Walmart Oil Aisle Today

[Indydriver]

If you have Menards in your area, take a look at their oil section. Heavy in Valvoline but eligible for their frequent 11% off. I buy HM full syn there for my 2007 Tahoe with a 5.3 and 175,000 miles. To the OP….this engine was always spec’d for 5W-30 so use it without a thought.

 

[Hermann]

I agree. I doubt we will get back to $22 5qt Mobil-1 jugs at Walmart ever or $19 a gallon 5W40. Unlike the price of egg's that in my area went from $2.48 to $22 during Covid-19 and are now down again but not bellow $5 I doubt we will see that same level of drop. I hope I am wrong but if bread and circus is acceptable most people will just eat the price increase on motor oil like they have traditionaly done with fuel prices and car prices.

What goes up, must come down. Sometimes harder than it goes up. Remember for a short time the oil companies paid people to buy their oil.

 

[Buick8]

It's been like this for over 100 years so your validation is irrelevant. These small spikes we see are very short lived and nothing to panic over.

We had this same panic in 2008 when the barrel of oil hit almost $150.00. Today it's about half that and yet the fear mongering still exists.

And don’t forget we’re still paying with increasingly inflated (i.e. lower value) dollars as well.

 

[oil pan 4]

I've got 1 jug of VRP probably use that in the next 2 or 3 months.
Next oil change after that will be another 3 to 4 months after that.
I think I can save up $5 to $10 more over the next 6 months for the now more expensive VRP or PUP.
Or save about $10 and buy a jug of Supertech next time I see it and just change it sooner.

Well PUP and PP is no longer GTL.
Sad noises. Won't be buying those until they are GTL.

 

[oil pan 4]

What goes up, must come down. Sometimes harder than it goes up. Remember for a short time the oil companies paid people to buy their oil.

Yes it looks like the middle east makes 20% of the world's base oils. So when it opens back up prices are likely to go back down.
Very noisy, often wrong never in doubt people will claim otherwise, but these people seem to have already forgotten about what happened between 2020 and now so I would worry too much about what they say.

 

[TwoC400s]

Yes it looks like the middle east makes 20% of the world's base oils. So when it opens back up prices are likely to go back down.
Very noisy, often wrong never in doubt people will claim otherwise, but these people seem to have already forgotten about what happened between 2020 and now so I would worry too much about what they say.

Like several here, I too think prices should (eventually) come back down. It's the timing that's probably the true mystery. Even if hostilities ended this very second, the lag to get the Pearl facility back to 100% of it's previous production (plus the lag of getting shipping through the straight renormalized) might be considerable.

The future of US domestic GP III (and GP III+) is still out in the offing a considerable way. Pascagoula should start shipping Nexbase before the end of this year but I don't think the output will be enough to satisfy (domestic) demand, much less global. The rest of the US GP III production looks like 2028-29 production start (if everything goes perfectly).

Cerilon (GTL) doesn't look like it will even start construction until 2028...

So will there be a huge glut? maybe? But I wouldn't bet on it happening this decade.

 

[oil pan 4]

Like several here, I too think prices should (eventually) come back down. It's the timing that's probably the true mystery. Even if hostilities ended this very second, the lag to get the Pearl facility back to 100% of it's previous production (plus the lag of getting shipping through the straight renormalized) might be considerable.

The future of US domestic GP III (and GP III+) is still out in the offing a considerable way. Pascagoula should start shipping Nexbase before the end of this year but I don't think the output will be enough to satisfy (domestic) demand, much less global. The rest of the US GP III production looks like 2028-29 production start (if everything goes perfectly).

Cerilon (GTL) doesn't look like it will even start construction until 2028...

So will there be a huge glut? maybe? But I wouldn't bet on it happening this decade.

I think pearl was one of the ones hit in a drone attack so won't be back immediately upon peace breaking out in the Persian Gulf.

 

[fdcg27]

Yes it looks like the middle east makes 20% of the world's base oils. So when it opens back up prices are likely to go back down.
Very noisy, often wrong never in doubt people will claim otherwise, but these people seem to have already forgotten about what happened between 2020 and now so I would worry too much about what they say.

I think you're right in that we've seen this time and again with all sorts of commodities.
Just look at fuel prices in nominal dollars from the summer of 2008 through today.
Look at the price of eggs from peak shortage to now, or the ever popular toilet paper shortage of some years back.
Some peaks as well as some dramatic troughs in every commodity.
I agree with you that the price of motor oil will eventually decline to around what we were paying six moths ago.
The economics behind this are simple but inexorable.