What do you think in the year 2030 onwards going to be like?

[Escape08]

I think it is far from over for ICE in the next 50 years or more. Considering we still have aircrafts (commercial jets, military jets), military tanks, watercraft vessels (commercial ships, battleships, boats, submarines) and such. Will the government going to impose to build them all into electric? I don't think so, maybe hydrogen fueled but not electric... I think it is a wrong decision for Jaguar to invest in EV, they should be better of with hydrogen fueled Jags.

 

[Snagglefoot]

2030. 2-1/2 election cycles. EV sales right now are about 1% in the USA as a whole. ( Don’t put the California blinders on). All the techies will get their EV, then EV sales growth will decelerate percentage wise. By 2030, I’d say 10% EV sales across the USA, maybe 25% in California. Explosive growth in China but only because they can charge the cars at night with coal fired power plants, exporting the pollution out of the cities.
After 2030 moderate EV sales but there will still be plenty of gas powered cars in 2050.

2050 is 30 years away. 1990 was 30 years ago. What were the stunning changes in those thirty years? Fuel injection, computer controlled engines, radial tires had already been invented. The transmissions have more gears, direct injection came along (good or bad), and they put video game screens in cars. Nothing really stunning. Now a flying car might be cool.

 

[Duffyjr]

"0W-8 is way too thick for that engine!"

There will many topics here about thick vs thin, "my car calls for 0w8 is ok if I use 0w16 instead"?

 

[PandaBear]

I can only guess:

1) 2 1/2 election cycle means lots of money to be sloshing around campaigning, so someone may revert the decision of EV only or create some loopholes for the manufacturers to get around (carbon footprint trading, buying up emission credits all over the world to trade for, crushing old cars to create "credit" of new cars to be sold, etc).

2) Hybrids, so EV is ok and the buyer can "unlock" the gasoline engine through 5G by paying a pollution tax afterward, or the annual "smog check" will determine how much time you use your gas engine vs charging and you have to pay extra for that (or get a discount if you charge vs pump).

3) You can buy an EV and if you need gas you go to a rental car company to quickly "check out" a gas car for long trip, and rental car are exempt, along with commercial duty vehicles, etc etc. Everyone can drive EV most of the time and rent a gas car as needed (but you have to pay for more during long weekends).

4) Some accounting loophole you can "trade" an old gas car for a new one, like a core charge for rebuild transmission, but if you are buying a "new" car without a "core" you will be only buying an EV or you have to buy an old gas car to crush so you have credit to buy a new gas car, or some nonsense like that.

5) Some Chinese EV battery standard came along and people will just swap battery in at gas station if they ran out of charge, like Blue Rhino propane tank, limit to maybe 50lb each. They will likely get something like 60 miles per tank and if they are desperate they will be swapping tank every 60 miles, and they will pay a service fee and the battery charge delta between checkin and checkout, and no more range anxiety. Maybe they can make it to shape like a spare gas can so people can mount them to the rear of an SUV and look cool.

6) Every car company will have a trunk mount gasoline charger generator you can snap on to the back of your car for a long road trip range extender. Unlikely to happen if 5) becomes a standard.

7) Nothing happens, you just pay a "toll" and keep driving the same car we are driving in 2021. The cost will be high though.

It is all funny math, but there'll be loopholes and people will likely end up buying EV because it is the cheaper choice.

 

[ZeeOSix]

It all sounds like a big royal pain. Maybe by 2050, half the population won't need to leave the brain container.

 

[BigJohn]

We are in the process of selling our house and the Home Inspector told me a couple of days ago that all single-family, new home builds are being required to have a 240V receptacle in the garage. EV infrastructure is being set up.

But hell.... California can't keep the electricity on during hot summer months as it is right now, wait until they are also charging 30 million electric cars every night. If they erected wind turbines on every hill in CA, it won't be enough. Guess, CA better swallow their environmental pride and begin building Nuclear Plants ASAP.

There will never be enough electricity to put 350 million Americans into EV's. On the other hand, it might make sense for all the major cities in the US to begin requiring EV's. Someone with a 10-20 mile commute in a city of a few million should probably be driving an EV.

 

[Snagglefoot]

If the EV penetration is as strong as some pundits say, the governments will quickly notice the reduction of tax revenue from gasoline and diesel. This will require a tax on EV use either on electricity or for registration. It will be up and running prior to 2030 I would think.

