The South remains the largest gainer in migration.

[alarmguy]

Last night I had a driver in Manila, who has an independent business with a Toyota van. The van cost him 2,300,000 peso (PSP). Converted to USD about $40,300 USD.

How did this man get to purchase his van? Nine years in Saudi Arabia driving a 70 foot, 70 ton truck. Other than one vacation in nine years, he worked seven days a week. The driver stated he slept in the truck for nine years, all with the goal of saving $40k USD. He saw his wife and daughter once in nine years. I asked him what the hardest part of nine years in Saudi was--- he stated the Saudi drivers have no care or concept of others on the road, especially a foreign national truck driver (all the truck drivers are foreign nationals).

We have no concept how well off all of us are in the United States, when compared to the rest of the world. Even the lowest earners in the U.S. have an unbelievable opportunity if they chose to sacrifice like the driver did for nine years. Imagine a minimum wage earner, in the U.S. working seven days a week, two jobs, for nine years, while living as a minimalist. They would have a very nice savings account after nine years, much more than what this driver saved working in Saudi.

Well said ...
Yeah, you know I agree 100%

Ps I love the Philippines and the people. Would love to go more often. The trip is brutal, wife has family there. 3 planes to get there, 24 hours from where we live on the East Coast. One of those flights was 18 hours non stop. BGC was an amazing experience along with EL NINO
Walking the city at night I felt more secure then anyplace. Security is amazing and even the police, will stop cars for you just to be nice and cross the street. They say hello to you too!
View from our Air BNB main BR last Nov.

 

[Dave Hess]

Absolutely non of your lecture has anything to do with the relative wealth of generations and how that may or may not affect migration amongst states going forward.

I posted a link to a well respected research firm. Feel free to believe your cocktail party research if it suits you.

You have no clue of my background. You lecturing me on hard work is rich.

Lots of younger adults have given up hope on the American Dream and having what their parents had by their late 20’s to early 30’s.

Crazy inflation destroyed housing, thanks to trillions and trillions of Covid cash pumped into economy.
Stagnant wages and lots of crap jobs with zero growth or security.

———————————————————

I posted before my dad supported a family of 6 on one paycheck and was an A&P mechanic (union) for Pan Am airline. We were fortunate to have union benefits, with great health and dental. My mom was a stay at home mother and raised 4 kids WITHOUT any financial stress. This was in the late 60’s to early 80’s.

New 3-2-2 ranch house that was $33K in 1971 and 2 paid off cars (dad always paid cash) for entry level basic cars, example 1976 Chevy Nova sedan. I looked on Zillow and that house is now worth $670K.

^^^^^
I mentioned this to younger adults recently and they looked at me as if I was crazy and making this up.

My dad retired when Pan Am declared bankruptcy in 1991 and that was the end of his time in the workforce.

I think you mentioned having 2 adult daughters. Do you help them ?

Imagine the same A&P mechanic in the USA 2025 trying to support a family of 6 on one paycheck and paying a mortgage, taxes, insurances, food, utilities, saving for retirement / emergency savings, … etc… while trying to keep roof over their heads.

I have 3 retirements at my non union job:
Pension
Voluntary pension
401K

^^^^
Things like this will never be seen by today’s folks starting their careers. When I mention 3 retirement plans at my job these younger folks think I’m kidding around.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Lots of younger adults have given up hope on the American Dream and having what their parents had by their late 20’s to early 30’s.

Crazy inflation destroyed housing, thanks to trillions and trillions of Covid cash pumped into economy.
Stagnant wages and lots of crap jobs with zero growth or security.

———————————————————

I posted before my dad supported a family of 6 on one paycheck and was an A&P mechanic (union) for Pan Am airline. We were fortunate to have union benefits, with great health and dental. My mom was a stay at home mother and raised 4 kids WITHOUT any financial stress. This was in the late 60’s to early 80’s.

New 3-2-2 ranch house that was $33K in 1971 and 2 paid off cars (dad always paid cash) for entry level basic cars, example 1976 Chevy Nova sedan. I looked on Zillow and that house is now worth $670K.

^^^^^
I mentioned this to younger adults recently and they looked at me as if I was crazy and making this up.

