Where is the Electricity going to come to charge EVs ?

[JeffKeryk]

Until lithium batteries are replaced with something better such as solid state. I can see gasoline vehicles becoming a "status symbol"
You can drive wherever you want without a fear of recharging.
Im only half kidding about status symbol, every American family with a home will have at least one gas powered vehicle, if they dont that would lack some status not being able to take to the open road without the inconvenience of having to recharge a vehicle. Im only talking about the next 10 to 15 years or so ... again, solid state batteries that can be recharged in minutes will hold the key, lithium powered vehicle's will be obsolete.
For this reason I dont see our electric grid collapsing anytime soon but its going to need some MAJOR investment to get it up to par.

I mean, the electric car has been around 100 years, nothing much has changed.

Fear - it is not about fear; it is about different. You learn. I understand I live in a bubble for EVs and high tech in general, and I am the 1st to say EVs are not for everyone. But I also hear a lot of misconceptions. I suggest it is not what you think.

100 years - Only partly true. There were very few cars at all and no gas stations. Only the ultra rich had cars. Of course the Model T changed everything. And there certainly were no mass produced EVs.

 

[Dave Hess]

i didn’t read all the posts, just skimmed so I may have missed it.

How difficult it will be to source all the rare earth elements for high tech batteries and keep EV affordable compared to gas vehicles ?

 

[PimTac]

You have a myopic view of the big picture, focusing on a small part of the overall situation. Your thinking is in the past, your vision is rearward focused.

It seems many naysayers want everything now, and don't seem to acknowledge that this move to electric and alternative energy is an evolving process. Tomorrow will be better, and next week, better yet.

They scoffed at the Wright Brothers, and now we're headed to Mars and living in space; Edison tried to halt electricity's progress, but he was run over by the ideas and skill of Westinghouse; Nikola Tesla was considered by some to be a madman, now we're driving around in cars that carry his name.

That hasn’t happened yet. I know some old guy mentioned it but he says lots of things.

 

[PandaBear]

I see that many are excited about EVs, I can understand part of it but I myself stand by my thoughts that it will not be possible for EVs to come close to replacing gasoline vehicles for at least 20 years, more or less I can see EVs maybe getting to a saturation point of 20% of new vehicle sales, if that much, I think maybe closer to 10%. I think once people see the cost of charging them AND the fact that we do not have the power plants and infrastructure to carry the electricity to everyones home to charge the cars.
So where is the power going to come from to charge these cars? We barely have enough power in the USA to run our home air conditioners at any time of the day.
Until people wake up to the fact that we need nuclear plants, its just not going to happen.

View attachment 95148

Source = https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/04/map-of-nuclear-power-in-the-us-see-where-reactors-are-located.html

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1) We have enough power as a nation, just some local spots here and there will occasionally run out of transmission capacity or in the case of Texas, shut down because they are not designed for worst-case scenarios as it is cheaper not designing for it.

2) Assuming we have enough transmission capability, you can run your AC all the time if you are willing to pay for the spot price. 4c/kwh some hours but 60c/kwh some other hours? Sounds like it is just capitalism to me.

3) Assuming you have enough EV range, you do not need to charge it from 20%-80% every time you go to work and every time you come back from work. You can charge when it is cheap and the grid is in a "duck curve" for low cost, you can also charge when in the middle of the night nobody is doing anything.

4) If vehicles are designed with battery swap or extension, you can plug in a battery when it is cheap and set a "timer", charge it when you are also driving the car.

 

[alarmguy]

Fear - it is not about fear; it is about different. You learn. I understand I live in a bubble for EVs and high tech in general, and I am the 1st to say EVs are not for everyone. But I also hear a lot of misconceptions. I suggest it is not what you think.

100 years - Only partly true. There were very few cars at all and no gas stations. Only the ultra rich had cars. Of course the Model T changed everything. And there certainly were no mass produced EVs.

Well, some writers whom lived with or live with Tesla's did stories on the experience and say it is a fear of not being able to charge.
If you hear any misconception from me let me know what it is.

Your right, its not for everyone but I suspect EVs will be a "second" car in the household until a solution can be found for charging them up.
That only solution is going to come from a modern new concept in batteries if EVs are ever to go to the status of a primary vehicle.
Which brings up the next problem of generating and producing enough electric power to replace all the gasoline and gas stations in the country.
We got a long way to go.