 

[PandaBear]

We are in the process of selling our house and the Home Inspector told me a couple of days ago that all single-family, new home builds are being required to have a 240V receptacle in the garage. EV infrastructure is being set up.

But hell.... California can't keep the electricity on during hot summer months as it is right now, wait until they are also charging 30 million electric cars every night. If they erected wind turbines on every hill in CA, it won't be enough. Guess, CA better swallow their environmental pride and begin building Nuclear Plants ASAP.

There will never be enough electricity to put 350 million Americans into EV's. On the other hand, it might make sense for all the major cities in the US to begin requiring EV's. Someone with a 10-20 mile commute in a city of a few million should probably be driving an EV.

I would love to have a few 240V receptacle in the garage to power other stuff (like mini split AC, laundry dryer, heat pump water heater, etc) and I don't own an EV. Electrician work to wire new 240V is just so expensive, mandating them for new home just make sense.

Today's problem in the grid is wild fire risk, even without EV it would be a problem, actually the problem is we do not wanting to pay for the rural grid maintenance (tree trimming) and PG&E cannot charge more for that. If the rural area is cheaper to go off grid solar it make sense to just do it like septic tank and water well instead of a big sewage line and public water into the wild.

The only way to put everyone into EV is to make battery cheap enough so you don't need to charge it every night, and charge it at night and office when it is off peak, plus we need battery swap (a small one that last you 50 miles or so for road trip) program like propane tank. If we are just leasing propane tank size battery for road trip we can buy a cheap car with no battery and then leasing battery and let it last only 5 years and keep swapping them out when they wear out, or just buy cheaper shorter range battery for a beater. It will probably take more than 2030 to reach that though.

 

[The Critic]

10 years from now? I foresee zero changes for the "average American."

 

[supton]

If the EV penetration is as strong as some pundits say, the governments will quickly notice the reduction of tax revenue from gasoline and diesel. This will require a tax on EV use either on electricity or for registration. It will be up and running prior to 2030 I would think.

Indeed. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I mean, if they really want everyone to convert... then don't change. Just eat the cost at the federal level. Leave electric costs where they are, and let EV drivers "fly under the radar". [Of course, tax rates on income would go up to cover that, no such thing as a free lunch.]

They could charge more per kWhr, but then how do you know what kWhr was going to home electric use versus the charger in the garage? IMO that really wouldn't work. Charging during registration may be a big fail: one upshot to a gas tax is that it's charged at point of use, you cannot rack up a tab like a credit card (and then fail to pay later 'cuz you don't got the money).

Takes money to pave roads and to keep them up in good shape, and the costs are split across various government levels. I suspect it'll be a mess, at least short term--oh who am I kidding, it's always a mess--and I wouldn't be surprised if one state does one thing and a neighboring state something else.

 

[Wolf359]

I think it is far from over for ICE in the next 50 years or more. Considering we still have aircrafts (commercial jets, military jets), military tanks, watercraft vessels (commercial ships, battleships, boats, submarines) and such. Will the government going to impose to build them all into electric? I don't think so, maybe hydrogen fueled but not electric... I think it is a wrong decision for Jaguar to invest in EV, they should be better of with hydrogen fueled Jags.

Battleships have been obsolete since Taranto in 1940 although they lingered around in the US til about 1992 when they were all decommissioned.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Who knows. Our infrastructure is aging; lots to do regardless.

 

[MrLemonade]

ICE will be around for a long time. EVs are hard to beat for day to day, around town stuff.
Range anxiety will continue to be allievated as batteries improve.

Don't worry BITOGers, you don't have to give up your Lambos and Ferraris quite yet.

What will change for the better is the data and data analysis.
Tesla will have hundreds of thousands of cars reporting real time GPS, accident and traffic data.
Over the air updates will make service repairs far cheaper and (of course) easier to get.
Traffic jams can be avoided; police and fire reponse can be optimized; you name it.

Tech is where the real change, the beneficial change, is.

At some point in my life, after endless lies by corporations and government, I stopped believing in these fairy tales. EVs are just another big con IMO. They are NOT more environmentally friendly, driverless cars are NOT safer and have already killed people, and when all the grids go down if you have an EV you're screwed.

 

[supton]

when all the grids go down if you have an EV you're screwed.

