What do you think in the year 2030 onwards going to be like?

[john_pifer]

It'll never happen. Fossil fuels are here to stay forever.

I saw at least one “mad face” emoji reaction to your post.

Your comment is fact, not opinion.

”Fossil fuels” ARE here to stay, at least for the foreseeable future, especially with regard to aviation, as there is not another readily available fuel (short of building nuclear-powered aircraft, which was a plan that almost came to fruition in the late 50s & early 60s) that is suitably energy-dense to provide the power and range needed for our airplanes.

So, for those who are mad about fossil fuel, let’s hear your ideas?

 

[PimTac]

Toyota is building this as we speak.

 

[PandaBear]

ICE has another 50 - 100 years for the average consumer. A typical well built average car or truck will last 40 years and 300,000 miles with minimal maintenance if cared for. That's dollars per mile over the 4 decades of ownership, probably by multiple owners. Gas cars made this year will still be running if maintained in 2070...

I think the average consumer will reject EV technology for either costs or long-term reliability. Keep in mind, 99% of Americans cannot afford a Telsa. Probably 90% cannot afford a "new" car. MOST Americans are buying and probably driving used vehicles and the reason is that these are affordable in nearly every respect. I'd venture over 50% of American's are driving cars worth less than $5000. A big % live in apartments or condos without a way to really charge their cars overnight. How would all these people possibly get on board with a EV 5x what they can afford today, and without any real ability to actually charge it from their apartments?

I recently posted a Telsa that had 4 years, and 400,000 miles during which there was $30k in maintenance. That's pushing over $100,000 in costs in 400,000 miles or 4 years of heavy use. Not typical use, but the fact remains who can afford such a beast as a average driver? Sure, the 5% with tens of thousands of dollars of disposable income and a big house and garage want to feel good and shove this new tech upon the masses. The masses don't really want, need, nor can really afford it...

Sorry I stopped reading at 40 years and 300k miles average.

 

[K-Man]

At the risk of hijacking the thread:
2030 won't be much different. 2050 will be another story. The big changes will take place after 2030.

EVs are simply a short-lived transition to a future without private cars by 2050. The idea of banning private vehicles by 2050, old or new, fossil fueled or EV, is already being mentioned in whispers in Europe. The claim is that even EVs are too unfriendly to the environment to allow individuals to own and use cars. Besides, only the government and the authorities need cars, right? That statement sound familiar? Expect to hear it about vehicles too. It's coming.

The catalyst for the ban there, and eventually globally, will be grid collapse and a long blackout caused by plugging in large numbers of EVs. They'll say in the US, "We don't want the grid to crash like happened in Europe," so here it comes. The ban will be used to sweep up all private vehicles, including the remaining fossil fuel–powered cars. The elites, politicians, and urban planners have wanted everyone in mass transit anyway, and it's long been clear they want—not cleaned-up cars or EVs or self-driving cars—but no cars. Of course, the elites and billionaires who push this agenda will still have theirs...

 

[Wolf359]

At the risk of hijacking the thread:
2030 won't be much different. 2050 will be another story. The big changes will take place after 2030.

EVs are simply a short-lived transition to a future without private cars by 2050. The idea of banning private vehicles by 2050, old or new, fossil fueled or EV, is already being mentioned in whispers in Europe. The claim is that even EVs are too unfriendly to the environment to allow individuals to own and use cars. Besides, only the government and the authorities need cars, right? That statement sound familiar? Expect to hear it about vehicles too. It's coming.

The catalyst for the ban there, and eventually globally, will be grid collapse and a long blackout caused by plugging in large numbers of EVs. They'll say in the US, "We don't want the grid to crash like happened in Europe," so here it comes. The ban will be used to sweep up all private vehicles, including the remaining fossil fuel–powered cars. The elites, politicians, and urban planners have wanted everyone in mass transit anyway, and it's long been clear they want—not cleaned-up cars or EVs or self-driving cars—but no cars. Of course, the elites and billionaires who push this agenda will still have theirs...

You've been reading/watching too many dystopian novels/videos.

