Toyota press conference on solid state batteries

[nicholas]

Replacement batteries for a hybrid car run approximately 2 to $8,000

If one assumes that it's the material for the battery that is the vast majority of the cost then if the ratio was 90 to 1 then a battery replacement for a all electric vehicle would run between $180,000 to $720,000

This alone would indicate that a 90 to 1 ratio is probably overstating things but it may be more than a 9 to 1 ratio.

Your financial logic is not sound.
You are using retail pricing to prove your point.
Manufacturer costs are much different.

Nice try though

Go get some actual data to prove your 9-1.

 

[alarmguy]

That is the correct answer. For Toyota's scale they can't just build willy nilly like Tesla does, and call Full Self Driving Beta (Full and Beta should never be on the same sentence). They also need to make sure things they build won't be half assed or they can quickly go out of business.

Well said. If Toyota built the vehicles only like Tesla, Toyota would be out of business.
The marketplace in this world, in this country that Tesla sells to is a mere pittance compared to the variety of vehicles that Toyota builds.
Not even close to the same class, as Toyota is a giant here compared to a small vehicle maker, that caters this to a very small part of the market which is compact EV only vehicles.
Tesla has not even been able to come out with a competitive truck that they’ve been promising for three years now that’s pretty poor performance.

With that said, the good news is, they are into other aspects of technology unrelated to vehicles, so hopefully they can survive because they will never do it on vehicles, at least based on their current track record.

The world has come out with countless new EV vehicles, and they’re just getting started yet Tesla has been unable to get a truck one truck off the ground and finally after I think three years of promises, it’s finally being delivered

 

[VersatileGuy]

It is mind boggling Toyota is so late to the EV space given their success with hybrids. They still make the best hybrids; I own one and it's great. They kicked their CEO upstairs and replaced him with a more EV progressive executive.

As others have pointed out, there is no silver bullet; transportation energy sources will come from a number of sources, including oil.
Electricity consumption is expected to double in the coming years.

Interestingly, CA has been working on the ocean's kinetic energy to generate electricity; the waves don't go to sleep when the sun goes down. They continue to go up and down and side to side.
CalWave

From a SJ Merc-News Editorial
"The National Renewable Energy Lab has reported that U.S. marine energy resources are equal to roughly 57% of the nation’s 2019 electricity generation — enough to power approximately 220 million U.S. homes. According to the lab, California’s marine energy resource potential could supply power to approximately 13 million homes."

Science and innovation are awesome; the answers are out there.

Toyota Hybrids are better than pure EVs. Grid "independence" has its perks. Toyota cornered the "reliable appliance" part of the vehicle market. The other makes have gone EV because the motor might be reliable but they can engineer obsolescence elsewhere. Mechanics push inquiring customers to go Toyota not for their own benefit(getting a Toyota means less trips to the mechanic, generally speaking). That's what influenced my mother to buy a Toyota Matrix.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Toyota Hybrids are better than pure EVs. Grid "independence" has its perks. Toyota cornered the "reliable appliance" part of the vehicle market. The other makes have gone EV because the motor might be reliable but they can engineer obsolescence elsewhere. Mechanics push inquiring customers to go Toyota not for their own benefit(getting a Toyota means less trips to the mechanic, generally speaking). That's what influenced my mother to buy a Toyota Matrix.

Well, that depends on your use case.
I own a Toyota hybrid; it's great. I own a Tesla EV; it's great too.
I also own a Toyota V8; it's great too. I own 2 60's V8s; they're great as well.

If I were buying a pickup, it would be an ICE vehicle; an SUV, not sure; a sedan would be an EV.
My next car will be another EV; I can't wait for it to be available.

