Your deductions are more than reasonable, but.., there is much more, not all 0W30, 5W30 and 10W30 are created equal, you need to check the HTHS of each oil you are thinking of using and compare it to the one you are using; sound crazy but the viscosities you read in bottles are a range, between this viscosity and this higher viscosity we will call them 30 for example, so what happens is the W viscosity is related to the higher viscosity, on top of that depending on the base oil and the additive pack of the oil it might be stronger or flow more. I'll give you an example, german Castrol 0W30 is far thicker than Pennzoil Platinum 10W30 at most cold starts but the ultra coldest if even then, How come it is a 0W? well that is because the "30" is in the upper range and the "30" in the Pennzoil is in the lower range so the thickening curve for the Castrol is steeper in other words is thicker for most of its curve down to the very low temperature where it matches the Pennzoil and surpasses it but at extremely low temps. So starting wear will be higher with the Castrol than with the Pennzoil from the viscosity standpoint. I have read the whole university thing understood it agree in the science but the 2 times I tried it it didn't work for me. Now to give you my humble opinion on your question yes I'll switch to a 10W30 provided that it HTHS and viscosities are higher than the 5W30 you are comparing it to. The reason as you stated the temperature is not that low to begin with so we don't need that extra cold protection but we can use the lower shearing of the oil to protect the engine when it is hotter than areas that are colder generally.