 

[PimTac]

You've been reading/watching too many dystopian novels/videos.

I don’t think he is too far off. Subscription services could be the standard. You order transportation via a smart device and it comes to you to take you wherever you want. Services will be provided via mobile vehicles as well. Food and sundry can be delivered by autonomous vehicles. There are tons of possibilities with this.

 

[Wolf359]

I don’t think he is too far off. Subscription services could be the standard. You order transportation via a smart device and it comes to you to take you wherever you want. Services will be provided via mobile vehicles as well. Food and sundry can be delivered by autonomous vehicles. There are tons of possibilities with this.

That theory is like the whole they're going to take our guns away fear. Don't see it happening. They've been trying for a while though. There's a certain freedom that comes from being able to instantly hop in your car and going wherever you like. You're only talking about 30 years, Remember how things were in 1991? Well a few things have changed, but it's been evolutionary, not revolutionary.

 

[Saabist]

I won't be making any changes by 2030, which is only 9 years away. Will likely still own and drive the same vehicles. If I'm still alive in 2050 I'll be so old that cars and driving will be the least of my concerns.

 

[Snowflake White]

Gradual creeping totalitarianism, feudalism, and balkanization due to too many different races, tribes, ethnicities, ect the US and other first world nations will be much like any other third world backwater by 2050. For example the Founding Fathers in the USA had a clear vision of what their newly created nation was to be. That vision is being destroyed.

The reason for this is pretty clear, flooding massive amounts of third world peoples into the country, which have no understanding of why the USA became a leading country, nor the inherited traits that put us on that path to greatness.

 

[10WSmuckers]

In 2030 and beyond I am still never going electric, or even hybrid. I am V8 only until the day I die. If governments were serious about rolling out electric vehicles they would have started building out a dedicated infrastructure in the 2000's as well as upgrading the current one we have. It's a cyclical problem, right? We don't have enough EVs yet so almost nobody wants to front the costs for better charging and coverage. But a large part of people who want to buy EVs won't do so because they can't really charge it anywhere. We'd have to put chargers on every street corner and that's not practical in some areas. Apartment complexes and street only parking add to this issue too.

Never go electric.

 

[PimTac]

That theory is like the whole they're going to take our guns away fear. Don't see it happening. They've been trying for a while though. There's a certain freedom that comes from being able to instantly hop in your car and going wherever you like. You're only talking about 30 years, Remember how things were in 1991? Well a few things have changed, but it's been evolutionary, not revolutionary.

Probably further down the road. That’s what I was getting at.

 

[vw7674]

can't wait for the 2030 GSXR-1000. It'll have electron-boost motors in the wheels. 0-60 in .77 seconds. If I can hang on. Which is probably a no.
guess I better start working out more....... & continue wrenching to keep up my grip strength.

 

[MrLemonade]

Sorry I stopped reading at 40 years and 300k miles average.

Take a look at the car classified sections. Quite common to find 40 year old cars and/or cars with 300k miles, or cars approaching that with that much life left in them. I currently own several that are roughly 1/2 way there or 3/4 the way to that point, with PLENTY of life left in them and will easily reach those metrics.

This might be threatening to someone cheering the death of the ICE for some fake euopia of EVs based entirely on intellectual dishonest, fraud, lies, and fingers-on-the-scale to hurt ICE and carry EVs across the finish line. But it's reality.

MOST Americans cannot nor will ever be able to afford an "real" car that is EV. They can afford a $500, 1991 gas car that still has some years left in it.

 

[MrLemonade]

I won't be making any changes by 2030, which is only 9 years away. Will likely still own and drive the same vehicles. If I'm still alive in 2050 I'll be so old that cars and driving will be the least of my concerns.

I also won't be owning an EV, certainly not as a primary, absent a major change in technology and cost benefit. Perhaps with a large enough tax credit I could see trying it. But then again, that's government tipping the scales to force adoption, much like cash for clunkers, or interest free loans to Elon Musk, and similar.

I have enough ICE to last me several decades longer, and will continue to accumulate ones I rescue in great condition for low prices.

