U.S. population change forecast 2025 to 2050 by state

[GON]

Source is the University of Virginia, Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.

Texas leads the way in the forecast, followed by Florida. The chart shows percentages, not actual numbers of forecast of gains/ losses. If actual numbers were used, Illinois would show the great population loss by state forecasted over the next 25 years.

 

[clinebarger]

Texas better start digging some more reservoirs & build some new power plants if that number is accurate.

 

[fdcg27]

The methodology employed is heavily based upon the assumption that past is prologue.
Over the short term this is probably reasonable, but over a quarter of a century it might not be.
Interesting to see that Oregon, Washington, California and Nevada are all forecast to see significant population growth.
I thought everyone was fleeing those states

 

[skyactiv]

Will Idahoans appreciate the growth and looming culture shift?

 

[SevenBizzos]

That's only a one million people population loss for Illinois. We're losing 100k a year now, so there's no way that will be accurate. Just can't pin my finger on why.....

 

[RedSpider]

I dont know about Idaho, but Utah and Montana wont be too receptive to it. They hate tourists enough there even knowing they are going to leave soon, when these people become residents their heads will explode.

I dont understand the 27% increase for Texas. I travel there enough that I dont need to live there. I could never do it, I need my diet to consist of something other than brisket, they seem just a tad obsessed. My brother lived down there for four years after college, and in his words "I loved it, but four years was plenty enough..." I enjoy working down there for a week or two at a time, the people I deal with are awesome and the restaurant scene is light years better than anything near my home, but I have no desire to live there.

And 34% for North Dakota and 10% for Minnesota? Someone would definitely have to explain that one to me.

The -8% for Illinois, I can absolutely understand that one....

 

[SC Maintenance]

What would be really cool is to see if the same researchers had a population prediction 25 years ago, and how it turned out?

 

[SC Maintenance]

The table is predicting 372M total population. That would assume massive immigration because our birth rate is well below replacement. Current is 1.6 and falling fast. 2.1 is replacement rate.

So I guess the question is where the immigrants are likely to move to?

 

[alarmguy]

Got to love forecasts, cant trust the weather forecast and zero reason to trust this one. Fortune telling. BTW- after over 200 years of publishing there is no Farmers Almanac for 2026

 

[gman2304]

looming culture shift?

Assimilation is the key…….

 

[Nessism1]

The methodology employed is heavily based upon the assumption that past is prologue.
Over the short term this is probably reasonable, but over a quarter of a century it might not be.
Interesting to see that Oregon, Washington, California and Nevada are all forecast to see significant population growth.
I thought everyone was fleeing those states

The claim is 9% population growth overall. If CA is 8%, they are growing less than average.

 

[MrHorspwer]

The infographic is wrong. This isn't a forecast, this is a projection. There is a difference.

Go to the source: Copper Center calls this "National and 50-State Population Projection"

Everything in this thread, immigration policy, energy and water in Texas, culture shifts, etc. are all externalities. Those are part of a forecast, which determines what is expected to happen based on expected actions. Projections are math based on a foundational assumption. From there, you can create different projections by including different hypothetical externalities: What are projected populations is Arizona ran out of water? What are projected populations is Texas ran out of energy? What are projected populations is California broke off and fell into the Pacific?

Take this to the oil world, if you're doing oil analysis and your TBN decreased by 50% over the course of 6 months and 5,000 miles, you can create a projection that the TBN will be fully depleted in another 6 months at 10,000 miles. What this particular projection doesn't take into account is that the next 6 months will be much cold, resulting in more cold idling and fuel dilution, likely eroding the TBN more quickly. The more data you have to support a projection, the better the projection will be. Having 12 months of data instead of 6 would make this a much better projection. This could then be used to help forecast when I should schedule my next oil change.

You can also see their methodology to understand how the projection is built: https://www.coopercenter.org/sites/default/files/2025-01/NationalProjections_Methodology2024.pdf

What would be really cool is to see if the same researchers had a population prediction 25 years ago, and how it turned out?

The Cooper Center did (almost). In 2010, they projected to results of the 2020 census. 10 years, not 25, but they were within 0.33%.
https://www.coopercenter.org/research/how-accurate-are-our-50-state-population-projections

 

[Astro14]

The methodology employed is heavily based upon the assumption that past is prologue.
Over the short term this is probably reasonable, but over a quarter of a century it might not be.
Interesting to see that Oregon, Washington, California and Nevada are all forecast to see significant population growth.
I thought everyone was fleeing those states

I agree. I can’t see North Dakota beating states like Colorado for percentage of population growth. The influx in recent years is largely in oil and gas, and that’s not going to grow, at least not as it has recently.

 

[JimPghPA]

Does the over all tally of population growth or decline, line up with known recent birth rates?

If our population demographics is an upside down Christmas tree, how can the over all tally look like positive over all population growth in 25 years?

I ain't buying it.

 

[IndyFan]

The methodology employed is heavily based upon the assumption that past is prologue.
Over the short term this is probably reasonable, but over a quarter of a century it might not be.
Interesting to see that Oregon, Washington, California and Nevada are all forecast to see significant population growth.
I thought everyone was fleeing those states

Not sure if this has any validity, but I'd love to see the migration and population growth broken down by SES. Might tell an interesting story of where the population growth is actually occurring in CA.

 

[Vil_Riker]

Does the over all tally of population growth or decline, line up with known recent birth rates?

If our population demographics is an upside down Christmas tree, how can the over all tally look like positive over all population growth in 25 years?

I ain't buying it.

Its assuming immigration which might be valid despite the recent developments.

 

[GON]

I agree. I can’t see North Dakota beating states like Colorado for percentage of population growth. The influx in recent years is largely in oil and gas, and that’s not going to grow, at least not as it has recently.

@Astro14 , I have no idea what the growth spur in North Dakota might be. Could it be the same reason Wisconsin has been growing (flight from Illinois)? People from Minnesota fleeing to North Dakota, along with organic growth?

I couldn't find reliable publicly available data that specifies how many people moved from Illinois to Wisconsin between 2000 and 2025 as a cumulative total. This is what I did find:

• From 2006–2015: Illinois had a net out-migration of about 86,000 people to Wisconsin (i.e., more left Illinois for Wisconsin than the reverse) over that decade.
• In 2022: about 27,369 people moved from Illinois to Wisconsin.

Here is another way to look at the numbers:

North Dakota 2025 population: 804, 809
North Dakota projected 2050 population: 1, 078, 444
North Dakota 25 year projected population gain: 273, 635

Colorado 2025 population: 6,013, 650
Colorado projected 2050 population: 7,757, 608
Colorado 25 year projected population gain: 1,743,958

Using actual population rather than percentages, Colorado will grow by its actual population 600 percent more than North Dakota over the next 25 years.

 

[Cujet]

Some interesting thoughts.

1970 203M, the same year the replacement birth rate permanently dropped below 2.1 children per American woman.
2025 335M+ population
Over that time we've had approx 35M folks come here and become citizens. Yes, some estimates are higher, but the numbers are relatively modest.
The remainder are a mix of birthright citizens and non citizens.

The population predictions might need adjustment. We are already seeing lower vehicle counts in key locations.

 

[Burt]

Texas better start digging some more reservoirs & build some new power plants if that number is accurate.

1,500 people arrive in Texas every day on a net basis. Think about that. Illinois needs to manage its spending and debt as it will be spread over a smaller and smaller base.

 

[4wd]

1,500 people arrive in Texas every day on a net basis. Think about that. Illinois needs to manage its spending and debt as it will be spread over a smaller and smaller base.

That must have been the hourly rate recently …