For the second year in a row, a near severe hurricance season was predicted and everything is as quiet as a mouse (just like last year). When are they going to realize that meteorologists/climatologists have a hard enough time predicting what will happen one week from now let alone several months on a global scale. It is all shock value for the media.
Tropical Prediction Center....What a waste.
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Kestas
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Agreed. Earth has way too many variables for a climatologist to predict what effect any one input has on the earth's climate. I've seen computer models try to predict climate where the final result was all the earth's oceans froze solid to the bottom!
It's the scientists who predict doom and gloom that get the press. Nobody listens to the one's that say things are same-ole same-ole.
It's the scientists who predict doom and gloom that get the press. Nobody listens to the one's that say things are same-ole same-ole.
Are you serious?
Posting on thin ice here.
Sure I'm serious. Not only is it something for every news outlet to talk about (which unnecessarily scares people), it directly effects what happens on Wall Street. The day their severe tropical prediction came out this year, the price of oil jumped significantly....and the price increase was attibuted to this prediction. I hope no taxpayer money is used to "predict" such nonsense.
Don't forget the season peaks in late August/early September, so it is a bit early to write the predictions off.
When the 2006 forecast came out, I laughed. They were using the previous year's data to predict the following year.
In BITOG terms: do we predict the next UOA on the previous UOA's performance when we don't know the variables yet? Heck no.
I thought to myself, dear G0D, show those who think they know better that this will be a fizzle year. And when the 2006 season was 'over', it was a fizzle. They blamed it on high level winds. Well, if they're really going to predict something, you'd think they would have KNOWN those upper level winds would shear off all the storm intensity. But of course, they didn't.
Weather and software have a lot in common: you can be completely wrong and still have a job.
Ask the aviators in our crowd...how far out is an accurate forecast accepted? 12 hours? 18 hours?
Predicting an entire season is laughable. The Weather channel should be the Comedy Channel II.
In BITOG terms: do we predict the next UOA on the previous UOA's performance when we don't know the variables yet? Heck no.
I thought to myself, dear G0D, show those who think they know better that this will be a fizzle year. And when the 2006 season was 'over', it was a fizzle. They blamed it on high level winds. Well, if they're really going to predict something, you'd think they would have KNOWN those upper level winds would shear off all the storm intensity. But of course, they didn't.
Weather and software have a lot in common: you can be completely wrong and still have a job.
Ask the aviators in our crowd...how far out is an accurate forecast accepted? 12 hours? 18 hours?
Predicting an entire season is laughable. The Weather channel should be the Comedy Channel II.
it seems like weathermen are often wrong. the weather channel for instance often says chance of rain xx%. this precentage they put out is almost awalys 10 times too high. and i have NEVER seen them say the chance of rain is zero!
i got this little theory i made up about how they actually predict the weather. they take a raw egg and make an arror on it. they spin the egg and then watch and see which direction it points. a previously determined direction means rain, sunny, overcast, etc.
thats about how accurite they are.
i got this little theory i made up about how they actually predict the weather. they take a raw egg and make an arror on it. they spin the egg and then watch and see which direction it points. a previously determined direction means rain, sunny, overcast, etc.
thats about how accurite they are.
That is what it is
How can you NOT say the pop news hypes just about everything....except maybe some occasional good news about the USA?
Although local current weather prediction is MUCH better than in the past.
Distant future (beyond a month) weather prognostication is tea leaves, part deux.
Although local current weather prediction is MUCH better than in the past.
To be fair, according to NOAA, and average hurricane season has 6-14 named stormns,4-8 hurricanes, and 1-3 Cat 3 + hurricanes.
Dr. William Gray's averages are 9.6, 5.9 and 2.3.
2006 has 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 Cat 3 + hurricanes. The main difference was that none made landfall in the US.
The pre-season estimate was indeed too high, though it was lowered in mid-season.
There was a fast-developing El Nino and a big high pressure system near Bermuda which helped put the damper on things.
Having said that, I also hate the "Big News" aspect of weather reporting these days.
"This just in! Tonight...very good chance of darkness!"
Dr. William Gray's averages are 9.6, 5.9 and 2.3.
2006 has 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 Cat 3 + hurricanes. The main difference was that none made landfall in the US.
The pre-season estimate was indeed too high, though it was lowered in mid-season.
There was a fast-developing El Nino and a big high pressure system near Bermuda which helped put the damper on things.
Having said that, I also hate the "Big News" aspect of weather reporting these days.
"This just in! Tonight...very good chance of darkness!"
Kestas
Staff member
... with widely scattered daylight by morning!
8/26/05, Friday am. Katrina's landfall is predicted at Pensacola on Sunday, 8/27/05 at Sunday pm. Life is good unless you live on the panhandle. 8/26/05, Friday noon. Over the course of four hours the official predicted track is now shifted 150 miles westward to about the mouth of the Pearl River less than two days from expected landfall. Uh,oh. Time to break out the plywood and 5 gal gas cans. Monday, 8/29/05, Monday pm. Where did my 16 acres of mature mixed trees go?
I still pay attention even though I am 200 miles inland from the Gulfcoast.
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