I'd like to see the reliability data. I have read the Subaru CVT is $8,000 to replace. When something goes wrong, the entire unit is replaced.
I agree it would be nice to see some long-term data on it, but Subaru's transmission is pretty new. That said, I don't think it's a given that the cost of ownership of the CVT is going to be higher than the MT. Every Subaru owner I know has replaced a clutch before 100K, including 2 drivers who got over 200K out of a Honda clutch. And at least around here, it's an expensive job, about $1,200.00.
Plus, people tend to maximize to the extreme the cost of a replacement CVT. You can find one almost new/salvage for $1,200 or so. Yes, a brand new from the factory transmission is probably a lot of money, but so is a brand new manual, and there's no guarantee that's not going to fail, either.
If I were buying a Subaru, I think the CVT would probably make more sense, just because of the clutch life/cost.