My posts are not against EVs. I am just a realist, they will never have the status of a gasoline powered vehicle until the EV can be refueled like a gasoline vehicle. Its just weird reading stories and posts that the public seems to think electric vehicles are going to rule the road in the next 10 years.
Despite answering some posts along the way my only intention was to debate, once the EV is produced with a solid state battery and in 15 to 20 years down the road they start to become more of a primary vehicle we are going to need the electricity to fuel them up.

 

[PandaBear]

Only slightly off topic, but if I had 2 EV's (let's say Model 3 performance) that could directly DC charge from 15,000w worth of solar panels, I could switch between them every other day for local driving. Total cost: $150,000. Seems worthwhile, no?

From a more practical standpoint, EV's will become an ever increasing grid load over a period of time measured in decades. Plenty of time to upgrade power production if we plan properly.

Do you have to buy 2 crew cab pickups that can both tow a boat uphill? or do you buy a crew cab and a sedan in your family? What make sense for you if you are buying an EV is only buy it if you can charge at work.

Example from my workplace: first 2 hrs is 1.50/hr (or something like that), and after that the price goes up a lot (double?), that 2 hr at fast charging speed (not the damaging fast charging but the one that is still safe to the battery), cost round out to be about 8 miles / $1 according to my Model 3 coworker.

Or if you are in China, you can just buy a NIO without battery, lease the battery and let the charging station deal with the charging at cheap hours.

 

[UG_Passat]

You have a myopic view of the big picture, focusing on a small part of the overall situation. Your thinking is in the past, your vision is rearward focused.

It seems many naysayers want everything now, and don't seem to acknowledge that this move to electric and alternative energy is an evolving process. Tomorrow will be better, and next week, better yet.

They scoffed at the Wright Brothers, and now we're headed to Mars and living in space; Edison tried to halt electricity's progress, but he was run over by the ideas and skill of Westinghouse; Nikola Tesla was considered by some to be a madman, now we're driving around in cars that carry his name.

Rocket technology isn't there yet to get to Mars.

Edison had his own stake in the electricity progress, as he was the discoverer of DC current, and during the power wars, folklore said Edison claimed AC (by Tesla) was dangerous, to allegedly frying an elephant with AC power.

Now we're driving cars by a real madman, Elon Musk, that is also aiming for travel to Mars. Aeronautical experts scoffed at Musk's plan for a reuseable rocket, until after lots of learning lessons, showed the "experts" that it was possible to safely recover a booster, and now can be reused around 9 times before disposal.

Kitty hawk had more than just the Wright Brothers, there were many other people trying the same thing. We just recognize the Wright brothers because they were the first to get lucky enough to glide through the air.

 

[PandaBear]

Cali issues flex alerts when they know they are going to be close to the edge of available capacity, so they advise people to do more energy intensive things beforehand, to reduce load during that flex alert period (where they will actively cut loads if they have to). So, if it was the middle of the day with lots of solar and they have spare available capacity, but they see a shortfall coming at 6PM, they are advising people to do those things when solar capacity is available, rather than later when solar buggers off and they have to fire up the gas plants to keep the lights on.

I've been familiar with flex alert for at least 15 years now. The hours used to be from 11am-1pm then with solar it switched to 1pm-7pm and now 4pm-9pm.

What is really happening is the grid is limited, or some wildfire risk causing blackout to rural area powerline, not because we run out of generation in the nation (the line between Cal and the rest of the nation was full).

 

[PandaBear]

How is your bill only $9 a month? Even if you have a massive solar array and power wall I figured the connection fee to the grid would cost more? That's a great deal obviously, is this the case for many other people?

He paid ahead of time to install the solar and didn't factor in the depreciation and opportunity cost of the panel when he calculate the $9/month.

 

[PandaBear]

Phoenix is the sunniest city in the entire United States.

Not sure why everyone has to think in absolutes. No, solar isn't the solution for everything and obviously we can't run solely on it. But more people having solar will lighten the load on the power grid substantially for during the day. And what do we have for night time electricity production? Power plants. Just like we have today.

Roof top solar also shade the house and reduce the heat from the sun entering the living area.

