Should i sell my truck? (Get a "real" truck later)

I got a kbb instant cash offer on my truck after this thread and it’s $3500 more than I paid for it over 2 years ago. Insane. I’m now very seriously considering selling it to kbb or Carvana. Waiting on the Carvana quote.
I have a 2020 F250 with only 4700 miles on it. The NADA site says $10k over what anyone else offered me. Weird. Needs further research.
Carvana offered me about nothing and it is as new.
 
Interesting examples from 2016 and 2018. Need more data.

MrLemonade's Toyota was a fanboy/customizer sale

Just go on any of the major websites right now, Carvana, Carmax, Car Gurus, Autotrader, Craigslist...if it has a pickup bed it is worth crazy money now, especially anything roughly 2009 or newer, and clean older trucks. Prices are through the roof.

I want a 2010-11 Duratec 2.3 Ranger with under 100k miles sooner rather than later due to the age and miles of my current trucks, but I just can't find one. I try to watch Carvana, but they are always sale pending. Worst I saw today on Car Gurus was a dealer in TX selling a 196k mile 2011 for $12k and a 157k mile 2011 for $16k. These were 2WDs. That is crazy! My parents bought a very well equipped CPO (7 years of Ford warranty) 2011 Ranger in 2014 with right around 20k miles for $19k. I bet they would have no problem selling it for that now if they wanted to given it has maybe 50k on it and is in close to perfect condition. They love that truck, even I can't buy it for any price yet.

I have even started considering Frontiers. Not that I don't like them, but they were never really on my radar for purchase until now. Also base Colorados, maybe even a new one. I'm trying to wait it out for the right replacement 10-11 Ranger, but if there's a big failure in one of my current trucks I'll need something ASAP. That wasn't as worrying in the past, but in the current climate it is. I mean what if I can't even rent something? And you can't find beaters anymore either. This is the biggest shortage of vehicles people want to buy that I have ever seen.
 
A coworker of mine just made a DEAL trading in a 4yr old ram, and walked out with a 3500. While I could question the practicality of driving a 3500, the trade in price for his 1500 was incredible. I’m amazed at today’s trade in rates. I’d consider selling the Lexus on principle (3rd car), but I like it and don’t need anything else.
 
I can literally sell my Jetta for what I paid for it to Carmax right now... the only reason I haven't is because I'm in the middle of a mortgage refinance.
 
As another data point...

My 2020 Laramie 1500 bought Sept 30 last year. I got a good deal (12% off MSRP dealer discount, $3500 rebates, $1000 Conquest rebate, $1000 rebate code for being a member of PenFed credit union), about 21% off of MSRP $55,135. So I paid right about $43,500. 4800 miles currently.

Carvana and Vroom are both $49,700 or so to sell it to them. That is a $1000 jump in two weeks from Carvana. I checked them both shortly after buying the truck, for kicks, and Carvana was just under $40k and Vroom was $42k.

Due to the crazy market, I have an offer of $47,650 for trade with a local dealer as part of the deal for a new Ram 1500 Limited. That is guaranteed, but it could go up if the market keeps moving how it is. The tax benefits of trading negate any savings (and then some) of selling to Carvana or Vroom, plus I need my truck until the new one arrives (probably not until mid July to early August).
 
Other pros and cons of selling to buy later include:
* Saving money by not insuring, licensing, registering, an idle vehicle
* Losing money sunk in the initial cost of ownership, including the taxes (e.g. if you paid 10% in various taxes and transfer fees initially on a $50,000 then you sunk $5000 into it, which is never recovered).
* Losing money when you re-purchase another vehicle by again having to sink money into the transfer of ownership.
* Selling a known good vehicle only to have to gamble on buying a unknown vehicle later is a risk.
* Losing a lot of money sunk into proper maintenance of a good vehicle.
 
May see some car manufacturer rebates disappear due to no new car sales because of no production and lots empty of new vehicles . Hopefully not .
 
Other pros and cons of selling to buy later include:
* Saving money by not insuring, licensing, registering, an idle vehicle
* Losing money sunk in the initial cost of ownership, including the taxes (e.g. if you paid 10% in various taxes and transfer fees initially on a $50,000 then you sunk $5000 into it, which is never recovered).
* Losing money when you re-purchase another vehicle by again having to sink money into the transfer of ownership.
* Selling a known good vehicle only to have to gamble on buying a unknown vehicle later is a risk.
* Losing a lot of money sunk into proper maintenance of a good vehicle.
I can't really look at the sales taxes paid as lost money, although it was about 2.5k to tax and tag it initially. If i can get my lofty price for the truck i will be get that money back. Taxes and tags on an 80k truck might run over 6,000, so in the event my truck sells and i replace it with something nice it will be expensive.

I drove by a few new lots on the way home. They had VERY little in the way of new trucks. Some overpriced used trucks is all. RAM had a few CTD trucks in less desirable combinations like a 2500 mega cab. Not enough payload on those for towing. Person at the Ford dealership said i might get an F450 order in 3-4 months if i am lucky. They have a 54k miles 2019 platinum F450 for 80k. You should be able to get that truck new for that in normal times. It didn't look as big as i thought in real life. Might as well get one of those in a few years and have nuclear towing power.
 
Well, it's a gamble just like any equity or "investment" these days. They could go up, they could go down. But if you sell you know for sure you will NOT have it, and it MIGHT be harder and more expensive to replace with an unknown truck, using depreciating dollars, and you still then again have to pay new taxes on it so the money you "make back" will be eaten up again and you'll have paid the same tax, twice.

A year ago, I was casually looking at used cars and trucks and buying buying buying anything that interested me that seemed like a good deal. I let some slip thru my fingers but overall did well. All of my vehicles have increased remarkably in value today, but I'm not selling any of them.

I'll note, a year ago a nice low miles 10-15 year old Mustang V8 could be had for about $10,000. Yesterday I called on one that was admittedly a bit more rare and low miles and nicer than an average Mustang. I was expecting about $20k. The dealer told me it was $40k. I nearly chocked on my coffee... Um, no. $40k, for a 14 year old Mustang, even if a bit special, is not going to happen.
 
If you’re not going to use it much, the savings in insurance, coupled with the fact that at some point the economy will drop and trucks will lose massive value, may be a gamble worth taking. What’s your risk appetite?

Other option would be to park it, remove plates and insurance, and let it sit. If you think truck prices and taxes will continue to rise, taking profit just to dump more money into another truck seems like a gamble that you’ll have to be very lucky to break even.

It all depends on which way you think the markets will go, and if there’s actually enough profit to make it worthwhile, especially if you lose the sales tax offset by not trading into a different vehicle.
 
A guy recently bought a ZR2 Bison with 39,000 miles on it for $43k. I paid that for one with 2,167 miles. CPO.
 
A guy recently bought a ZR2 Bison with 39,000 miles on it for $43k. I paid that for one with 2,167 miles. CPO.
Was that shrewd bargaining, or insight that the market is turning the corner due to gas prices rising?
 
Increasing gas prices will put downward pressure on these insane truck/suv prices, but likely not enough to offset the crazy pricing. The guy that bought that Bison with 39k miles for $43k likely just really wanted it, and due to historic low inventories, paid a premium for it. Toyota pricing is even more absurd. 4Runner TRD Pro's are selling for over $60k.

Drove by a Chevy dealer yesterday and don't ever recall seeing the lot so bare.
 
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