THIS is Texas? 6º F

[OVERKILL]

ERCOT is technically working great.. to be pedantic. LOL. The gencos in the market are killing it if they have good gas contracts.. Transmission congestion is probably the hurdle right now.

The hurdle has been insufficient gas supply as heating was given priority, as well as plants not being hardened against extreme cold, which took out some thermal capacity as well. This resulted in rolling blackouts for some 20% of customers, I wouldn't describe that as "working great". The model IS working as intended though, which is why prices have gone the way they have the last few days. It's a market where wind has achieved a huge share but was not expected to show up in any significant capacity during this event which resulted in the burden falling on the shoulders of the gas gen that bids in to replace it when needed. This failed to deliver due to the issues already mentioned.

It exposes the vulnerability of the gas/wind pairing to extreme weather events, as, unlike a coal or nuclear plant, which have supply local to them, gas plants rely on what's essentially the fuel version of JIT. If that infrastructure is compromised, the wheels come off.

 

[JustinH]

Very tough few days near San Antonio. 4 inches of snow but it was 7 degrees yesterday. We had power for 2 hours yesterday total.

About 2am this morning I couldn't take it anymore, and started boiling pots of water to get some warm air in the house.

Power came on from 4am to 6pm, and we got the house heated up to 70 (it was 49 degrees inside the house).

Power went out again today at 6am, and came back just now at 10am.

I'm trying to knock out a few things for work, but I was so happy to take a hot shower and eat a toasted sandwich.

We went to get gas for my wifes Tuscon last night, and the pumps were frozen at the Valero. I pumped about 20 cents worth of nothing into the tank and took it back home.

We would have gone to a motel but we own the house and have two cats, and I didn't want to deal with burst pipes when I got home, so I tended them most of the night by dripping water.

It was 28 degrees yesterday afternoon, there was no restaurants open and the food in my fridge was rapidly decaying. Decided to grill chicken with my propane grill. I'm sure the neighbors think I'm a nut.

We are going to throw away the $200 in food I bought, what a shame.

 

[javacontour]

Moved here after 17 long years in Wyoming, for the purpose of getting away from this kind of b.s. weather. Sad to say, even -40 in Gillette, WY never crippled the infrastructure like 0 appears to in Dallas. ERCOT, pull your pants up.

I guess I didn't go far enough south. How's the real estate market in Brazil? Or maybe something right on the equator?

Belize is English speaking, if that helps.

 

[SZR48207]

Very tough few days near San Antonio. 4 inches of snow but it was 7 degrees yesterday. We had power for 2 hours yesterday total.

About 2am this morning I couldn't take it anymore, and started boiling pots of water to get some warm air in the house.

Power came on from 4am to 6pm, and we got the house heated up to 70 (it was 49 degrees inside the house).

Power went out again today at 6am, and came back just now at 10am.

I'm trying to knock out a few things for work, but I was so happy to take a hot shower and eat a toasted sandwich.

We went to get gas for my wifes Tuscon last night, and the pumps were frozen at the Valero. I pumped about 20 cents worth of nothing into the tank and took it back home.

We would have gone to a motel but we own the house and have two cats, and I didn't want to deal with burst pipes when I got home, so I tended them most of the night by dripping water.

It was 28 degrees yesterday afternoon, there was no restaurants open and the food in my fridge was rapidly decaying. Decided to grill chicken with my propane grill. I'm sure the neighbors think I'm a nut.

We are going to throw away the $200 in food I bought, what a shame.

Couldn't you have put your food outside to freeze it, or put it in a garage where its probably below 40*F anyway?

 

[Wolf359]

The hurdle has been insufficient gas supply as heating was given priority, as well as plants not being hardened against extreme cold, which took out some thermal capacity as well. This resulted in rolling blackouts for some 20% of customers, I wouldn't describe that as "working great". The model IS working as intended though, which is why prices have gone the way they have the last few days. It's a market where wind has achieved a huge share but was not expected to show up in any significant capacity during this event which resulted in the burden falling on the shoulders of the gas gen that bids in to replace it when needed. This failed to deliver due to the issues already mentioned.

