase price. Good luck!
 
I took about 30 seconds to look at RIVN. This is not an endorsement either way.

To me the technicals were inconclusive. The oscillators do say the stock is nearing an inflection - but the rest of the technical don't show up or down prevalence. However I am not a technician and even the experts look at a lot of signals in a lot of different ways.

They are sitting on a pile of cash, but there burning through it pretty quick. They may need more cash in a year or so if they don't right the ship.

So if they could start selling cars at a profit instead of a loss, that would certainly be bullish. But the EV market specifically and car market in general is trending lower priced not higher - so what will compel people to cough up even more money for a Rivian?

It is a speculative stock, so normal analysis often doesn't work. If some investor or another takes a big stake it could double overnight. I would have to think they are a take over target for someone.

Not my sort of game, but truly good luck to those that do.
 
Illinois can't keep on subsidizing them. Too many other failing Green Energy things going on. The Stellantis plant in Rockford is another one with issues. The Gotion (CCP) battery plant in Manteno is another.
 
It might be good for a Bitog pop. If you have money allocated for speculation stocks it could be worth a try. I'm not an EV fan so if I play them it's with Put Spreads after a nice run up. Tesla is a favorite for that.
 
Nice OP post and something to think about. I have always had fleeting thoughts about this company but never looked much further into it. The only thing that bothers me is if the OP was correct that most other EV truck makers are struggling, that is just because they are not as much in demand YET. Looking forward they maybe one day, but clearly (if correct) not yet. Though GM is only realising their trucks and SUVs last year and this year with scaled down plans due to lack of interest. Though their new SUV releases are doing well.

I just wish it was a few months back as the stock is up over 50% since May. Maybe because the VW news which means that is taken into an account already.
I always wondered if it would be in buyout territory from another automaker. I know NOTHING about the company and never looked further into it.
Seems like it would have been a nice fit for Tesla to buy out.

EDIT - I did not know about the joint venture with VW. Pretty strong statement if VW is willing to invest 5 billion.

I appreciate the OPs post. Might be time for a walk on the wild side. Not sure, we will see. When I believe in something I tend to go in big and this scares me *LOL*

"Rivian's Volkswagen Deal​

Meanwhile, Rivian also announced in June a joint venture with Volkswagen. The $5 billion plan involves the global auto giant investing in the EV startup in order to leverage some of its engineering and designs.

The partnership will focus on software along with electrical architecture design and development, according to Rivian executives. Currently, the joint venture does not include battery technology, propulsion platforms, high-voltage systems or autonomous driving.

However, German language-outlet Handelsblatt reported in July that Volkswagen and Rivian are apparently looking at expanding its partnership to include hardware and joint production. VW's U.S. electric brand "Scout" could also be included in the partnership with Rivian, according to the report.

The two companies expect the deal will total $5 billion. This includes an initial $1 billion investment by Volkswagen and then plans for another $4 billion.

Scaringe said in the Q2 earnings release that the integration with Volkswagen is "moving along very well" and that Rivian expects to close the joint venture in the fourth quarter.

"The output from our joint venture will see Rivian's technology in vehicles all around the world, helping to create more consumer choice and speed up the transition away from fossil fuels," Scaringe said."

Source=
https://www.investors.com/news/rivian-stock-a-buy-or-a-sell/?src=A00220

My concern is GM is their competition soon but other than that, wow, VW venture carries weight. Anyway, good post, something for me to watch.
 
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Yep, it might be another Tesla, a stock that is in the same place it was three years ago, with no dividend.
Well, honestly Tesla has to go up close to 100% in price to match its high from years ago.
Question is the VW deal going to pull Rivian out of the mud and finally start to see a profit? That VW deal is one heck of an endorsement. But what does it mean, I wish I knew
 
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