This "EV Thing" isn't going away.....

[Rmay635703]

Do you have the data for that?

Someone did flow lines for used cars once.
Very interesting that many regions of the country are always net exporters of used cars and some always net importers.

The ratio of used to new can get pretty pathetic looking in places like Wisconsin.

Many EVs of a particular age in Wisconsin for example are from either Georgia or Illinois.

The trend tends to align with EV taxes such that areas that introduce a high tax tend to have the used EV market collapse. (New EV sales usually aren’t affected)

Wisconsin has only recently (1.5 years ago) reversed a llllooonggg trend of near zero plug in sales directly following the plug in tax.

Our registrations were basically stagnated at 3XXX EV registrations for a decade, only in last year has that number jumped to above 6000.

This jump in registrations mostly coincided with our state importing remote workers so I’m guessing it won’t last.

 

[ecotourist]

Yes of course no one cares now. They will when they go to trade in or sell their clapped out EV that needs a new battery. Residual will be horrific.

An article in today's paper says that Tesla Taxis from Montreal that have gone 500,000 km (312,000 miles) and that have been supercharged several times a day (which is said to be hard on the battery) have only lost 10 - 12% of their original capacity. That would still be a very useful vehicle.

How long do you expect vehicles to last? Aren't most cars with 300,000 plus miles fairly depreciated?

Some of the early Leafs haven't done nearly as well - so don't buy an early Leaf.

 

[IndyIan]

Yes of course no one cares now. They will when they go to trade in or sell their clapped out EV that needs a new battery. Residual will be horrific.

Perhaps, right now all the old short range electric vehicles like the Leaf are still $10-15k here... and the 2012-13 Model S's are still all in the 30's and 40's but they have free super charging.
It is still early days for electric cars, after market packs are coming, and degraded battery packs are already disassembled and being reused for stationary deep cycle.
I think the next step for electric vehicles is, to qualify for incentives or carbon credits, they have to incorporate a battery reuse and recycling plan.

 

[CKN]

As the charging and range issues become solved-the (rational) arguments against EVs will pretty much be mute. As I mentioned before-when over a trillion dollars is being spent the hand writing is on the wall.
https://carbuzz.com/news/automakers-will-double-ev-spending-to-1-2-trillion-by-2030

 

[edyvw]

As the charging and range issues become solved-the (rational) arguments against EVs will pretty much be mute. As I mentioned before-when over a trillion dollars is being spent the hand writing is on the wall.
https://carbuzz.com/news/automakers-will-double-ev-spending-to-1-2-trillion-by-2030

They will resolve.
But that has to come to the point where convenience of ICE is. Road trip? 5-10 min charge for minimum 400mls drive.

 

[OVERKILL]

An article in today's paper says that Tesla Taxis from Montreal that have gone 500,000 km (312,000 miles) and that have been supercharged several times a day (which is said to be hard on the battery) have only lost 10 - 12% of their original capacity. That would still be a very useful vehicle.

How long do you expect vehicles to last? Aren't most cars with 300,000 plus miles fairly depreciated?

Some of the early Leafs haven't done nearly as well - so don't buy an early Leaf.

Tesla BMS, thermal controls and battery selection is a lot better than some companies (*ahem, Nissan*). I'm quite skeptical that pouch cells will see the same level of durability, and results we've seen from some of the hybrids tends to support that skepticism.

 

[CKN]

They will resolve.
But that has to come to the point where convenience of ICE is. Road trip? 5-10 min charge for minimum 400mls drive.

That's where the thinking differs. MOST EV owners charge to the next (charging) station-not to a full tank.

 

[ecotourist]

They will resolve.
But that has to come to the point where convenience of ICE is. Road trip? 5-10 min charge for minimum 400mls drive.

Sure and I would like my next ICE to be able to fuel up overnight in my garage, after negligible capital costs, safely and with no effort on my part and at half the cost of corner stations. Not going to happen? We both know that, but you can have exactly that with an EV right now.

Long distance EV drives use a completely different strategy from an ICE vehicle. You start off every day with a big charge (90 or even 100%) but after that only charge enough to get from one charging station to the next (with as much spare charge as makes you comfortable - we aim for 15%). So 5, 10 and 15 minute charges get you down the road just fine. It works but it's different.

An EV has it all over an ICE for local use and moderate commutes. An ICE has the advantage over an EV for long distance driving. Many families have several vehicles. Why not choose vehicles that are optimum for the intended purpose?