It exposes the vulnerability of the gas/wind pairing to extreme weather events, as, unlike a coal or nuclear plant, which have supply local to them, gas plants rely on what's essentially the fuel version of JIT. If that infrastructure is compromised, the wheels come off.

There's always insufficient gas supply, that's standard in the Northeast too. I remember the gas plant I worked at could get curtailed for up to 4 days a year. Typically it was something like 12 hours or something like that so they could do multiple days. Just not enough gas supply to keep everyone warm at night and run the plant at the same time so they'd rather have less electricity than have people freeze at night. Plant didn't really care anyway, payment during the winter months was much lower than summer. They did have much higher power output in the winter due to the colder, denser air than in the summer though, something like 340 megawatts instead of 250 in the summer at the extremes, normally about 300.

 

[zzyzzx]

 

[M56959]

Folks please stay on topic. Climate change is political and will get this locked

 

[Wolf359]

Moved here after 17 long years in Wyoming, for the purpose of getting away from this kind of b.s. weather. Sad to say, even -40 in Gillette, WY never crippled the infrastructure like 0 appears to in Dallas. ERCOT, pull your pants up.

I guess I didn't go far enough south. How's the real estate market in Brazil? Or maybe something right on the equator?

Try the peaks of eternal light on the moon. Sunny all the time and no weather.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_of_eternal_light

 

[4WD]

The hurdle has been insufficient gas supply as heating was given priority, as well as plants not being hardened against extreme cold, which took out some thermal capacity as well. This resulted in rolling blackouts for some 20% of customers, I wouldn't describe that as "working great". The model IS working as intended though, which is why prices have gone the way they have the last few days. It's a market where wind has achieved a huge share but was not expected to show up in any significant capacity during this event which resulted in the burden falling on the shoulders of the gas gen that bids in to replace it when needed. This failed to deliver due to the issues already mentioned.

It exposes the vulnerability of the gas/wind pairing to extreme weather events, as, unlike a coal or nuclear plant, which have supply local to them, gas plants rely on what's essentially the fuel version of JIT. If that infrastructure is compromised, the wheels come off.

What a circus … a few years back they built LNG terminals to import gas … and nooooow >>>>

 

[RTexasF]

Record breaker this morning. The high & low shown are transposed....cold typist fingers maybe? Over four million without Texans without power. No telling how many without water.

 

[Wolf359]

What a circus … a few years back they built LNG terminals to import gas … and nooooow >>>>

Yeah, the gas increase has been due to Fracking. Now they're talking about exporting gas. But the main problem with gas hasn't been the supply, it's always been about the pipeline. If you can't supply it to where it's needed, doesn't matter how much gas you have. There's strong resistance to building new gas pipelines, same as nuclear plants.

 

[OVERKILL]

There's always insufficient gas supply, that's standard in the Northeast too. I remember the gas plant I worked at could get curtailed for up to 4 days a year. Typically it was something like 12 hours or something like that so they could do multiple days. Just not enough gas supply to keep everyone warm at night and run the plant at the same time so they'd rather have less electricity than have people freeze at night. Plant didn't really care anyway, payment during the winter months was much lower than summer. They did have much higher power output in the winter due to the colder, denser air than in the summer though, something like 340 megawatts instead of 250 in the summer at the extremes, normally about 300.

Wow, that's a HUGE swing in output! We see some heat impact at the nukes, but it is nothing like that. Darlington might be mid 880's in the winter months and drop down into the 860's, at worst the 850's during a really hot spell in the summer. Lake Ontario can get a bit warm, so there are output temp constraints that can temporarily result in output reductions, but they aren't common. Bruce is less affected as Lake Huron is bigger, she tends to hover around nameplate pretty much all year long.

 

[BlueOvalFitter]

Do they have snow plowing equipment or do you have to wait until the snow melts for clear roads? Up north we have experience driving on ice and snow and we still have many fender-benders. I can't imagine driving there with the majority not having experience on ice and snow.

