Renowned housing analyst who predicted the 2008 home price crash weighs in on the current market

That is a neat idea. A lot of people would love to have relatively affordable ~1000-1500 sq ft condos within walking distance of everything they need, like groceries, hair salons, etc. Instead we have McCondos with nothing adjacent.

High density hubs could ease demand for residential single family homes.
There were some cities making real progress on this prior to the pandemic. After the pandemic everyone is leaving. No One enjoyed being trapped in their 600 square foot condo.
 
I make over $200k and have over a mil in assets and yet I can’t afford a house better than the one I bought in 2011. Must need to work harder.
Wait, you bought a house in 2011 and want another one? Times have changed and you have to change if you want to buying something larger in the same area I guess.
Yet you still have a brand new Mazda CX 30 and a 2019 pick up? Add to that you have a place to call home. I suspect not living too bad either. If you want more, yeah, I guess you have to move or do something different 200k isnt what it used to be in your area because people are paying more for the homes.
(just discussing because here is the flip side on how well it worked out for a young family in CO)

A family member moved from CO a year ago (ish) Moved there from another good position in CA some years earlier for a new job that a headhunter enticed him with. Bought a nice (modest home) for around 550 to 650 (forgot) Sold in one weekend 100k over the asking price for 1.2 million.
So I guess you can say CO worked out well for them. Im only mentioning this because we tend to complain but the people paying these prices are the new money who make more than you. Anyway, again, headhunter found him again, now a CEO of a company in another state and bought another million dollar home nicer than the last. Rather large family wife doesnt need to work and has time to follow her dream/passion in trying to improve the health of the people in this country while still raising 4 kids.

Im not in anyway being argumentative, It is what it is and sometimes reality is not pleasant. The market has spoke and the prices are what people can and are willing to pay. SO if you cant pay it, you have been passed by what you thought was good.

(for others who think college is expensive) There is always a way other than complain. We are a fairly large family, meaning kids and siblings. All doing ok to very well. No one complaining, no one got hand outs, they made it happen. The person I speak of here had some struggles when leaving the military (and where he got his technical training) but wow, determination and he made it happen, so big, that he is constantly being sought after. Im talking about a true success story.

Supply and demand works, (for careers too) best system in the world, being a free individual to use the fruits of your labor with as little government interference as possible. (hope this makes sense and not argumentative. Got up late this morning and still drinking my coffee)
 
Respectfully, you're quoting my posts and removing relevant information to the point I was making. I'm not sure if this is intentional or not, but let's please look at my quote in context. To rephrase: These are medical professionals. People who have to make career decisions YEARS in advance (due to education, training, etc.) before ever seeing a salary. Not necessarily unique by any means and can be applied to many career paths.

The point I was making, was that it was impossible to predict what would have happened before it did. These are high paying jobs regardless, so to say they made "poor decisions" was, in my opinion, out of place.
I dont do things intentional to whatever you are referring.

I know a family member doing her internship at a well known Manhattan hospital (for others internship means she is a doctor)
For the rent she pays and the INSANE hours she works and the limited time she has off, she just told us VERY recently when she visited that she is unsure if she would have picked this career if she could do it over again. Not very happy but will get through it I guess.

Yet still in the context of my post (wherever it is) this is the choice she made. We cant have government running all over the USA making sure the choice you made is a good one. It would not be fair that I and the public would have to pay for that with our paychecks.

Being free is self determination, it is what it is, there is no guarantee about anything in life except what you make it.
 
That is a neat idea. A lot of people would love to have relatively affordable ~1000-1500 sq ft condos within walking distance of everything they need, like groceries, hair salons, etc. Instead we have McCondos with nothing adjacent.

High density hubs could ease demand for residential single family homes.

I imagine it would spur a good amount of young adults to move there, passively giving companies normally seen in large downtown cities an incentive to open or move offices in suburbia. Then if your town or neighboring towns have a strong single family house market, they can move within a short driving distance. I'm kind of seeing that happen here now with many companies moving away from Chicago into the suburbs where their high-roller employees are moving to.
 
2008 was a banking failure because they kept too much lucrative junk debt on their books causing a deflationary bust. The housing crash was the effect not the cause. The banks love to blame everyone else. But I digress.