My dad retired when Pan Am declared bankruptcy in 1991 and that was the end of his time in the workforce.

I think you mentioned having 2 adult daughters. Do you help them ?

Imagine the same A&P mechanic in the USA 2025 trying to support a family of 6 on one paycheck and paying a mortgage, taxes, insurances, food, utilities, saving for retirement / emergency savings, … etc… while trying to keep roof over their heads.

I have 3 retirements at my non union job:
Pension
Voluntary pension
401K

^^^^
Things like this will never be seen by today’s folks starting their careers. When I mention 3 retirement plans at my job these younger folks think I’m kidding around.

I have two adult daughters. I am paying for them to be educated. I would do anything for them. They will have no problem getting a down payment for a home or they can just wait and inherit mine - I will eventually buy a second one. I figure no education debt and housing pretty much sets them up.

I just hope they realize how good they have it.

 

[alarmguy]

Lots of younger adults have given up hope on the American Dream and having what their parents had by their late 20’s to early 30’s.

Crazy inflation destroyed housing, thanks to trillions and trillions of Covid cash pumped into economy.
Stagnant wages and lots of crap jobs with zero growth or security.

———————————————————

I posted before my dad supported a family of 6 on one paycheck and was an A&P mechanic (union) for Pan Am airline. We were fortunate to have union benefits, with great health and dental. My mom was a stay at home mother and raised 4 kids WITHOUT any financial stress. This was in the late 60’s to early 80’s.

New 3-2-2 ranch house that was $33K in 1971 and 2 paid off cars (dad always paid cash) for entry level basic cars, example 1976 Chevy Nova sedan. I looked on Zillow and that house is now worth $670K.

^^^^^
I mentioned this to younger adults recently and they looked at me as if I was crazy and making this up.

My dad retired when Pan Am declared bankruptcy in 1991 and that was the end of his time in the workforce.

I think you mentioned having 2 adult daughters. Do you help them ?

Imagine the same A&P mechanic in the USA 2025 trying to support a family of 6 on one paycheck and paying a mortgage, taxes, insurances, food, utilities, saving for retirement / emergency savings, … etc… while trying to keep roof over their heads.

I have 3 retirements at my non union job:
Pension
Voluntary pension
401K

^^^^
Things like this will never be seen by today’s folks starting their careers. When I mention 3 retirement plans at my job these younger folks think I’m kidding around.

My son works for BMW now at around the eight year mark.
Got , purchased his first 3-2-2 ranch home after he got married. A year later first grandchild born, his wife became a stay at home mom, three years later second grandchild, born, still stay at home mom.

Just sold his house, renting back for a couple months while his brand new five bedroom home is being completed in a residential community with an amenity center.

They did this all on their own. Still stay at home, mom

I’m so tired of hearing excuses. Anybody can make it in this country if they want to work. If you cant make it where you are then move to a place where you can.

One thing for sure, my son even from their first house is living a lot better than my parents ever did when they purchased their first house in the 1950s
He drives BMWs, his wife has a BMW, they live in an air-conditioned house, they go on cruises and even international trips for vacations.

My parents did well for themselves, but those things didn’t happen for them for about 20 years after they built their first house.

Anyone can get a job in this country and support a family. They just have to get off their butt and move to a state where they can work. There’s plenty of jobs in the automotive industry aircraft industry where they’re practically begging for help just as an example.

Life is what you make of it! All the tools are there for anybody in this country, much much more so than the so-called old days

Giving up on living the American dream is for slackers or those lacking drive from being pampered.

 

[Dave Hess]

I have two adult daughters. I am paying for them to be educated. I would do anything for them. They will have no problem getting a down payment for a home or they can just wait and inherit mine - I will eventually buy a second one. I figure no education debt and housing pretty much sets them up.

I just hope they realize how good they have it.

No education debt greatly puts them ahead financially in life.

I was talking to a nurse and she told me she’s got $70,000 of student loans. Lucky she has a decent paying job and not working at Starbucks with trash degree.

I mentioned before we helped with 3 house down payments (4th next year) for our kids because the military and tuition reimbursement paid for their college educations. So we decided to help them with buying 3-2-2 houses in nice area since not one penny was spent towards their college.

 

[JHZR2]

Gen X here. I'm not so sure because a lot of that wealth is going to end up paying for end of life care for parents and the parents are also spending like mad. For example, imagine paying $12k/mo at an assisted living center with 24 hr staff.

Sure some wealth will transfer but on an inflation adjusted basis I don't think it's going to be as much.

Agree. I see the medical industrial complex eroding a lot of folks’ wealth over the next few years. Meanwhile it will be wacky, with doctors and administrators lining their pockets, and the folks offering the actual services for the most part not doing as well. That will be an interesting one to watch.

 

[doitmyself]

Anyone can get a job in this country and support a family. They just have to get off their butt and move to a state where they can work. There’s plenty of jobs in the automotive industry aircraft industry where they’re practically begging for help just as an example.

Life is what you make of it! All the tools are there for anybody in this country, much much more so than the so-called old days

Giving up on living the American dream is for slackers or those lacking drive from being pampered.

With risk of starting an argument regarding views, don't you think that some of us have more/better/easier opportunities than others?

Yes the U.S. is the land of opportunity, no doubt. But I think of bad parents raising children that never learn basic quality life skills. Those kids are never exposed to integrity, character, work ethic, goals, self sufficiency, fiscal integrity. While our path of opportunity might be foothills and small mountains, their path is Mount Everest. A social dilemma generations in the making.

Yes, lots of opportunity, but I don't think we all have equal opportunity. Nomex wildland firefighter suit donned for potential flaming.

 

[alarmguy]

With risk of starting an argument regarding views, don't you think that some of us have more/better/easier opportunities than others?

Yes the U.S. is the land of opportunity, no doubt. But I think of bad parents raising children that never learn basic quality life skills. Those kids are never exposed to integrity, character, work ethic, goals, self sufficiency, fiscal integrity. While our path of opportunity might be foothills and small mountains, their path is Mount Everest. A social dilemma generations in the making.

Yes, lots of opportunity, but I don't think we all have equal opportunity. Nomex wildland firefighter suit donned for potential flaming.

Agree (believe it or not )
But this is the animal kingdom and has always been this way, actually far worse. We are free individuals and some of those disadvantaged children of "bad parents" have more resources and help then ever in mankind history if and only if they are able to break away from that bondage. Meaning, there will always be those cases but with some luck, some are able to seek out resources to help them that were never available before.

Sadly, those unable to break away, will be part of the "survival of the fittest" failures. Nothing can be done about it, except those who wish to donate their time and possibly fortunes to do so.

 

[alarmguy]

Agree. I see the medical industrial complex eroding a lot of folks’ wealth over the next few years. Meanwhile it will be wacky, with doctors and administrators lining their pockets, and the folks offering the actual services for the most part not doing as well. That will be an interesting one to watch.

I cant agree, bothers me about doctors lining their pockets. I hate the stereotype because it's boloney. It goes back to my work hard ethic = rewards. If all doctors did was line their pockets, why doesnt everyone here do the same and line their pockets? Easy right? GO to medical school and line your pockets. So they should just do it, oh wait, ummmm ... hold on there, not so easy.

Young family member in our family circle.
She became a doctor. That involves giving up your youth after age 18 and life as you know it, going through 4 years of intense college, 4 years of intense medical school, 4 years of internship where "they" decide to place you and you work INSANE hours, many times sleeping at the hospital for a break instead of going home and returning hours later. Missed holidays, family gatherings ....

Your life for those 12 years are constant education and insane work hours once you get through school. Something that most have no clue the sacrifices that are made. But anyone can do it and line their pockets, so why dont they?

Once all through that 100's of thousands of loans to pay back. Not only that to further her career an additional fellowship after this.

She has a passion for what she does, but when asked would she do it all over again, she isnt sure if it was worth it. So yes, she earned a living that may pay maybe $300,000 a year as she now settles down, get those loans paid back. But the mystery is, why doesnt everyone do it then?
If you ask me, it's a fine line of giving up all those years and being properly compensated for it. But for all those who wish to do it, it's there for the taking. So they should just do it.

Brings us back to life in the USA, with hard work, you can do or be anything you want. But do to so, you have to be the best, most studious person of your peers to be accepted and hopefully some scholarships to help out. You have to have a work effort and determination to be better then the other person, no matter what field. Being a doctor just proves you cant be a slacker or you wont make it in medicine in the USA.

(just discussing here)

Ps. just finished up 6 months of cancer treatment, another maybe 90 days of recovery from the treatment. Thank god I live in the USA. Havent added up the costs yet, couple hundred thousand maybe? My cost under medicare> Less than $2000 and that included radiation and a daily pill for 6 months which cost for just the pill alone was $14,800.00
One pill a day at a cost of $81 for each pill.
In many other countries, you just die. Yet I was allow to take the most recent, newest prostate cancer drug at almost no cost to me. I never looked at my 6 or so doctors as lining their pockets, compassionate in what they do and gave up much their youth to help others. Trust me, when one is looking at their life possibly passing by, one will be grateful for all they gave up to become a doctor.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Agree. I see the medical industrial complex eroding a lot of folks’ wealth over the next few years. Meanwhile it will be wacky, with doctors and administrators lining their pockets, and the folks offering the actual services for the most part not doing as well. That will be an interesting one to watch.

My mother's generation in my home town are moving into these active senior living centers. They contribute a couple hundred thousand dollars up front for the unit they want and then have a monthly fee thereafter. This covers them from when they walk in to when they roll out assuming they can continue to pay which the facilities appear to do a good job and qualifying. When it time for an assisted living center you move out of your unit and you have 24/7 care. It's literally Hotel California. It is what it is.

 

[Pew]

Gen X here. I'm not so sure because a lot of that wealth is going to end up paying for end of life care for parents and the parents are also spending like mad. For example, imagine paying $12k/mo at an assisted living center with 24 hr staff.

Indeed, my sister's BF works for UHC and his department sole job is to find current clients that they can drop; and they just dropped whole boatloads of elders.

Yes the U.S. is the land of opportunity, no doubt. But I think of bad parents raising children that never learn basic quality life skills. Those kids are never exposed to integrity, character, work ethic, goals, self sufficiency, fiscal integrity. While our path of opportunity might be foothills and small mountains, their path is Mount Everest. A social dilemma generations in the making.

This is very true. Some folks are lucky to have never experienced or seen this type of destitution in our country. It takes a village to raise a child.

 

[alarmguy]

Indeed, my sister's BF works for UHC and his department sole job is to find current clients that they can drop; and they just dropped whole boatloads of elders.

\

It's important to note, under medicare it is impossible to single out any people and drop them. The only way to drop them is to eliminate an entire plan/ If they do, medicare allows them guaranteed acceptance in ANY other plan from any company, including the company that dropped them and also allows them back into Medicare A, B and D plans with no underwriting.

So I suspect you are talking pre medicare insured because it's impossible to drop an individual from a medicare plan.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

I cant agree, bothers me about doctors lining their pockets. I hate the stereotype because it's boloney. It goes back to my work hard ethic = rewards. If all doctors did was line their pockets, why doesnt everyone here do the same and line their pockets? Easy right? GO to medical school and line your pockets. So they should just do it, oh wait, ummmm ... hold on there, not so easy.

Young family member in our family circle.
She became a doctor. That involves giving up your youth after age 18 and life as you know it, going through 4 years of intense college, 4 years of intense medical school, 4 years of internship where "they" decide to place you and you work INSANE hours, many times sleeping at the hospital for a break instead of going home and returning hours later. Missed holidays, family gatherings ....

Your life for those 12 years are constant education and insane work hours once you get through school. Something that most have no clue the sacrifices that are made. But anyone can do it and line their pockets, so why dont they?

Once all through that 100's of thousands of loans to pay back. Not only that to further her career an additional fellowship after this.

She has a passion for what she does, but when asked would she do it all over again, she isnt sure if it was worth it. So yes, she earned a living that may pay maybe $300,000 a year as she now settles down, get those loans paid back. But the mystery is, why doesnt everyone do it then?
If you ask me, it's a fine line of giving up all those years and being properly compensated for it. But for all those who wish to do it, it's there for the taking. So they should just do it.