 

[Burt]

Buying a car in 2028 because of phasing out plans in the future may not be a big thing if that phasing out includes a steadily skyrocketing increase in cost of hydrocarbon fuels because of imposed taxes, and a steadily decreasing availability of places to buy it because of increasing taxes causing a reduced profit margin. If government on several levels gets serious about eliminating gasoline and diesel powered vehicles, they can push those efforts in the form of taxes, fuel prices, fuel availability, parts surcharge, pollution production taxes, and probably a few other ways they can think up, besides just not allowing sales of future vehicles that use hydrocarbon fuels.

Uhmm... they haven’t raised the federal gas tax since 1993! Thirty years. It will be a regressive tax because poor people can’t afford new cars. So why would a politician support something that both sides oppose? Since when does declining demand result in skyrocketing prices? I don’t agree with you logic.

 

[PandaBear]

Take a look at the car classified sections. Quite common to find 40 year old cars and/or cars with 300k miles, or cars approaching that with that much life left in them. I currently own several that are roughly 1/2 way there or 3/4 the way to that point, with PLENTY of life left in them and will easily reach those metrics.

This might be threatening to someone cheering the death of the ICE for some fake euopia of EVs based entirely on intellectual dishonest, fraud, lies, and fingers-on-the-scale to hurt ICE and carry EVs across the finish line. But it's reality.

MOST Americans cannot nor will ever be able to afford an "real" car that is EV. They can afford a $500, 1991 gas car that still has some years left in it.

You obviously do not know how statistic and real life numbers are calculated.

Look at something like http://www.dashboard-light.com/ and see how many vehicles have problem when they trade in at what year and mileage. You will find out that by 20 years about 30% of them have engine or transmission problems or both. Don't tell me your 40 year old 300k miles car are typical. Maybe if everyone is driving Camry and Land Cruiser but based on sales number this is not.

The rest of the cars are identical between ICE and battery cars. The battery deteriorate predictably, ICE cars deteriorate and gradually die. 40 year old cars are outlier, 300k miles are outliers. Typically they are about 20 years and 200k miles if you find a Camry or Civic, something like that.

$500 gas car that still have years left? How many days missing work can you afford? How much is your labor trying to fix your own car? How often do you use your AAA towing benefits? Maybe if you are in Africa you can get free labor fixing everything and keep everything going but not in most population center in the US, labor rate is $110-200 per hour.

 

[Wolf359]

You obviously do not know how statistic and real life numbers are calculated.

Look at something like http://www.dashboard-light.com/ and see how many vehicles have problem when they trade in at what year and mileage. You will find out that by 20 years about 30% of them have engine or transmission problems or both. Don't tell me your 40 year old 300k miles car are typical. Maybe if everyone is driving Camry and Land Cruiser but based on sales number this is not.

The rest of the cars are identical between ICE and battery cars. The battery deteriorate predictably, ICE cars deteriorate and gradually die. 40 year old cars are outlier, 300k miles are outliers. Typically they are about 20 years and 200k miles if you find a Camry or Civic, something like that.

$500 gas car that still have years left? How many days missing work can you afford? How much is your labor trying to fix your own car? How often do you use your AAA towing benefits? Maybe if you are in Africa you can get free labor fixing everything and keep everything going but not in most population center in the US, labor rate is $110-200 per hour.

I think he has the problem of taking the exception for the norm. Yes there are 40 year old cars out there, but considering that the average age of the cars on the road is about 12 years and that only 25% of cars on the road are over 16 years, saying that 20-40 years is common isn't really backed up by any facts. Certain rust areas you won't really find many cars over 20 years old as they start rusting away after 10-15 years and many won't make it to 20.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/25p...t-least-sixteen-years-old----record-high.html

 

[Job]

2030 not a lot different. 2130 after the world wars are over and the population was largely exterminated from that and starvation, I don't think there will be any cars at all. Dark looking enough?

 

[dnewton3]

I'm locking this thread. The question asked, which perhaps begins as benign, leads inevitably to talk of politics, which is taboo. As evidenced by many replies.

You guys know better; don't make me get out the big stick of moderation and start whacking folks.