 

[wag123]

In addition to what has already been mentioned in this thread, Toyota is spending an inordinate amount of time, money, and effort on solid state battery development because they are afraid of lithium ion batteries (not in small part due to potential product liability concerns). This is why they are using NiMh batteries in most of their hybrids and slow-walking the production and sale of BEVs. Lithium ion batteries are dangerous, for real, especially when produced in sizes powerful enough use in vehicles. The BEV manufacturers are downplaying this danger, but they are keeping their fingers crossed that Toyota and the other solid state battery developers come with them very soon.

If I owned a BEV I would NOT park it in my garage.

 

[OVERKILL]

In addition to what has already been mentioned in this thread, Toyota is spending an inordinate amount of time, money, and effort on solid state battery development because they are afraid of lithium ion batteries (not in small part due to potential product liability concerns). This is why they are using NiMh batteries in most of their hybrids and slow-walking the production and sale of BEVs. Lithium ion batteries are dangerous, for real, especially when produced in sizes powerful enough use in vehicles. The BEV manufacturers are downplaying this danger, but they are keeping their fingers crossed that Toyota and the other solid state battery developers come with them very soon.

If I owned a BEV I would NOT park it in my garage.

As I've mentioned, solid state technology is still lithium based and still has the potential for thermal runaway. Like Lithium iron phosphate, it's lower risk, but it's still there. The main advantage is the potential for faster charging.

 

[wag123]

As I've mentioned, solid state technology is still lithium based and still has the potential for thermal runaway. Like Lithium iron phosphate, it's lower risk, but it's still there. The main advantage is the potential for faster charging.

Much of Toyota's efforts are focused on other materials which are not prone to thermal runaway, like the article referenced in the beginning of this thread said... "This collaboration (with Idemitsu) focuses on sulfide solid electrolytes". Toyota appears to be VERY focused on the safety aspect of their solid state battery development. There really doesn't seem to be much of a point in developing batteries for the future that have the same safety concerns as lithium ion batteries do, even if they will charge faster.

 

[OVERKILL]

Much of Toyota's efforts are focused on other materials which are not prone to thermal runaway, like the article referenced in the beginning of this thread said... "This collaboration (with Idemitsu) focuses on sulfide solid electrolytes". Toyota appears to be VERY focused on the safety aspect of their solid state battery development. There really doesn't seem to be much of a point in developing batteries for the future that have the same safety concerns as lithium ion batteries do, even if they will charge faster.

I'm going by this bit:

Idemitsu has also been developing production technologies of lithium sulfide which is an intermediate material for solid electrolytes, using by-products which are generated in the course of petroleum refining.

We are confident that sulfide-based solid electrolytes are the most promising solution for battery EV issues such as cruising range and charging times.

These electrolytes are made from sulfur components generated when manufacturing petroleum products.

They are byproducts of improving petroleum products. Idemitsu discovered the usefulness of sulfur components in the mid-1990s, and through our research and technological capabilities cultivated over many years, we have succeeded in creating a solid electrolyte.

 

[BLND1]

It is mind boggling Toyota is so late to the EV space given their success with hybrids. They still make the best hybrids; I own one and it's great. They kicked their CEO upstairs and replaced him with a more EV progressive executive.

As others have pointed out, there is no silver bullet; transportation energy sources will come from a number of sources, including oil.
Electricity consumption is expected to double in the coming years.

Interestingly, CA has been working on the ocean's kinetic energy to generate electricity; the waves don't go to sleep when the sun goes down. They continue to go up and down and side to side.
CalWave

From a SJ Merc-News Editorial
"The National Renewable Energy Lab has reported that U.S. marine energy resources are equal to roughly 57% of the nation’s 2019 electricity generation — enough to power approximately 220 million U.S. homes. According to the lab, California’s marine energy resource potential could supply power to approximately 13 million homes."

Science and innovation are awesome; the answers are out there.

Offshore wind is a minefield to permit in CA. Offshore tidal will be even more of a minefield.

NIMBYs and a hundred other NGO’s will skewer all who attempt it.

Recent changes to certain CEQA/CESA exemptions will help but not alleviate the regulatory minefield.

