I don't disagree completely, but AI isn't going to fall apart. Chat GPT might.
There already trying AI models to search for plagiarism in college professors publication - in light of the recent Harvard scandal. They also think it might be able to decipher dead languages of lost people in archeology that we can't today - and learn there story. While neither of these will change the average persons life, there interesting starts.
If your current job revolves around downloading a file from a server, manipulating it in some way, and loading it back to the server - odds are good your going to need a new job. Insurance, law, banking - likely at risk.
Flip side - if you do almost anything with your hands - not going to happen. They did a study to see what kind of robot would be needed to clean a hotel room - I think i Japan. Even if the hotel room was very sparse and standardized, its all but impossible. The motion to make a bed vs clean the mirror are just too far apart.
I'd say that Microsoft is the most powerful tech company at the moment. They're building new data centers in places like Cheyenne, WY, to deploy AI. Microsoft has a lot of AI technology, and they learned a lot from OpenAI. In fact, this might be yet another case of Embrace-Extend-Extinguish for them. So I think you're right, OpenAI and Chat GPT will go the way of the Dodo sooner rather than later.
Now, the real problem with AI, and where many are confusing, all the while social media and YouTube is not doing these folks any favors, is that artificial intelligence is not smart or sentient intelligence. AI has very little, if anything, in common with the human brain. It's major constraint is scalability. The more parameters a model has, the worse it scales, so it needs more computing power. However, computing power is not infinite. For example, Midjourney is using Stable Diffusion to generate some very impressive images. The cost is immense as they use primarily GPUs to accomplish this. At this time, data center GPU computational power is very expensive. Midjourney has several trained models that they use to generate images, and their solution to the computational wall they ran into is to effectively design their own processors that have these models embedded into silicon. I can't even fathom the transistor count that it would take to accomplish this, neverminded the complexity.
Even with all of these advancements, the limitation for AI is that while it can be used to sift through complex data, statistical models, mass surveillance, it can't handle some of the simplest problems. I think that comes down to the fact that it's not possible to imitate a bio-chemical computer, the human brain, using silicon chips and software. I think that AI will be stuck in its current form for a long time.
As for eliminating blue collar jobs: absolutely, the low-level blue collar jobs will be eliminated by AI. However, those that require human interaction, trust, favoritism, and relationships, absolutely not. AI won't be able to take the place of a high powered and well connected attorney, or an experienced Wall Street banker. It just won't happen. I think AI will primarily become another tool in the corporate arsenal, at least for the foreseeable future, with a side gig as entertainment and a tool here and there for us mortals. The days where college kids can use it to cheat their way through school are also numbered.
I have no crystal ball, so will shall see, I suppose.
[Edit]
This is my idea of a fine and fun automobile:
I'm old school, stuck somewhere 20 years in the past.
