What do you think in the year 2030 onwards going to be like?

Status
Not open for further replies.
In nine years I might have an electric vehicle;

1618709625542.png
 
Last edited:
ICE will be around for a long time. EVs are hard to beat for day to day, around town stuff.
Range anxiety will continue to be allievated as batteries improve.

Don't worry BITOGers, you don't have to give up your Lambos and Ferraris quite yet.

What will change for the better is the data and data analysis.
Tesla will have hundreds of thousands of cars reporting real time GPS, accident and traffic data.
Over the air updates will make service repairs far cheaper and (of course) easier to get.
Traffic jams can be avoided; police and fire reponse can be optimized; you name it.

Tech is where the real change, the beneficial change, is.
 
Most likely they will be replaced by then. Depends on one thing that we can’t mention here but if that person bans them then yep we will have electric cars and it would not surprise me if he did. You probably will have so long to get rid of your current vehicle or convert it over.
I can envision it by then, you walk into an AutoZone, O'Rielly or NAPA and they're all selling EV car parts & you ask "Where is your oil filter section?" And then the parts desk person replies, "Sir, what is an oil filter?"
 
Most likely they will be replaced by then. Depends on one thing that we can’t mention here but if that person bans them then yep we will have electric cars and it would not surprise me if he did. You probably will have so long to get rid of your current vehicle or convert it over.
Forcing change on people like you seem to be alluding to, tends not to go over real well in the US and would be nigh impossible unless you give people a replacement car; I see zero chance of that happening.

What's far more likely is that over time, economics will sway in EVs favor, through a combination of government policy and pure market factors. As ICE vehicles begin to cost more to own and operate than an EV, it will hasten the transition. Eventually there will be a point of no return, how long it takes to get there is anyone's guess. I say by 2035-2040ish we'll have mostly EVs on the roads, and by 2050 an ICE will be a niche market, for people who can afford to play.
 
Looking into the future, more than just 9 years, in the long run, I see the U.S. becoming more populated with people. I do not like that idea, but it very well may be that someday in the next couple of generations the U.S. becomes as densely populated as Japan, or India, on a population per land mass ratio. Regardless of the rate of population increase, if we are going to preserve wildlife, we will have to seriously reduce the amount of pollution each induvial generates in all the things they do, and ways they have impact on land, air, and water. To that regard, especially if the population continues to increase anywhere near the rates it has in the past, electric vehicles are one step among many other things that will have to be taken serious if we want to maintain wildlife and quality of life for people in our country.

It probably will take longer than 9 years from now, but some day autonomous vehicles will change things in many ways we can not now imagen. Much of that will be an improvement. One thing that will be welcome is that the change in numbers of vehicle deaths and inquiries will be reduced on a scale similar to the scale of the numbers of horse and buggies being reduced from 1860 to 1950. And motor vehicle deaths and injuries will become as common as seeing a horse and buggy is today, maybe even less common than that.

One big area in need of some kind of major improvement is the timely recognition of people with severe mental problems. If there problems can be recognized and treated before they do harm to themselves and or others, life will improve for many people.

There are other areas in serious need of improvement in order for maintaining or even improving quality of life for people, but on BITOG there are limits on what can be discussed without starting a ripple that a couple of pages of post later turns into a tsunami in a direction of topics best left not entered into.

The United States is anything but a land of United people. We have sooooo many people with soooooo many different opinions on sooooooo many different subjects and different ways of life that it looks like what will determine the final results on many topics regarding what will happen will be the limitations of what nature can put up with. Getting enough people to agree on subjects to make a difference before natural limitations cause an effect is becoming harder and harder to do in our land of freedoms of thoughts.

In the past the line that determined where one persons freedom ended was where they would endanger someone else. Now days, not so much.
 
Last edited:
Some states are jumping on the "ban all sales of gasoline powered vehicles by the 2030 to 2035 time frame" bandwagon. I can see the sales of gasoline poweted cars skyrocketing around 2028.