 

[ripcord]

This is the point of the thread, no electric utility is ready for one to three electric vehicles for every American family.
We do not have the capacity and we do not have the infrastructure. All I was saying is I doubt very much market saturation will surpass 10% for electric vehicles in the next 10 years because of that and 20% maybe 15 to 20 years.

Except, the federal government will be ramping up the CAFE standards so quickly that it will force automakers to limit the number of ICE vehicles they sell.

 

[Wolf359]

Sorry I'm going by real world experience, not internetz. '95 Camaro z28 6 speed, '89-mid 2000's fullsize GM's with the 5.7. This is limited to my personal experiences, so surely I'm not the only person on the globe to have miraculously ended up with the only two lines of vehicles that could get close to 30. I just don't think of myself as a lucky person in that regard.

To your point not city driving and takes some light throttle, but 30 years ago? Even a 20 mpg fullsize V8 vehicle will make a logical person question why we haven't come further. Come on, we should be over that hump easy without all the trickery. Those that have had experience with the above era GM's in particular know today's mpg ratings don't make sense.

And there's a lot more plastic on vehicles now where metal was decades ago, and far more advanced tuning. I mean vehicles are now being mortgaged and in some aspects perform worse than they did.

Sorry you're inexperienced on both counts.

Sorry, I'm quoting the EPA and as we all know, you mileage may vary. Somehow everyone's butt dyno always seems to produce more power than the rated amount and everyone always claims they get better gas mileage than they actually do, I used to get 99 mpg on my car computer from the 80's when I was coasting down a hill. At least with the EPA numbers, they follow a specific procedure at standard temperatures so you can compare the number on one car to another.

Sorry you don't have actual data to back up your claims. As for your Camaro, you actually got 15/24 and an average of 18 overall. I'd hardly call that anywhere close to 30.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=11655

Also EPA changed their testing procedure for more real world numbers. You should also know that numbers have gotten worse because we have better 0-60 numbers and more weight. Shave the weight off and slower 0-60 numbers and you'll get better gas mileage numbers. But that doesn't sell in the marketplace. What you're lamenting doesn't existing. Engineering is all about trade offs. Of course if you don't know anything about it, it's easy to cry about how things are worse off today than yesterday.

 

[E365]

Except, the federal government will be ramping up the CAFE standards so quickly that it will force automakers to limit the number of ICE vehicles they sell.

Much more likely they’ll stop building ICE vehicles voluntarily because they’re simply too complicated, time consuming and expensive to design, engineer and manufacture.

Example:
A Tesla Model Y in the new Berlin plant takes 10 hours to manufacture.

An ICE powered VW Tiguan in Germany takes 18 hours to manufacture.

It’s the reason almost no manufacturer is fighting EV “mandates”. The industry knows building ICE vehicles is a financial loser in the long run.
https://www.reuters.com/business/au...-trinity-aims-catch-up-with-tesla-2022-03-31/

 

[PandaBear]

It’s the reason almost no manufacturer is fighting EV “mandates”. The industry knows building ICE vehicles is a financial loser in the long run.
https://www.reuters.com/business/au...-trinity-aims-catch-up-with-tesla-2022-03-31/

The cheap one in 3rd world is going to stay, with small engines and cheap to make.
The expensive one in 1st world will lose out. Who would buy a V12 that gets its butt kicked by an EV that only cost 1/2 as much?

The middle of the road ones, they have reached the limit of physics and other than going small engine with turbo direct injection and CVT there's not much you can do anymore. They are better off just abandoning future development in the mechanical department and focus on computer control, electrify all the parasitic loss (water pump, AC, alternator, power steering, lighting, braking, etc etc).

 

[JeffKeryk]

Well, some writers who lived with or live with Tesla's did stories on the experience say it is a fear of not being able to charge.
If you here misconception from me let me know what it is.

Your right, its not for everyone but I suspect EVs will be a "second" car in the household until a solution can be found for charging them up.
That only solution is going to come from a modern new concept in batteries if EVs are every to go to the status of a primary vehicle.
Which brings up the next problem of generating and producing enough electric power to replace all the gasoline and gas stations in the country.
We got a long way to go.

My posts are not against EVs. I am just a realist, they will never have the status of a gasoline powered vehicle until the EV can be refueled like a gasoline vehicle. It just weird reading stories and posts that the public seems to think electric vehicles are going to rule the road in the next 10 years.
Despite answering some posts along the way my only intention was to debate, once the EV is projected with a solid state battery and in 15 to 20 years down the road they start to become more of a primary vehicle to some we are going to need the electricity to fuel them up.

