THIS is Texas? 6º F

[Rmay635703]

Hmm, interesting this old video wasn’t posted back in the day



Main takeaway Texas grid is undersized and cannot provide peak heating power required in cold weather even when all sources are up and running

At least according to ERCOT, even if all power sources were online the grid would have still failed by design for most Texans due to being undersized.

 

[Pew]

Hmm, interesting this old video wasn’t posted back in the day


Main takeaway Texas grid is undersized and cannot provide peak heating power required in cold weather even when all sources are up and running

At least according to ERCOT, even if all power sources were online the grid would have still failed by design for most Texans due to being undersized.

That guy sounds annoying. Here's a better video about the power outage from a civil engineer and not somebody who's so focused on just the wind.

 

[OVERKILL]

That guy sounds annoying. Here's a better video about the power outage from a civil engineer and not somebody who's so focused on just the wind.

Great video! He touched on a lot of the points I made in the thread about the wind/gas pairing and its impact.

ERCOT had sufficient available capacity from a planning perspective. As he noted, demand peaked over 70,000MW earlier, and the grid was able to cope. However, the outages at the gas plants, coupled with the low wind speeds and outages at the wind farms, combined to make the situation dire, to the point where massive load shedding had to be undertaken to keep the grid up.

He also touched on the economics and "lean operation" I mentioned earlier in the thread, which a deregulated market like this, promotes. This does not incentivize investment in reliable excess capacity, because you don't get rewarded for having available capacity, you only get paid for meeting demand. So, spending money on prepping generators and infrastructure for rare events negatively impacts economics, you want to keep things as cheap as possible while keeping them maintained on the ragged edge of reliability. This works fine during normal conditions, but that lack of preparation for extremes leads to serious vulnerability when conditions depart from normal. It also means that there's not a lot of baked-in excess capacity, because there's no financial incentive to build a plant that will run rarely. I used an example of Lennox here in Ontario, which is a 2,140MW plant with a 1.5% capacity factor. Clearly, it does not run often. But, it's well maintained and available when needed. Very much the opposite approach.

 

[OVERKILL]

Hmm, interesting this old video wasn’t posted back in the day



Main takeaway Texas grid is undersized and cannot provide peak heating power required in cold weather even when all sources are up and running

At least according to ERCOT, even if all power sources were online the grid would have still failed by design for most Texans due to being undersized.

I couldn't stand the guy, but I watched the first bit of the video and he touches on the same point I made in this thread, which was that wind capacity was not expected to show up in significant capacity in the first place:

The significance of which a couple of people really struggled with.

 

[Malo83]

Has somebody departed for Cancun yet.

 

[SubLGT]

More Texas power shortages.

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/weather-news/article261433532.html

[May 13, 2022] With high temperatures throughout the weekend creating a high demand for energy, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas is asking Texans to conserve power. ERCOT said six power plants went offline on Friday afternoon and resulted in the loss of about 2,900 megawatts of electricity. “With unseasonably hot weather driving record demand across Texas, ERCOT continues to work closely with the power industry to make sure Texans have the power they need,” ERCOT said in a news release on May 13.

They’re asking Texans to set their thermostats to 78 degrees or above and avoid the usage of large appliances such as dishwashers, washers and dryers during peak hours between 3 p.m. and 8 p.m. through the weekend. Demand is currently at 64,000 megawatts, according to ERCOT data, and the dashboard on its website says “there is enough power for current demand.” As of 4 p.m. on Friday, 66% of thermal resources were running, along with 73% of solar and 17% of wind.

Temperatures are forecast at 95 degrees Saturday and 98 degrees Sunday, according to the National Weather Service in Fort Worth. They’re expected to remain in the 90s to 100s through next week.

 

[OVERKILL]

More Texas power shortages.

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/weather-news/article261433532.html

Ehhh, wind folded when it got hot, that's pretty much par for the course.

Looks like they have about 5GW of reserve capacity at the moment:

Wind is at 5,757MW of 35,736MW of installed/synchronized capacity; 16% CF.