The banks are to blame at the surface. But who creates the system in which they operate? Who is printing into existence trillions of dollars and giving it to them FIRST? Who is socializing the risk of their misadventures? Who is creating and allowing a system where ANY bank can be "too big to fail"?

The answer is the government.

In a free market with robust disclosure rules, a bank that takes risk would bear that risk. A bank could fail and it wouldn't be a big deal because another bank would buy their assets for pennies on the dollar and the disruption would be temporary. And absent competition-stifling rules, you'd have a many much smaller banks instead of a handful of mega banks.

You can't convince me that an economy where 40% of the spending is directly from government and the other 60% is heavily controlled by government that anything at all like a free market capitalist system is in place. Just like you can't convince me it takes nearly 30,000 pages of rules to fund the government. But maybe it takes that many to make the system so complex that you can punish enemies and reward cronies in plain sight while creating an interest-group class of managers and handlers who will perpetuate the system because their existence depends on it. (tax attorneys, accountants, financial planners, IRS agents, etc). Literally every financial planner and tax filing service is an economic "benefit" the only exists because it keeps you out of jail. This is absolutely nothing productive, and has the same economic utility is paying extortion or ransom. It's pure cost nobody would pay if not compelled to.

We have a social democracy. The US is as socialist as a typical European country, and in some important ways even more socialist than the oft-cited Nordic countries. Nordic countries have far less progressivity in the taxes-- we give half our people a pass on paying for much of the system, and even subsidize them. Nordics make EVERYONE pay. We have a stifling regulatory regime that suppresses competition and entrenches the handful of big players that know and control the system. The Nordic have surprising laissez-faire attitude towards business regulation. It's much easier to start and run a business there. Yes they have high taxes, but they have very low compliance costs.

The American economy could be roaring along at a pace that leaves China in the dust. Because because and handful of very wealthy gatekeepers gain power and money from keeping things dysfunctional, it remains dysfunctional. Always remember: political problems exist because they are too politically lucrative to solve. What would Greenpeace or the Sierra club do if a report came out saying our air and water are excellent and let's just keep up the good work? What would the NRA do if there were no gun control efforts? What would all the of the paternalistic do-gooders in government do if the things were actually going pretty well without them?

At some point you have to recognize that making tying enormous power and money to solving social problems creates an incentive to GROW those problems (to grow ones power and money) and not actually solve them. How much money would there be in medicine if nobody was sick?

What if people got rich producing good and services of actual value instead of getting rich off the arbitrage of trading off the body parts of the corpse of the greatest economy in human history?
 
Here’s a picture of all that horrible high density living. Look at all the rifraff. In the US there’s more fallow ground dedicated to growing grass separating everything and forcing everyone to drive.

View attachment 229828

And here’s a picture of the local daily farmer’s market that you can walk to every morning which offers fresh local grown produce. I’m also sitting at this adjacent outdoor cafe. When I’m in the US I have to drive to Whole Foods 7 miles away to purchase my produce and then swing by the Starbucks drive through.

View attachment 229829

The US mentality on housing and suburban development is problematic right now. It can be done differently. We can put together “nice” communities with walkable amenities and desirable homes. We don’t even have to sacrifice autos. It just takes rethinking things a little bit.

Does it mean everyone should live like this? Nope. But we barely have a choice. Suburbs are only designed one way.
Why would you show some ideal town square someplace in monodisperse Europe, versus where folks actually live?!?!??

So in other words, your idea of ideal isn’t a town square sipping a drink, but actually this:

IMG_1034.webp


Ok, got it. Yup. No grass. No trees. No space. Cars everywhere all the same. Right. And again, Europe, not blighted inner city USA.

Not this, right?

IMG_1035.webp


Or this?
IMG_1036.webp


Maybe this is better…

IMG_1037.webp

The US mentality on housing and suburban development is problematic right now. It can be done differently. We can put together “nice” communities with walkable amenities and desirable homes. We don’t even have to sacrifice autos. It just takes rethinking things a little bit.

Does it mean everyone should live like this? Nope. But we barely have a choice. Suburbs are only designed one way.

Suburbs aren’t designed only one way.