Also, many states are looking into new ways to suck more road use tax out of your wallet - like "pay per mile", and want to put a tracker on your car's OBD port. IMO, by 2030 it will be a hassle to own and drive.
 
Some states are jumping on the "ban all sales of gasoline powered vehicles by the 2030 to 2035 time frame" bandwagon. I can see the sales of gasoline poweted cars skyrocketing around 2028.

Also, many states are looking into new ways to suck more road use tax out of your wallet - like "pay per mile", and want to put a tracker on your car's OBD port. IMO, by 2030 it will be a hassle to own and drive.
Ban all by a certain date is not written in stone. There have been many times such lofty goals have been moved back. While it may happen at the current predicted date, right now it is more of a sign that someday it will happen, and not a definite that it will happen then.
 
I worked at an energy research company for a couple of years, and one of the people who worked there who had a degree in that field said that there is no shortage of energy, what there is a shortage of is cheap energy.

The cost of the source will definitely be a big determining factor. But cost has many levels.
 
Buying a car in 2028 because of phasing out plans in the future may not be a big thing if that phasing out includes a steadily skyrocketing increase in cost of hydrocarbon fuels because of imposed taxes, and a steadily decreasing availability of places to buy it because of increasing taxes causing a reduced profit margin. If government on several levels gets serious about eliminating gasoline and diesel powered vehicles, they can push those efforts in the form of taxes, fuel prices, fuel availability, parts surcharge, pollution production taxes, and probably a few other ways they can think up, besides just not allowing sales of future vehicles that use hydrocarbon fuels.
 
Ban all by a certain date is not written in stone. There have been many times such lofty goals have been moved back. While it may happen at the current predicted date, right now it is more of a sign that someday it will happen, and not a definite that it will happen then.
Of course, laws can be changed if it doesnt pan out as planned. WA just passed a bill to ban new gasoline car sales in 2030. Fun times ahead. :cautious:

https://electrek.co/2021/04/15/washington-state-bans-gas-cars-by-2030-the-earliest-in-the-us/
 
2030 we will still be transitioning. 2050, ICE will be museum pieces and scrapyard fodder. Count on it. For the diehard's, people still own horses, don't see many vacationing/commuting/moving their households with them.
 
I hope whomever is in power quits giving subsidies to electric vehicle companies, or gasoline. Especially Tesla. Mr. Musk and his Musketeers have taken in 500 Million in interest free loans plus more. Musk himself has said the "Full self driving " is years off yet way too many people have forked over 10K for it. Let's face it. The Bugatti Chiron is a current marvel, 16 cylinders, and 1500 hp, and passes current emissions standards. As an emissions Inspector in Colorado we regularly had 10-12 year-old vehicles that expelled. 002 ppm co2, nox. I don't want to be forced to own an electric vehicle.
 
Everything is on a cycle... we had a massive ramp up in vehicle size/horsepower, then emissions standards and higher gas prices absolutely neutered everything. I think we’re living through another “horsepower war” with stuff like the Hellcats, the GT500, and ZL1 among others. I believe in the coming years emissions/regulatory stuff will continue to push for smaller and smaller engines and/or super strict emissions standards that will again neuter everything. The catalytic converters on my truck are significantly smaller than the cats on the new body style for instance.
 
I think and feel it will rely heavily on just what sort of improvements may have to be in place before plug in pure EVs make it to the forefront.

I live in a very rural area. Nobody has a pure electric machine. I see hybrids, but they are all coaxial ICE-Electric. The closest EV rapid charge station I've ever seen was 107+ miles away @ an international Airport, only 3 bays.

The power grid is stressed as it is in summer heat when everyone runs residential AC. Brown outs and black outs are common. Nobody wants nuclear power in their back yard. Neighbors balk at others for windmills and solar farms.

As mentioned above, battery technologies simply aren't there (yet).

A pure plug-in EV is no solution here until attitudes and politics change.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom