Unemployment up

[digitalSniperX1]

I'm sure construction unemployment is higher than the national average. I don't know about retail.

I don't think any segment (except government) is unaffected by the current downturn including health care (for example, I've read nurses are being laid off and I know a nurse who has concurred with what I read).

We do have insight into local small business here and it is definitely hurting from listening to the contacts we have.

Not sure if this answers your question.

If you're a construction worker and happen to be a white male...well hopefully you're not dependant on the "stimulus". Of course I'm not sure if this is the policy as I don't think Reich is working for this adminstration (directly).

See for yourself.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opxuUj6vFa4

 

[Gary Allan]

Does it matter? There are regenerative cycles with assured leakage and losses. Major reduction in production? Lower levels of regenerative co-product.

An indicator becomes in initiator depending on where you enter the cycle.

 

[TurboLuver]

Originally Posted By: Gary Allan
(imagined dialog at Tempest's meeting of "the militia")

Well, I'm here to give you some good news

Productivity rose for the last month


..and more good news.

Unemployment is up too. We've managed to kick about 520,000 more useless eaters to the curb. Dead weight all.

(Visions of a warped Promise Keepers convention adapted from a Playboy parody for "the militia")

I promise to tell them they have pension benefits ..and I promise to never deliver them

Good one.

 

[Kestas]

A lot of suppliers around here on dire straits put their employees on one week unpaid leave every month or two. This is a lot better than playing 'musical chairs' with their positions.

 

[buster]

I think we are going over 10%. Maybe even 12% if oil prices get out of hand.

 

[jsharp]

The next 2 months will take us over 10% We're seeing about 1/2% rise per month.

IMO you can expect oil to go higher too, further tanking the economy. The speculators, wait, we call them "investors" now don't we? are out in force lately, claiming the recent price increases are due to "increased demand in China" never mind that inventories are at a 20 year high.

Hey, the suckers bought it last year, why not try it again?

Exhibit A: http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapita...h-means-85-oil/

Maybe promoting Goldman Sachs to the level of a 4th branch of government isn't such a great idea after all? I mean it's good for them, taking tax $ and using it to run up commodity prices. But what's in it for the rest of us exactly?

The falling dollar and crushing debt aren't helping either. Hard to imagine that printing up a few trillion $ from thin air and borrowing a few trillion more might devalue the dollars already in existence. I'm sure helicopter Ben and the Messiah have a plan . Really they do.

The conclusion seems simpler though - We are so screwed...

 

[Gary Allan]

Quote:
Hard to imagine that printing up a few trillion $ from thin air and borrowing a few trillion more might devalue the dollars already in existence.


I a true departure from my usual garbage.

What is the difference between printing up a few trillion $$ over the passed few months ...accumulating debt ..and the vapor of new home starts which created the same money out of thin air ..and built a bunch of stuff that now has no value ..over a decade. Our debt swelled from a couple of trillion to almost 10T over an 8 year period.

What is the difference now? Now I'll say that what had such banging performance in results before is probably an act you really don't want to repeat, but it didn't seem like such a flawed model, with many of the same fundamental elements, while it was in motion last time.

I really want to understand here.

 

[jsharp]

The home starts didn't "create the money." They were financed by "money" the Fed flushed into the economy after 9/11. The money caused huge price inflation in assets that has now collapsed.

Our answer seems to be, lets just flood still more money into the system in the hope that we can keep the bubble somewhat inflated, or at least keep the rate of deflation under control.

That might work but for one problem. We don't actually have the money. We have to borrow it.

So yes, it's similar to the homeowners who thought they were rich because their houses kept going up in value every year even though their wages were stagnant or declining.

 

[jsharp]

One other problem with the helicopter method. Even with Goldman's and the rest of the TARP investment banks as part of the executive branch, we really don't have control over where this newly injected "liquidity" goes. So we see it produce other bubbles like oil spiking to $150 a barrel, corn at $9 a bushel, $1000 gold etc.

Pump enough $ in without underlying wealth to support it and it debases your currency. It can't work any other way.

 

[Gary Allan]

Quote:
The home starts didn't "create the money."


This is counter to my new understanding that money is [censored] into existence when someone agrees to repay a loan. That is, money that is borrowed (lines of credit, construction mortgages, regular mortgages, home equity loans) never existed before the moment that a debtor agreed to repay it.

Access to it is usually regulated by interest rates.

Is this not so?

 

[jsharp]

The home starts were a result of the low interest money made available. So yes, the act of borrowing the money and spending it on a mortgage "created the $." But it could have been any type of loan and it was only possible because the fed cut interest rates low enough to make it possible.

The problem wasn't homes, it was the increase in the money supply so abruptly. That's what I meant.

 

[jsharp]

No need to worry about the unemployment numbers. We have many programs to take care of those people. And since "the government is paying for them", they're all free.

