OK, it's been a long time, but I just finished putting everything back together today.
I replaced: cap, rotor, cam position sensor, plugs, wires.
I bought a coil but didn't have much luck drilling out the rivets holding the old one on (I really need to get a 120V AC drill and some new bits) and it was getting late in the day so I just put the old one back on to see what would happen figuring I can either replace it later or maybe just return the new one.
The engine started right up.
It's got a CEL with code P1345, which hopefully just means the timing is a tad off. I ended up having to remove the distributor because I broke off a screw head when putting the new cam position sensor in and while I was pretty careful labeling its position I'm guessing I was a degree off or something. At least I hope it's that instead of a problem with the new sensor. One of the plug wire connections on the dist is pushing up against the upper intake manifold too, which gave me a hint that the dist position might be a bit off.
So the verdict is that the problem was spark, not fuel. Since I shotgunned all this stuff (thanks for putting the distributor behind the intake manifold, GM!) we'll never know what specific part was causing the problem, but from the conditions of the old parts I'd guess it was the cap, although the CMP sensor seems likely too even though it wouldn't show any wear visibly.
Given the engine starts and runs now, is there any reason for me to replace the coil vs just return the new once, since removing the old one is turning out to be a pain?