California will need to legislate a complete exemption from CA regularly laws to make it happen. Good luck with that, since every other industry will ask for carve outs and it will end with non-renewable corps putting their thumbs on the scale to kill it when they don’t get those carve outs.

I don’t see Toyota really behind AT ALL in the space. There is nothing revolutionary in EV or batteries at the moment. Every manufacturer is putting out the same car, from Tesla to Ford, just pick your badge.

I can see Toyota leveraging global energy sources and demand until truly revolutionary battery or other EV tech comes out. You can expect to see Toyota jump at that point - and since it’s Toyota they will sell. As you mention, their hybrids are industry leading, you can expect a full fledge Toyota EV with revolutionary tech to assume its place at the top when they do decide to jump.

They just aren’t chicken littles jumping into the market to supply wealthy urbanites while ignoring the other 80% of the US population.

 

[BLND1]

Well, that depends on your use case.
I own a Toyota hybrid; it's great. I own a Tesla EV; it's great too.
I also own a Toyota V8; it's great too. I own 2 60's V8s; they're great as well.

If I were buying a pickup, it would be an ICE vehicle; an SUV, not sure; a sedan would be an EV.
My next car will be another EV; I can't wait for it to be available.

Wealthy Bay Area urbanites can afford 6 cars. Most of the country cannot. And relying on or paying for a an EV isn’t in the cards for the overwhelming majority of one or even two car households.

 

[PandaBear]

Wealthy Bay Area urbanites can afford 6 cars. Most of the country cannot. And relying on or paying for a an EV isn’t in the cards for the overwhelming majority of one or even two car households.

I don't think most urban Bay Area people can find space to park 6. I think people usually sell their old cars when they buy a newer ones.

Sometimes it make sense to upgrade. I love to keep driving my old Corolla past 270k, but it has a 3 speed auto and only gives me an average of 26mpg. Gas is $5-6/gal here and a tank is probably $50-70 now? Makes sense to sell it and buy a newer car that gives me 35-50mpg right?

Someone in rural America, Africa, Mexico, Afghan, etc may just need a car to get around, 5 miles a day, and can hand rebuild everything at $5/hr mechanic labor. We can't do that in the Bay Area.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Wealthy Bay Area urbanites can afford 6 cars. Most of the country cannot. And relying on or paying for a an EV isn’t in the cards for the overwhelming majority of one or even two car households.

Sure, budget is a key use case component regardless of make.
By the way, the base Model 3 is cheaper than the average car purchase nowadays, which basically means, IMO, cars cost too much.

 

[alarmguy]

This is part of an EV enthusiast thread so it's understandable.
But you must keep an open mind. Just because you think the current battery EVs is the future OR you think that gasoline is going to go out of favor in the next 10 or 20 years. If you do think this, you need to be more objective.

I wont be on this earth anymore in 50 years and if another solution to EV cars powered by the current generation of batteries and an electric grid to support them. Gasoline will still be the main source of energy for a vehicle to think otherwise is foolish>
There maybe hope in some revolutionary way maybe with a fuel cell to generate energy for the car.
But to think gasoline will not rule the USA for the next half century is foolish. Current EV technology is primitive and ZERO generating capacity to support it. This isnt to say there will be no EV's of course they will but to think they are going to take over the world makes me crazy with that kind of thinking. The world will be awash in EVs that no one wants... But I suspect the big guys already know that.

The world largest automaker knows that = Toyota and guess what? GM is catching on, back tracking from its statements of being all electric in 2035. States back tracking on their statements to outlaw sales of gasoline cars in 2035. Ford commenting much the same
Tesla, the only all EV maker has lackluster sales!!!!! For goodness sakes a mere pittance of vehicles on USA roads are EV and we are already seeing wide availability of EVs.
The human race is an interesting bunch, no different than cattle or sheep, they all go one direction for a while then start to wonder why they are going that direction *LOL*

Anyway, todays news, keeping in mind GM is finishing up its own brand spanking new V-8 engine building facility because they know they are going to be wanted in the trucks they sell ... GM announced today it is going to delay by one year its new pick up truck production due to lackluster demand. and I think to myself ... ummm... like... yeah ... hello?


https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wir...ctric-pickup-truck-production-plant-104045665

"General Motors will delay electric pickup truck production at a factory near Detroit due to slowing U.S. demand for electric vehicles, to better manage its capital investments, and to make some engineering changes."