We're in the same situation here in Central Louisiana. There isn't any road plows, but we have grader boxes on the back of our old Ford 3K tractors. It's up to 25* today and very sunny. Everything is melting, which is a good thing.

 

[tombalas]

Texas' unique "power island" concept has displayed its weakness - time for some regional interconnections to avoid future fiascos.

 

[SZR48207]

Texas' unique "power island" concept has displayed its weakness - time for some regional interconnections to avoid future fiascos.

https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/...91519/why-does-texas-have-its-own-power-grid/

Even today, ERCOT is also not completely isolated from other grids — as was evident last week when the state imported some power from Mexico during the rolling blackouts. ERCOT has three ties to Mexico and — as an outcome of the “Midnight Connection” battle — it also has two ties to the eastern U.S. grid, though they do not trigger federal regulation for ERCOT. All can move power commercially as well as be used in emergencies, according to ERCOT spokeswoman Dottie Roark. A possible sixth interconnection project, in Rusk County, is being studied, and another ambitious proposal, called Tres Amigas, would link the three big U.S. grids together in New Mexico, though Texas’ top utility regulator has shown little enthusiasm for participating.

 

[BlueOvalFitter]

Do they have snow plowing equipment or do you have to wait until the snow melts for clear roads? Up north we have experience driving on ice and snow and we still have many fender-benders. I can't imagine driving there with the majority not having experience on ice and snow.

Here in La., if someone throws an ice cube on the road all HADES breaks loose!

 

[RTexasF]

Texas' unique "power island" concept has displayed its weakness - time for some regional interconnections to avoid future fiascos.

More like Fantasy Island judging by the results. FAIL!

 

[Wolf359]

Wow, that's a HUGE swing in output! We see some heat impact at the nukes, but it is nothing like that. Darlington might be mid 880's in the winter months and drop down into the 860's, at worst the 850's during a really hot spell in the summer. Lake Ontario can get a bit warm, so there are output temp constraints that can temporarily result in output reductions, but they aren't common. Bruce is less affected as Lake Huron is bigger, she tends to hover around nameplate pretty much all year long.

That's basically from running a fixed air/fuel ratio mix. You don't have that with nuclear. Basically large jet turbines. Same issue with planes. If you pay attention in the summer, you hear about small plane crashes after take off all the time. Engine develops less power in the heat of the day and planes are overloaded so right after take off, not enough power to continue. Basically rated for about 300 megawatts at about 60 degrees, higher temperatures gave you less power and lower temperatures gave you more. At a certain point, even lower temperatures didn't increase output anymore because you had to use more power to keep the place warm. At the time I think the contract was for about 2 cents a kilowatt in the winter and 6 cents in the summer so if it got curtailed, no big deal in the winter and that was the only time there wasn't enough pipeline capacity. With the plant offline, it use to consume 5 megawatts just to keep things like motors and pumps operational so you had to deduct that from the total output.

 

[OVERKILL]

That's basically from running a fixed air/fuel ratio mix. You don't have that with nuclear. Basically large jet turbines. Same issue with planes. If you pay attention in the summer, you hear about small plane crashes after take off all the time. Engine develops less power in the heat of the day and planes are overloaded so right after take off, not enough power to continue. Basically rated for about 300 megawatts at about 60 degrees, higher temperatures gave you less power and lower temperatures gave you more. At a certain point, even lower temperatures didn't increase output anymore because you had to use more power to keep the place warm. At the time I think the contract was for about 2 cents a kilowatt in the winter and 6 cents in the summer so if it got curtailed, no big deal in the winter and that was the only time there wasn't enough pipeline capacity. With the plant offline, it use to consume 5 megawatts just to keep things like motors and pumps operational so you had to deduct that from the total output.

Makes perfect sense, I was thinking steam plant, but you are talking GT.

 

[4WD]

We're in the same situation here in Central Louisiana. There isn't any road plows, but we have grader boxes on the back of our old Ford 3K tractors. It's up to 25* today and very sunny. Everything is melting, which is a good thing.

The biggest snowplow I have seen working was a CAT 988 in a far away land …