Originally Posted By: Vuflanovsky
OP,
I think you might do well to think about the investments and the investment house that's providing whatever fund you get into...you're always going to get the argument of indexing versus actively managed funds as either will give a better rate of return in a specific cycle or date range.
I would be less concerned about the .26 versus .08 percent expense ratios and more concerned about how they typically invest. If one fund has 15% more stock then it likely won't matter over the course of x years what the expense ratio is versus the cheaper fund. One study I saw had a typical balanced fund showing to outperform some target date funds over several years just because there can be upside ( vs. an index fund ) and downside protection ( vs. a more static target date fund or index fund ).
It's also about what they pay you and not just what they cost. I can never do worse than the benchmark in an index fund but I also can never do better. There's a mindset involved with either style but that doesn't mean that you shouldn't be aware of anything other than the expense ratio and your projected retirement date to make your decision.
And there's the central point that Jack Bogle makes.
Some funds will do better than the market. But 95% of funds will UNDERPERFORM the market.
I'll let you read his book to understand why...but in the aggregate, funds are the market, so they must arithmetically, and in the aggregate, underperform by the amount of their fees. When correcting for survivor bias (the worst funds close, so you can't see how badly they underperform in your retroactive analysis), it really is 95% of funds that under perform.
So, the question for the small investor, do you think you can pick one of those 5%? Further, that 5% isn't the same funds each year, so you think that you can pick them over and over? Seriously?
If I told you that you could score in the 95th percentile on your SATs, you would be thrilled. You would have over 1500.
So, why aren't you thrilled to perform that well in investing?
The answer has to do with false hope, sales pitches, and inability to accurately predict returns, and greed...but it's a trap...and index investing is the way to avoid it...