 

[UncleDave]

Ev's are the fastest growing vehicle segment in the US, and globally.

Demand for GM's EV's is likely not growing.

Their products are expensive and not competitive.

 

[97prizm]

I would say since they are the worlds largest producer they need all of them. Compared to the rest of the world the USA population is very small. As a global producer you need to look forward and have an open mind. We think we are a big country yet only hold 4.25% of the worlds population. Many don't even know that India has almost as much people as China.

With an open mind, so far no EV technology is proven to work for the entire world. Even in this forum for some reason people think a battery operated car is the end all and complete solution for EV cars. How can that be? In 50 years or 25 years this stuff might be a relic.
The average American who thinks battery operated EV is the solution. I have one question, where on earth do you think the electric power will come from?
It's silly to think the battery EV cars right now are the future without electricity to charge them and to think lithium is the answer to everything in the world I would suggest that is small thinking.

California is already telling people to limit their home charging. The UK already imports electricity to keep up.

 

[UncleDave]

California is already telling people to limit their home charging. The UK already imports electricity to keep up.

On the first one, sort of. Cant speak for UK, and dont really care what box they put themselves in.

It's true that at some times in certain places, California asks people to limit their home charging, positioning that as an ongoing limitation is inaccurate.

When one boils down when this happens, its been infrequent, its only in the summer, at predictable times(4-9) one wouldn't charge anyway (11-6) because thats when the price is cheapest.

I'm the first guy to pick on our grid, but at the start of each day one car gets "filled" 7 days a week at night, the other filled once or twice a week by going to a fueling station. This particular scenario doesn't really work as a reason to be anti EV's

I can find much better reasons not to like them, if that were my stance.

AI is going to make EV loads look like hand crank flashlights.

 

[PandaBear]

California is already telling people to limit their home charging. The UK already imports electricity to keep up.

Nice way to spin this when it is not true.

We have been telling people to limit duck curve electricity usage between 4pm-9pm, mainly because the sun is going down but the AC is still in high demand. Most people charge their EV outside of this time unless they have no choice (110V 12amp for long commute). If you have EV charging at home they DEMAND you switch to an EV rate, that's much cheaper midnight to 7am and tell you to charge during this time.

So the real problem is AC + solar panel in the summer, not EV charging.

 

[wag123]

Then, there is NASA...

 

[Brons2]

That is the correct answer. For Toyota's scale they can't just build willy nilly like Tesla does, and call Full Self Driving Beta (Full and Beta should never be on the same sentence). They also need to make sure things they build won't be half assed or they can quickly go out of business.

Hybrid is the right choice for long distance driving and plug in hybrid is the right choice for low hanging fruits to reduce the first 20 miles of a car's gasoline use with electric. It is the right approach and can dramatically cut oil consumption in the world, right now.

They just don't do go big or go home, and then only target the high end market. There are way more Corolla than Lexus on earth.

20 miles is useless for making gas "something I don't use that often"

I need 60 minimum. 100+ is preferable.

I personally think I'm better off just having 1 pure EV and 1 pure gas car, and leave the hybrids for the corolla/camry/civic/accord people.

 

[alarmguy]

Then, there is NASA...

Todays EVs will be relics once day = "vintage"
Same goes for anything electronic, not sure why anyone would think that todays battery EVs are the end all of the future, nothing can be further from the truth. Todays batteries are way too inconveinant for mass adoption, even if the electric grid could handle closing down all the gas stations in the country... Ummm... maybe next century.