My original premise is that you need to base viscosity recommendations on many of these changing parameters is still true. Oil is dynamic. It is not possible to make blanket statements.
Generally speaking, I look for viscosity stability rather than initial labelled viscosity grade. I prefer oil that does not thicken much on engine shut down. One of my greatest fears is damage from cavitation related to too much RPM for the viscosity during the early 20 or 30 minute start up period even here in Florida.
Do we have established, peer-reviewed literature results that show that oil cavitation is indeed an issue, particularly at relatively high ambient temperatures such as in florida?
Of course we have theories and analysis like this:
http://keilab.mech.okayama-u.ac.jp/research/cavitation/cavitatione.html
But in practice is it a condition that occurs at the Reynolds number occurring within the system?
Sure, we get people who claim speeds like 5500 RPM and above will show cavitation:
http://www.enginebuildermag.com/Article/59172/oil_pump_technology.aspx
But frankly, it is silly to run hard until the oil is up to temperature anyway, and given all the 200k+ honda engines which need to rev fast when cold to make power, even if we are trying to split hairs and optimize our lubrication, I wonder how much of an issue it is. There is a reason why we have EP and AW adds, and why we see a minima in wear on the Stribeck curve when we hit the point between mixed film and hydrodynamic lubrication. Cavitation may not necessarily be a continuous occurrence either, as the fluid velocity transitions into steady flow, any shear-induced thinning occurs, there is local heating, viscosity decreases, etc. I do not believe that this is an issue to anyone but the user of the most exotic or race-type engine, and even then it may not be a practical issue for all intents and purposes.
Now, I agree that oil is dynamic, especially over the OCI and conditions incurred. That's for sure. But IMO that has also been part of the consideration set in engineering and specifying a lubricant to do a job. One of the comments when people were transitioning from 5w-30 to 5w-20 oils was that the 30wt oils often sheared down into a heavy 20, so people HAVE been running lighter oils for a long time and not known it. The intent of that comment was to show that if the 5w-20 oils coming on market are shear-stable, then it is no different than what ran in most sumps for the last 1500+ miles anyway for years and years past.
UOA is no newfangled technique. Engine manufacturers and lubrication engineers know what an oil will look like after a relevant amount of shearing, heating, oxidation, etc. These are all knobs which can be turned (look at older versions of M1 0w-40 which competed shearing with oxidation to maintain a 40wt A3 oil) as part of the lube design. The engine builders know what they need to know - Viscosity, rotational speed and load. From Noria:

This stuff is easily calculated for designs and across the lifecycle of the engine and lubricant. There is sufficient variability in lube options that the "right one" can be specified or a specification can be written to make it work.
Example: is 10w-60 REALLY necessary for an M engine? Maybe really a 50wt is necessary, but given the characteristics of service interval and available lubricants, the 10w-60 was selected to provide the maximum "time at rated condition" (which is what engineering stuff is really about) to provide "design life at rated condition". That is the end game and goal. To do that, as cheaply as possible, with just enough overdesign to ensure optimal MTBF/MTBO and customer satisfaction without costing too much in NRE, parts, labor, etc.
So while I concur with your claim, I think that for the most part, statistically significant information has suitably indicated a non-issue using the specified lube for the specified interval in ones' engine. That doesnt mean to pack up shop and go home, but it does generally mean that using the recommendation is a fair approach that has been successful, and optimization, if any, is generally done more for sport/hobby than to see practical longevity improvements.