One of the commenters asked me about the future values of non-Tesla EVs that are coming off lease, and what we should expect pricewise in the coming months.
I researched this exact question 10 years ago and published my findings. Today, the EV market has a much better base. I would even argue that in today's new car market, EV's have become mainstream.
But there will be a few small winners and a lot of big losers in the future.
The best way to look at this is to separate it into three distinct markets.
The first market are those vehicles that have an 'old school' range of under 200 miles. Most leases of the Nissan LEAF fit into this category as does the Fiat 500e.
Those with limited range will have the highest level of depreciation.
But they will also be the best values for those among us who are comfortable with their limited range. Most folks do nearly 95% of their driving locally. That has been a reality for over three decades now, and that's where the honey pot may be the sweetest.
I'm particularly interested in those two models since Nissan will likely be a bankruptcy candidate in 2026 and FIAT may become a defunct brand.
The second group are the overachievers. The Hyundai Ioniq EVs. The Chevy Bolt and Equinox, the Ford Mustang Mach-E. They have the potential to hold up their values far better than the other Tesla non-EVs because they offer better range and better reputations.
I would expect about a 20% to 30% level of depreciation. New car demand for non-Telsa EVs will be going south real fast. Higher new car prices for EVs will help these off-lease vehicles become more popular.
The final group are the question marks. The Nissan Ariya, the Toyota bZ4X, and Rivian's two models. These will have greater depreciation than the overachievers but are likely to remain available for another generation in our market.
The European branded vehicles are a lower question mark. They will have even worse depreciation if US tariffs remain in effect. Those models will fall nearly as much as the 'old school' cars.
I researched this exact question for Yahoo 10 years ago. This time? I would expect prices to fall between 20% to 45% a year from now for off-lease units compared to right now. It will be substantial, but not terrible because new car sales of non-Tesla EVs will have to rely almost exclusively on leases to remain competitive.
This time only the European brands and those EVs with under 200 miles of range will be in a free fall. Possibly the Nissan Ariya too if Nissan declares bankruptcy.
So you want something cheap in an EV? Figure out your real-world needs and go from there.
https://www.yahoo.com/autos/used-evs-hit-by-plunging-values-could-give-savvy-124255982617.html
I researched this exact question 10 years ago and published my findings. Today, the EV market has a much better base. I would even argue that in today's new car market, EV's have become mainstream.
But there will be a few small winners and a lot of big losers in the future.
The best way to look at this is to separate it into three distinct markets.
The first market are those vehicles that have an 'old school' range of under 200 miles. Most leases of the Nissan LEAF fit into this category as does the Fiat 500e.
Those with limited range will have the highest level of depreciation.
But they will also be the best values for those among us who are comfortable with their limited range. Most folks do nearly 95% of their driving locally. That has been a reality for over three decades now, and that's where the honey pot may be the sweetest.
I'm particularly interested in those two models since Nissan will likely be a bankruptcy candidate in 2026 and FIAT may become a defunct brand.
The second group are the overachievers. The Hyundai Ioniq EVs. The Chevy Bolt and Equinox, the Ford Mustang Mach-E. They have the potential to hold up their values far better than the other Tesla non-EVs because they offer better range and better reputations.
I would expect about a 20% to 30% level of depreciation. New car demand for non-Telsa EVs will be going south real fast. Higher new car prices for EVs will help these off-lease vehicles become more popular.
The final group are the question marks. The Nissan Ariya, the Toyota bZ4X, and Rivian's two models. These will have greater depreciation than the overachievers but are likely to remain available for another generation in our market.
The European branded vehicles are a lower question mark. They will have even worse depreciation if US tariffs remain in effect. Those models will fall nearly as much as the 'old school' cars.
I researched this exact question for Yahoo 10 years ago. This time? I would expect prices to fall between 20% to 45% a year from now for off-lease units compared to right now. It will be substantial, but not terrible because new car sales of non-Tesla EVs will have to rely almost exclusively on leases to remain competitive.
This time only the European brands and those EVs with under 200 miles of range will be in a free fall. Possibly the Nissan Ariya too if Nissan declares bankruptcy.
So you want something cheap in an EV? Figure out your real-world needs and go from there.
https://www.yahoo.com/autos/used-evs-hit-by-plunging-values-could-give-savvy-124255982617.html
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