Yep, gas supply lines never have a problem.

 

[gregk24]

What will 2030 look like? On our current trajectory, not good!

 

[MrLemonade]

ICE has another 50 - 100 years for the average consumer. A typical well built average car or truck will last 40 years and 300,000 miles with minimal maintenance if cared for. That's dollars per mile over the 4 decades of ownership, probably by multiple owners. Gas cars made this year will still be running if maintained in 2070...

I think the average consumer will reject EV technology for either costs or long-term reliability. Keep in mind, 99% of Americans cannot afford a Telsa. Probably 90% cannot afford a "new" car. MOST Americans are buying and probably driving used vehicles and the reason is that these are affordable in nearly every respect. I'd venture over 50% of American's are driving cars worth less than $5000. A big % live in apartments or condos without a way to really charge their cars overnight. How would all these people possibly get on board with a EV 5x what they can afford today, and without any real ability to actually charge it from their apartments?

I recently posted a Telsa that had 4 years, and 400,000 miles during which there was $30k in maintenance. That's pushing over $100,000 in costs in 400,000 miles or 4 years of heavy use. Not typical use, but the fact remains who can afford such a beast as a average driver? Sure, the 5% with tens of thousands of dollars of disposable income and a big house and garage want to feel good and shove this new tech upon the masses. The masses don't really want, need, nor can really afford it...

 

[4WD]

Yep, gas supply lines never have a problem.

Bought my current house in 1996 … not a day without NG
Bought the house before in 1985 … not a day without NG

Power ? … many times … 3 lightning direct hits … thunder storms … hurricanes etc …
Have 5 gens and NG … 3 fuel types … all good …

Oh, we did not blackout in the recent freeze and have four direct gas heat sources if we did …
(they don’t need power)

We could easily look to other countries (not Canada or France) … to know what’s coming

 

[Wolf359]

I recently posted a Telsa that had 4 years, and 400,000 miles during which there was $30k in maintenance. That's pushing over $100,000 in costs in 400,000 miles or 4 years of heavy use. Not typical use, but the fact remains who can afford such a beast as a average driver? Sure, the 5% with tens of thousands of dollars of disposable income and a big house and garage want to feel good and shove this new tech upon the masses. The masses don't really want, need, nor can really afford it...

There you go again, taking the exception for the norm. On average, most Americans drive 14,300 miles a year, not 100k. I'm not surprised at any high maintenance costs once you go over 150-200k so that case doesn't really count. If you bought a CPO Mercedes, it has an unlimited miles warranty so you could do 400k in 4 years with 0 deductible, but that doesn't include wear and tear items like brakes so you'll still have some maintenance costs. CPO only covers you to 3 years max but if you buy the car with one year of factory warranty left, you combine that with the 3 years CPO to get 4 years. I also don't get your math, how do you go from 30k in 4 years to 100k in 4 years with the same mileage?

https://www.thezebra.com/resources/driving/average-miles-driven-per-year/

 

[supton]

Bought my current house in 1996 … not a day without NG
Bought the house before in 1985 … not a day without NG

Power ? … many times … 3 lightning direct hits … thunder storms … hurricanes etc …
Have 5 gens and NG … 3 fuel types … all good …

Oh, we did not blackout in the recent freeze and have four direct gas heat sources if we did …
(they don’t need power)

We could easily look to other countries (not Canada or France) … to know what’s coming

I suspect that you and I both missed out on the 70’s with their gas crunch. But right now there is an issue with a gasoline pipeline, and I recall something awry after Katrina.

My point was, all supply lines can be fragile.

 

[supton]

I recently posted a Telsa that had 4 years, and 400,000 miles during which there was $30k in maintenance. That's pushing over $100,000 in costs in 400,000 miles or 4 years of heavy use. Not typical use, but the fact remains who can afford such a beast as a average driver? Sure, the 5% with tens of thousands of dollars of disposable income and a big house and garage want to feel good and shove this new tech upon the masses. The masses don't really want, need, nor can really afford it...

By your own metric, 400k at 20-25mpg is some $50k in gasoline alone. Add in depreciation and I would bet that for the “average” driver their cost isn’t far from this $100k—unless if they are buying $1k hoopties and getting 50k out of a bare minimum investment, “most” are buying $5k and up vehicles and not getting 100k+ out of each one AND having to do some amount of repairs to them in the process.