Weather Forecasting - Do You Expect Accuracy
- Thread starter Warstud
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They can't predict the weather with any reliability here. The mountains,wind etc can blow storms in other directions.
They can usually get the temperature right though.
They can usually get the temperature right though.
I expect accuracy but sends like they only get the generics right. Such as it will be rainy, windy, snowy etc but when it comes to actual amounts it’s hit or miss. I’ve only gotten about 3 inches of snow where i am each snow storm and some called for 5-8in.
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They’ve had a really hard time predicting the rain/snow line and totals in my area of the state. This winter was pathetic and most of the snow was north and west of me and we got more rain or mix. Even though the weather man (or lady) said we’d have snow. Very frustrating when you love the snow and all you get is rain 
The next day...yes. The 10 day forecast...no.
Well, they didn't forecast the hurricane like gusts on Tuesday that toppled a bunch more trees...
But generally they do pretty well, but that's usually pretty easy around here.
But generally they do pretty well, but that's usually pretty easy around here.
We were supposed to get 10 - 15" of global warming last Friday - Saturday. Forecast stayed on that amount until Friday afternoon. We received 2" and it melted by Friday afternoon.
Such a big miss ..
Such a big miss ..
I still say... the only reason they call it "meteorology" is because "astrology" was taken.
No, I don't particularly trust any long term forecasts. Never stops me from reading the forecast, though. I think it was Twain who said, "Everyone complains about the weather--but no one ever does anything about it."
No, I don't particularly trust any long term forecasts. Never stops me from reading the forecast, though. I think it was Twain who said, "Everyone complains about the weather--but no one ever does anything about it."
Yea ....... I noticed there not all that accurate when it comes to precipitation . I'd like to know how they predict the amount of snow anywayThey’ve had a really hard time predicting the rain/snow line and totals in my area of the state. This winter was pathetic and most of the snow was north and west of me and we got more rain or mix. Even though the weather man (or lady) said we’d have snow. Very frustrating when you love the snow and all you get is rain
I used to but it seems like lately it’s basically a coin toss.
Old tech is sometimes better than new tech.
Use to live in Southern California-the storms would take all kind of turns at the last minute over the Pacific and end up in Oregon or Washington. The forecasting was not that accurate. I expect that has changed with installation of commercial radar. Here in the Salt Lake area the forecasting is extremely accurate-because once the storms are over neighboring states there usually isn't any last minute changes by the weather front.
Snow forecasting comes from a combination of expected liquid equivalent amounts of precipitation, temperatures in the atmospheric column and surface (snow ratios), water content in the column, and ice crystal growth potential within the cloud. There's a lot that goes into it.
The relatively warm water of the ocean plays havoc with the fragile rain/snow line in nor'easters with regards to how it keeps an airmass modified enough to favor rain over snow. And in the super populated east coastal areas, the difference of 50 miles can have major impacts. There's a lot of pressure to get that rain/snow line correct, and it's extremely hard to do.They’ve had a really hard time predicting the rain/snow line and totals in my area of the state. This winter was pathetic and most of the snow was north and west of me and we got more rain or mix. Even though the weather man (or lady) said we’d have snow. Very frustrating when you love the snow and all you get is rain
The specifics at 10 days can obviously be low confidence. However, forecast *trends* 10-14 days usually are pretty good and can at least give a window of insight into what might be coming from a longwave pattern sense.
The west coast is very challenging to forecast.
Forecast models that are referenced often need actual weather conditions...surface, upper air...in multiple parameters such as temp, pressure, moisture content etc...to "start" the equations of the forecast model in order to get output. Where do those observations come from over the vast Pacific Ocean? Satellite data certainly plays a big role, but it can't do it all, so the guidance has less initial condition data to rely on for the output of the forecast models. The eastern half of the country doesn't deal with that issue to the same extent because of the large array of data collection available upstream from those locations.
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More like the magic 8-ball...
As a retired Meteorologist...42 years... I think that weather forecasting has come a long way...but has a long way to go...IMO any forecast after about 7 days is not very good. I also see weather as being hyped up just like the rest of the media...It seems like every weather event is the worst ever and the end of the world is near...Also back then we had 2 weather models to use along with your gut feeling...Now you have at least 10 models to go with and it seems that the gut feeling of the forecaster is gone...Everything is based on the models...The problem is that you have so many to pick from...The newer doppler radar has been a huge improvement to forecasting severe weather.... You can look inside the storm and see wind movement...needed to forecast a tornado.....Again weather forecasting has come a long way but has a long way to go....I always loved a book by **** Goddard a loved weatherman from Cleveland Ohio...On the cover he is looking out the door in the winter at the snow and the tittle of the book was... Six inches of partly cloudy... 
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The GFS 10-16 day forecasts are good like you said for the longwave pattern prediction. I noticed that trend 18 years ago.
But as you obviously know it's the upper level features that can create low pressure storms and change the sensible weather greatly. Which is where those long range forecast models struggle a lot.
I do find that the GFS prediction of the NAO or PNA patterns are quite accurate to 7 days out. But from that point to 14 days out the forecast is low at 50 percent.