Benefit spending soars to new high.

By Dennis Cauchon, USA TODAY

The recession is driving the safety net of government benefits to a historic high, as one of every six dollars of Americans' income is now coming in the form of a federal or state check or voucher.

Benefits, such as Social Security, food stamps, unemployment insurance and health care, accounted for 16.2% of personal income in the first quarter of 2009, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. That's the highest percentage since the government began compiling records in 1929.


http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-06-03-benefits_N.htm

 

[Tempest]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/05/AR2009060500277_2.html
Quote:
-The 9.4 percent May unemployment rate is based on 14.5 million Americans out of work. But that number doesn't include discouraged workers, people who gave up looking for work after four weeks. Add those 792,000 people, and the unemployment rate is 9.8 percent.

-The official rate also doesn't include "marginally attached workers," or people who have looked for work in the past year but stopped searching in the past month because of barriers to employment such as child care, poor health or lack of transportation. Add those 1.4 million people, and the unemployment rate would be 10.6 percent.

-The official rate also doesn't include "involuntary part-time workers," or the 2.2 million people like Noel who took a part-time job because that's all they could get, plus those whose work hours dropped below the full-time level. Once those 9.1 million workers are added to the unemployment mix, the rate would be 16.4 percent.

All told, nearly 25 million Americans were either unemployed, underemployed or had given up looking for a job in May

And:
Quote:
When the first numbers are released in December 2010, the Census Bureau will have spent more than $11 billion and hired about 1.2 million temporary employees.

 

[Tempest]

Originally Posted By: jsharp
No need to worry about the unemployment numbers. We have many programs to take care of those people. And since "the government is paying for them", they're all free.

Benefit spending soars to new high.

By Dennis Cauchon, USA TODAY

The recession is driving the safety net of government benefits to a historic high, as one of every six dollars of Americans' income is now coming in the form of a federal or state check or voucher.

Benefits, such as Social Security, food stamps, unemployment insurance and health care, accounted for 16.2% of personal income in the first quarter of 2009, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. That's the highest percentage since the government began compiling records in 1929.


http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-06-03-benefits_N.htm

1 in 6 dollars come from gov. programs... But the economy is recovering right?

 

[Gary Allan]

Originally Posted By: Tempest
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/05/AR2009060500277_2.html
Quote:
-The 9.4 percent May unemployment rate is based on 14.5 million Americans out of work. But that number doesn't include discouraged workers, people who gave up looking for work after four weeks. Add those 792,000 people, and the unemployment rate is 9.8 percent.

-The official rate also doesn't include "marginally attached workers," or people who have looked for work in the past year but stopped searching in the past month because of barriers to employment such as child care, poor health or lack of transportation. Add those 1.4 million people, and the unemployment rate would be 10.6 percent.

-The official rate also doesn't include "involuntary part-time workers," or the 2.2 million people like Noel who took a part-time job because that's all they could get, plus those whose work hours dropped below the full-time level. Once those 9.1 million workers are added to the unemployment mix, the rate would be 16.4 percent.

All told, nearly 25 million Americans were either unemployed, underemployed or had given up looking for a job in May

And:
Quote:
When the first numbers are released in December 2010, the Census Bureau will have spent more than $11 billion and hired about 1.2 million temporary employees.



That's funny. The same funny numbers were pure and accurate over the previous 8 years ... Now the "fudge factor" is a big deal to you.

Tempest- Was Maud'Dib your super hero wannbe self image?

"I shall bend like a reed in the wind" I guess if you can imagine your words having any weight....

 

[Kestas]

A long time ago (1980) I finished my intensive schooling in engineering, only to find that there was no work for me. Unemployment was worse than it is today. I couldn't qualify for unemployment benefits because you first need to have had a job to get laid off. Nobody ever asked ME if I had a job. I always wondered who else fell through the cracks in these numbers.

 

[Dave Hess]

Many college grads today are in the same boat you were in.

 

[digitalSniperX1]

Originally Posted By: jsharp


The conclusion seems simpler though - We are so screwed...



We are potentially seeing the beginning of the end and "screwed" doesn't begin to describe what will be happening if the end does come unless "screwed" includes...nevermind.

 

[Tempest]

Quote:
The same funny numbers were pure and accurate over the previous 8 years ... Now the "fudge factor" is a big deal to you.

 

[MarkC]

Originally Posted By: digitalSniperX1
lol, ok.

Oh, my neighbor is NASA rocket scientist.

He calls our little town here "Oh-VEE-DOE".

I keep telling him he's an ignorant florida cracker...everyone (IN SPAIN) knows it's pronounced

OH-VEE-A-DOE.

Jeesh!


You don't seem to be aware of the distinction between being uneducated and being ignorant.