Brings us back to life in the USA, with hard work, you can do or be anything you want. But do to so, you have to be the best, most studious person of your peers to be accepted and hopefully some scholarships to help out. You have to have a work effort and determination to be better then the other person, no matter what field. Being a doctor just proves you cant be a slacker or you wont make it in medicine in the USA.

(just discussing here)

Ps. just finished up 6 months of cancer treatment, another maybe 90 days of recovery from the treatment. Thank god I live in the USA. Havent added up the costs yet, couple hundred thousand maybe? My cost under medicare> Less than $2000 and that included radiation and a daily pill for 6 months which cost for just the pill alone was $14,800.00
One pill a day at a cost of $81 for each pill.
In many other countries, you just die. Yet I was allow to take the most recent, newest prostate cancer drug at almost no cost to me. I never looked at my 6 or so doctors as lining their pockets, compassionate in what they do and gave up much their youth to help others. Trust me, when one is looking at their life possibly passing by, one will be grateful for all they gave up to become a doctor.

I don't think you're aware of how uniquely gifted you and your kids really are. "Working hard" doesn't get it done otherwise businesses wouldn't fail at the rate which they do. Successful people have certain intangibles. They're born with them and it takes hard work to recognize them and put them to use but hard work alone won't get it done.

 

[alarmguy]

Gen X here. I'm not so sure because a lot of that wealth is going to end up paying for end of life care for parents and the parents are also spending like mad. For example, imagine paying $12k/mo at an assisted living center with 24 hr staff.

Sure some wealth will transfer but on an inflation adjusted basis I don't think it's going to be as much.

Only if the family elects too. It's speculation they will live that long but they can also be taken in by a family member. MY parents and that of my wife, never needed end of life care.

I do agree though no guarantees but it will still be the highest in history. Not that the kids are owed anything. But they can step up to the plate like they do in many countries overseas and take their parents in if they want to. Im sure they may want to be treated the same by their children one day. Kind of like what comes around goes around. Is the example they set.

 

[JHZR2]

I cant agree, bothers me about doctors lining their pockets. I hate the stereotype because it's boloney. It goes back to my work hard ethic = rewards. If all doctors did was line their pockets, why doesnt everyone here do the same and line their pockets? Easy right? GO to medical school and line your pockets. So they should just do it, oh wait, ummmm ... hold on there, not so easy.

Young family member in our family circle.
She became a doctor. That involves giving up your youth after age 18 and life as you know it, going through 4 years of intense college, 4 years of intense medical school, 4 years of internship where "they" decide to place you and you work INSANE hours, many times sleeping at the hospital for a break instead of going home and returning hours later. Missed holidays, family gatherings ....

Your life for those 12 years are constant education and insane work hours once you get through school. Something that most have no clue the sacrifices that are made. But anyone can do it and line their pockets, so why dont they?

Once all through that 100's of thousands of loans to pay back. Not only that to further her career an additional fellowship after this.

She has a passion for what she does, but when asked would she do it all over again, she isnt sure if it was worth it. So yes, she earned a living that may pay maybe $300,000 a year as she now settles down, get those loans paid back. But the mystery is, why doesnt everyone do it then?
If you ask me, it's a fine line of giving up all those years and being properly compensated for it. But for all those who wish to do it, it's there for the taking. So they should just do it.

Brings us back to life in the USA, with hard work, you can do or be anything you want. But do to so, you have to be the best, most studious person of your peers to be accepted and hopefully some scholarships to help out. You have to have a work effort and determination to be better then the other person, no matter what field. Being a doctor just proves you cant be a slacker or you wont make it in medicine in the USA.

(just discussing here)

Ps. just finished up 6 months of cancer treatment, another maybe 90 days of recovery from the treatment. Thank god I live in the USA. Havent added up the costs yet, couple hundred thousand maybe? My cost under medicare> Less than $2000 and that included radiation and a daily pill for 6 months which cost for just the pill alone was $14,800.00
One pill a day at a cost of $81 for each pill.
In many other countries, you just die. Yet I was allow to take the most recent, newest prostate cancer drug at almost no cost to me. I never looked at my 6 or so doctors as lining their pockets, compassionate in what they do and gave up much their youth to help others. Trust me, when one is looking at their life possibly passing by, one will be grateful for all they gave up to become a doctor.