And has anyone mentioned how much fun it is driving an EV (a Tesla especially). You should just try it!

 

[edyvw]

That's where the thinking differs. MOST EV owners charge to the next (charging) station-not to a full tank.

Absolutely irrelevant. For EV to be mainstream they have to make it as convenient as ICE. You don’t tell people what and how they will travel.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Absolutely irrelevant. For EV to be mainstream they have to make it as convenient as ICE. You don’t tell people what and how they will travel.

Edy, that's an ICE point of view. Kinda one sided, if you think about it. Even short sided if you consider what it takes to gas up.

I find going to gas stations a pain. And the price of gas? Horrid. To get a "decent" price I have to drive 10+ miles each way to Costco and go real early or wait in line. That's easily a 40 minute fill up with wasted mileage to boot. There is no such thing as a 5 minute fill up if you include travel time, wait time and wasted mileage.
Right now if I only had the Tesla, I be fine. I prefer to fly when I go any real distance.

People who regularly drive 400 miles each way; well that's another story. But it's the exception rather than the rule. Most people average 25 miles per day; certainly less than 100.
15,000 miles / 365 days = 42 miles per day.
15,000 / 260 = 58 miles per day. 260 is a 5 day work week.

EVs are not for everyone. Even if it makes sense for someone say, like you, it's your money and you get to drive what you like. Maybe Elon will code a 6 cylinder stick app for his iPhone cars?

 

[edyvw]

Edy, that's an ICE point of view. Kinda one sided, if you think about it. Even short sided if you consider what it takes to gas up.

I find going to gas stations a pain. And the price of gas? Horrid. To get a "decent" price I have to drive 10+ miles each way to Costco and go real early or wait in line. That's easily a 40 minute fill up with wasted mileage to boot. There is no such thing as a 5 minute fill up if you include travel time, wait time and wasted mileage.
Right now if I only had the Tesla, I be fine. I prefer to fly when I go any real distance.

People who regularly drive 400 miles each way; well that's another story. But it's the exception rather than the rule. Most people average 25 miles per day; certainly less than 100.
15,000 miles / 365 days = 42 miles per day.
15,000 / 260 = 58 miles per day. 260 is a 5 day work week.

EVs are not for everyone. Even if it makes sense for someone say, like you, it's your money and you get to drive what you like. Maybe Elon will code a 6 cylinder stick app for his iPhone cars?

That is elitist argument.
You cannot expect from average people, working regular jobs to think like you are, or I do, people who have very flexible jobs, time on hand etc.
They do not have time for that. When they get little vacation, they get and want to do a road trip to let's say, Yellowstone, they will not sit and calculate where to stop. They go, and stop to fill up.
I am talking this strictly from a scenario if EV are going to replace ICE. Not an option, but as ONLY available option.
And no you won't be fine with Tesla. My friend moved from LA to Denver in Honda Pilot and Tesla Model 3. It took his wife 18hrs in Pilot, and him, 3 days.

Elon wont code anything. I am currently watching that mental breakdown he is having and his absolute incompetence.

 

[demarpaint]

Absolutely irrelevant. For EV to be mainstream they have to make it as convenient as ICE. You don’t tell people what and how they will travel.

Amen!

 

[CKN]

Absolutely irrelevant. For EV to be mainstream they have to make it as convenient as ICE. You don’t tell people what and how they will travel.

Hm....Tesla drivers are already doing this....filling to the next charger.

 

[CKN]

That is elitist argument.
You cannot expect from average people, working regular jobs to think like you are, or I do, people who have very flexible jobs, time on hand etc.
They do not have time for that. When they get little vacation, they get and want to do a road trip to let's say, Yellowstone, they will not sit and calculate where to stop. They go, and stop to fill up.
I am talking this strictly from a scenario if EV are going to replace ICE. Not an option, but as ONLY available option.
And no you won't be fine with Tesla. My friend moved from LA to Denver in Honda Pilot and Tesla Model 3. It took his wife 18hrs in Pilot, and him, 3 days.

Elon wont code anything. I am currently watching that mental breakdown he is having and his absolute incompetence.

You dont calculate- the car does it for you. It routes you to the next charger. It's idiot proof so most should be able to figure it out.The kicking and screaming on here is predictable.

 

[edyvw]

You dont calculate- the car does it for you. It routes you to the next charger. It's idiot proof so most should be able to figure it out.The kicking and screaming on here is predictable.

Ah Ok, so it will make to Las Vegas in the same time as my BMW bcs. it calculates for me?
I know it calculates for you. People do not want to do that, period. They might want to do that if EV is second or third car. NOT, if EV is only option.