I guess what I am saying is, EV ownership, based on my experience and many others I know, is different than what non-owners "think".
I can understand that especially if you want an EV to fuel up like an ICE car. That's the rub; I don't.
Range anxiety is real, but you learn; it is not what you think. You do not fuel an EV like an ICE car. Let's look at comparable sedans...
How often do people drive over 200 miles in a day without stopping?
How many people fuel up at work for a subsidized rate or even free?
How many owners start every day with a full tank?

"they will never have the status of a gasoline powered vehicle until the EV can be refueled like a gasoline vehicle"
I cannot agree with this opinion. I don't want my Tesla to be like my GS350 F Sport.
I drove 10+ miles to Costco early today to gas up and buy a few things. I hate gas lines so I get there early.
I had about 3/4 tank... To my surprise, premium dropped like 30 cents to $5.49; I put in $29.68 for just over 5 gallons. Not good, but I love this car... But I have to drive 20 miles to get a decent gas price. I drive the Tesla into the garage to charge...
Had I not been using the Tesla that gas fillup could easily be $90. Ouch!
Currently Model 3 use gets me to solar project break even faster, after that it is pure saving.

Personally, I fly rather than drive any real distance. I could drive to San Diego but that takes time that I don't have.
I doubt I will ever buy another ICE vehicle except maybe an F-150, but not a sedan or SUV. They just don't make sense in my world. Too much hassle. Look at the maintenance requirements of my GS... And for fun, the Model 3 is pretty hard to beat. I wonder if an ICE will have the status of our Tesla?

This is all I am saying. My use case is a good fit, others have their individual use cases. Curious: How many Tesla owners have you spoken with that tell a different story? I would find that interesting.

I think you know Consumer Reports found Teslas have the highest customer satisfaction rating of any car, warts and all. There is a reason for it.

 

[PandaBear]

One of my friend, while still on the "free supercharging" plan, drove between San Jose to LA monthly just for fun. He has no problem supercharging his way down and back up, never an issue.

I'd be more worried if I'm driving a Nissan Leaf but Bolt / Volt / Prius Prime / Tesla should be no problem. Just make sure it is a competent EV with liquid cooled battery and support fast charging.

Why drive when you can fly? because of kids, flying medium distance is actually slower, and the luggage check-in and wait and the last mile rental car, etc. 1 super charging to LA is fine. Multi charge to Yellowstone is also fine, people I know did that trip before and the only problem was they have to plan on where to eat and where to break, instead of whenever the kids feel like.

 

[Spector]

Son in law works for TVA and manager for planning for future. He informs me that are not concerned about producing enough electricity, in fact stating they do not feel it will be a huge issue for them. Now, will the distributors be able to handle the load????

 

[Wrenchturner44]

Wow, healthy discussion....7 pages of posts in a few days! A lot of what has been discussed here is connected back to basic economics. When whatever technology becomes affordable or what is mandated to be accepted as mainstream, then volume adoption will then occur. This seems to be the same lesson that history and common sense has taught us with other technology transitions and adoptions over the years. The good news is, here in the USA we are motivated by economic improvement, acceptance and freedom. When the day comes that any two of these motivations disappear, we may be wishing to hark back to the times of yesteryear.

 

[Cujet]

Even if we used gasoline to produce the electricity we would probably need 70% less gas than currently even if electricity was produced at power plants using gasoline as the fuel source. Internal combustion engines are woefully inefficient, their thermal efficiency averages around 20% of fuel being turned into propulsion.

Nonsense and utterly incorrect. The stack of losses powering an EV are impressive indeed.

One need only look at using an efficient gasoline generator to charge an EV to see the reality of the situation. I'll save you the effort of searching. Using a Honda EU2000, a Tesla gets 15 miles range per gallon consumed in the generator. (1/3 less on the highway)

Using an Honda EU7000 results in 19 miles of range per gallon of gas consumed.

 

[brianl703]

Your right, its not for everyone but I suspect EVs will be a "second" car in the household until a solution can be found for charging them up.

I know people who have a small fuel efficient car they use for commuting to work, and a pickup or SUV they use for everything else.

In this scenario the EV replaces the small fuel efficient car.