Interesting.

So no other professions require time, money, sacrifice, and hard academic work?!?

Funny that you’re talking to someone with a terminal degree in an advanced technical field, married to someone with a doctorate in a medical field that isn’t allowed to have quite as much of a racket (though still very much so)… so who doesn’t understand the hard work? I’m not here to measure phallus on what is harder or easier. And don’t throw our stupid null responses like other folks could have gone into the field. Not everyone wants to. And that’s fine. Lots of professions have folks lives and outcomes in their hands…. Not everyone wishes to do medicine. Some folks do substantially better than folks in medicine, so…???

And, you made my point - hundreds of thousands of dollars with nil out of pocket from you. Paid for by whom? And who reaps the outcomes? Charged at what rates of pay for how much time spent? I absolutely appreciate and see the need of a “for reward” system that pushes innovation and investment. That doesn’t change the fact that the system sucks. One of many. We can gripe about auto dealerships, or mechanics, or tradespeople, or any other billable good or service, but we can’t question medicine?

But note the point I made, the medical industrial complex. Administration… while the folks providing the services are treated like trash. I see the lives many of my inlaws in multiple medical fields live. Some of it is good, some of it treats them like crap. Nurses, doctors, and therapists included.

So I’m glad that you got huge services, and a good outcome. And I’m not disparaging anybody’s training or performance or the benefit to society. But I have no doubt that the system wastes in many ways.

This is old - from The Institute of Medicine via the Atlantic, back in 2012. Do you think it’s gotten better or worse? Who is at fault for what was $750B/yr back then?

I don’t see it improved. I do see the amounts charged for minimal times provided for services rendered. I use an HDHP - I probably see the costs of care closer than most. That said, more people desperately needing services as they age, which was my premise… Will it get better or worse? I suspect many see it as a huge profit center. And charge accordingly. For primary care and for other services. We were talking about wealth transfer from older generations. These generations will be consuming LESS of everything besides healthcare and medicine. This why it’s brought up here. It is a mechanism of wealth transfer.

 

[JHZR2]

My mother's generation in my home town are moving into these active senior living centers. They contribute a couple hundred thousand dollars up front for the unit they want and then have a monthly fee thereafter. This covers them from when they walk in to when they roll out assuming they can continue to pay which the facilities appear to do a good job and qualifying. When it time for an assisted living center you move out of your unit and you have 24/7 care. It's literally Hotel California. It is what it is.

Yes, and some of these places are done out of the goodness of folks hearts, and surely some will be profit centers. And I’m NOT even saying that profiting on the services rendered is a bad thing. There needs to be a driver. But again, my premise is that these industries, and especially the providers where education and numbers are rationed, will facilitate a large wealth transfer from ageing people. That can be looked at as an objective statement, without any emotion for the service type rendered or people performing.

 

[BMWTurboDzl]

Yes, and some of these places are done out of the goodness of folks hearts, and surely some will be profit centers. And I’m NOT even saying that profiting on the services rendered is a bad thing. There needs to be a driver. But again, my premise is that these industries, and especially the providers where education and numbers are rationed, will facilitate a large wealth transfer from ageing people. That can be looked at as an objective statement, without any emotion for the service type rendered or people performing.

Agree and this is where I envision a lot of the boomer wealth being consumed. My mother said she wants to pass away having spent essentially everything and my sister is concerned that our mother is underestimating how many years she has remaining.

 

[pbm]

Just to make sure I understand, these figures would be the net result of:

- births,

- deaths,

- interstate migration,

- immigration from other countries, and

emigration to other countries.

Am I understanding correctly?

Don't forget high taxes and high crime.

 

[Pew]

Don't forget high taxes and high crime.

The South leads in violent crime per capita compared to any other region and decimates any other region in murders. The NE region is the lowest. I do not think that's it.

 

[pbm]

The South leads in violent crime per capita compared to any other region and decimates any other region in murders. The NE region is the lowest. I do not think that's it.

Does the 'South' have a revolving door justice system like New York?