 

[JeffKeryk]

That is elitist argument.
You cannot expect from average people, working regular jobs to think like you are, or I do, people who have very flexible jobs, time on hand etc.
They do not have time for that. When they get little vacation, they get and want to do a road trip to let's say, Yellowstone, they will not sit and calculate where to stop. They go, and stop to fill up.
I am talking this strictly from a scenario if EV are going to replace ICE. Not an option, but as ONLY available option.
And no you won't be fine with Tesla. My friend moved from LA to Denver in Honda Pilot and Tesla Model 3. It took his wife 18hrs in Pilot, and him, 3 days.

Elon wont code anything. I am currently watching that mental breakdown he is having and his absolute incompetence.

How is that elitist? You talked about convenience. I showed you an everyday scenario that makes Tesla charging far more convenient than ICE fill up.
And this scenario is pretty common; it is an real life scenario. The number of people who drive anywhere near 100 miles per day is statistically tiny.

The LA to Denver time of 3 days makes little sense. What was he doing for 3 days vs his wife?
3 days vs 18 hours? Did she drive 18 hours straight and he drove 350 miles per day?
Regardless, it certainly wasn't the vehicle's differencees. Go Anywhere.

Please, no offense meant, but your numbers are missing a lot of information.

 

[edyvw]

How is that elitist? You talked about convenience. I showed you an everyday scenario that makes Tesla charging far more convenient than ICE fill up.
And this scenario is pretty common; it is an real life scenario. The number of people who drive anywhere near 100 miles per day is statistically tiny.

The LA to Denver time of 3 days makes little sense. What was he doing for 3 days vs his wife?
3 days vs 18 hours? Did she drive 18 hours straight and he drove 350 miles per day?
Regardless, it certainly wasn't the vehicle's differencees. Go Anywhere.

Please, no offense meant, but your numbers are missing a lot of information.

No they are not. He had to charge it numerous times. That is it. She just kept going, refilled as much as she had to.
You do not like numbers. That is the problem.
I am not sure when was the last time you were on the road, but I would not call that tiny %. People do not only go on road trips. Take into consideration Colorado. Daily skiing. Dropping off kids to school, ski, going back.
I am strictly talking if EV becoms the ONLY option. That is why PHEV is so attractive to people.

 

[JeffKeryk]

No they are not. He had to charge it numerous times. That is it. She just kept going, refilled as much as she had to.
You do not like numbers. That is the problem.
I am not sure when was the last time you were on the road, but I would not call that tiny %. People do not only go on road trips. Take into consideration Colorado. Daily skiing. Dropping off kids to school, ski, going back.
I am strictly talking if EV becoms the ONLY option. That is why PHEV is so attractive to people.

Actually, I do like numbers. Analytics is my game. Numbers by themselves tell nothing; in fact they can be very misleading. What makes up those numbers is what is important.
I showed you the fallacy of your numbers. Your scenario is full of holes or at least unsupported numbers.

As an aside, I wonder how the Pilot does vs the Tesla in your friend's everyday use? In town, in traffic, stop and go driving greatly favors the Tesla, so there's that.

Finally, I showed you a realistic, real world scenario with distance and times. I love numbers!

 

[edyvw]

Actually, I do like numbers. Analytics is my game. Numbers by themselves tell nothing; in fact they can be very misleading. What makes up those numbers is what is important.
I showed you the fallacy of your numbers. Your scenario is full of holes or at least unsupported numbers.

I showed you a realistic, real world scenario with distance and times.

I told you what happened. You do not like it bcs. it involves Tesla.
You cannot compare two trips involving the same driver and vehicle, let alone different drivers, cars, routes etc.
Take into consideration this was moving. The vehicle loaded to the top. He had front seat with stuff on it. So weight is a big deal. Going from LA to Denver is not the most economical route. I did it numerous times. There is a huge elevation change throughout the route. You can do that easily with ICE, but obviously not that easy with EV.
Now, imagine that scenario in a minivan with 1yrs and 3yrs old. Not something that most people would subscribe to.

Also, that calculated route you posted. On this planet, no, it won't happen, at least for now. 19hrs of actual driving is possible with ICE.

 

[Rmay635703]

I am strictly talking if EV becoms the ONLY option. That is why PHEV is so attractive to people.

Soon such issues won’t exist , this one goes further than most gassers

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...a-solar-ev-will-get-italian-carbon-fiber-body