I’m a fan of the inner ring suburbs that have smaller homes, individual yards, walkable schools, no bussing whatsoever. The >3000 sf McMansion on a huge yard with no sidewalks or walk ability isn’t every suburb. But those existing established suburbs don’t need to have 100 yo two story structures torn down for six story apartments, with a bad assumption that the residents will give up their cars for bikes and trains. Nor does everything need to be an apartment or rowhome.
 
I'm a savvy person in finance and business. Yes, that loan based in part on the appreciation of my home, allowed me to reinvest into my greatest asset of all, my business, at a phenomenal rate and terms. That $500K investment in my business within two years was returning 2x that per year and that loan was paid off in year 3. The value of my home allowed me to use OPM at a minimal cost to me, it allowed me to not have to reduce my personal cash flow, and it's paid off. I've done this several times with capital improvements in my business.

I could've cash-flowed the project but why? Why take an income hit when I don't have to? Is there risk there? Sure, but my business is 14 years old and robust and I'll take that bet every time. I know people in real estate who started by leveraging the value in their homes to buy properties and they now own a hundred properties making millions. Every new purchase was simply done by taking equity out of one project and rolling it into the new project. The ROI using leverage is absolutely huge.

So while you may be unimpressed consider this...while there are people who can not use debt and leverage responsibly, there are other people using it responsibly and it is returning millions of dollars to them, and that would not be possible using 100% of their own money.
Most people take money out of their houses to buy sports cars, boats, vacations and unneeded up grades. My wife worked as a loan agent before retiring from it years ago.
 
The banks are to blame at the surface. But who creates the system in which they operate? Who is printing into existence trillions of dollars and giving it to them FIRST? Who is socializing the risk of their misadventures? Who is creating and allowing a system where ANY bank can be "too big to fail"?

The answer is the government.

In a free market with robust disclosure rules, a bank that takes risk would bear that risk. A bank could fail and it wouldn't be a big deal because another bank would buy their assets for pennies on the dollar and the disruption would be temporary. And absent competition-stifling rules, you'd have a many much smaller banks instead of a handful of mega banks.

You can't convince me that an economy where 40% of the spending is directly from government and the other 60% is heavily controlled by government that anything at all like a free market capitalist system is in place. Just like you can't convince me it takes nearly 30,000 pages of rules to fund the government. But maybe it takes that many to make the system so complex that you can punish enemies and reward cronies in plain sight while creating an interest-group class of managers and handlers who will perpetuate the system because their existence depends on it. (tax attorneys, accountants, financial planners, IRS agents, etc). Literally every financial planner and tax filing service is an economic "benefit" the only exists because it keeps you out of jail. This is absolutely nothing productive, and has the same economic utility is paying extortion or ransom. It's pure cost nobody would pay if not compelled to.

We have a social democracy. The US is as socialist as a typical European country, and in some important ways even more socialist than the oft-cited Nordic countries. Nordic countries have far less progressivity in the taxes-- we give half our people a pass on paying for much of the system, and even subsidize them. Nordics make EVERYONE pay. We have a stifling regulatory regime that suppresses competition and entrenches the handful of big players that know and control the system. The Nordic have surprising laissez-faire attitude towards business regulation. It's much easier to start and run a business there. Yes they have high taxes, but they have very low compliance costs.

The American economy could be roaring along at a pace that leaves China in the dust. Because because and handful of very wealthy gatekeepers gain power and money from keeping things dysfunctional, it remains dysfunctional. Always remember: political problems exist because they are too politically lucrative to solve. What would Greenpeace or the Sierra club do if a report came out saying our air and water are excellent and let's just keep up the good work? What would the NRA do if there were no gun control efforts? What would all the of the paternalistic do-gooders in government do if the things were actually going pretty well without them?

At some point you have to recognize that making tying enormous power and money to solving social problems creates an incentive to GROW those problems (to grow ones power and money) and not actually solve them. How much money would there be in medicine if nobody was sick?

What if people got rich producing good and services of actual value instead of getting rich off the arbitrage of trading off the body parts of the corpse of the greatest economy in human history?
It all points to our politicians being the #1 crime gang on the planet.
 
Most people take money out of their houses to buy sports cars, boats, vacations and unneeded up grades. My wife worked as a loan agent before retiring from it years ago.
Yup, most people are terrible with money and then sit there dumbfounded by how they don't have any.
 
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