Renowned housing analyst who predicted the 2008 home price crash weighs in on the current market

[PWMDMD]

Be careful with this. We’ve had it for a number of years, because tax is so bad. The schools have suffered and teacher salaries have lagged. So now we’re starting to lose teachers.

I live in a walking district. Home rule. If someone doesn’t mind destroying their kids lives and health bussing them all over the countryside, maybe it’s less of an issue. But for folks with small towns and walkable districts (I’d assume much of NE is that too), it can have issues, especially if other areas not that far away are regionalized and offer more because they have more taxables/rateables. It’s a balance.

We have a regional school district made up of 5 towns and have voted to approve the school budget every year since prop 2 1/2 passed.

 

[JHZR2]

We have a regional school district made up of 5 towns and have voted to approve the school budget every year since prop 2 1/2 passed.

We have too. But it does affect the raises and salary charts. It wasn’t an issue until recently. It took time.

 

[Fitter30]

Have bought 3 houses first 1972@22 7.68% interest rate second 1977 5.2%, 3 rd house 50% down paid off 5 years. You want to drive new cars, biggest tv, cash poor you made your bed. We are all a heartbeat from disaster.
Vote for every school tax increase. Kids are the future. Sorry for the people that education is what they remember. It was another life. Rural kids need what city kids should have.

 

[Plawan]

Housing will go one way. Up!

I think so too. Only 1 time in my adult life has housing gone down and that was the housing bust of 2008 which was manufactured basically.

 

[JHZR2]

Have bought 3 houses first 1972@22 7.68% interest rate second 1977 5.2%, 3 rd house 50% down paid off 5 years. You want to drive new cars, biggest tv, cash poor you made your bed. We are all a heartbeat from disaster.
Vote for every school tax increase. Kids are the future. Sorry for the people that education is what they remember. It was another life. Rural kids need what city kids should have.

I think that’s an oversimplification.

If housing is at record multipliers of median salary, then it is eroding the ability to do anything else. Sure, there are life decisions, and perhaps things that should be done without. But it’s still a higher fraction than ever. And that’s the property value. Don’t forget the costs for property tax, which is the biggest erosion of buying power, and upkeep. Rebuild costs have gone up 30%+ since 2020. Repair costs are commensurate.

If salaries don’t keep up in many sectors. Or even just lag, then the ability for many to afford it suffers. That isn’t rocket science.

 

[SC Maintenance]

What I find quite entertaining is the people saying young people don’t work hard enough are the ones that have had their house and 401K double in the last 5 years and they somehow think that was there good management not money printing that caused it. Double standard it seems?

Unfortunately if prices fall Wall Street will simply rotate in and buy everything anyway since they always have access to unlimited capital for cheap.

 

[Dave Hess]

Trillions and trillions of cash pumped into economy supercharged everything (stock market, housing, growth of economy, etc..).

I would like to know if BITOG members are helping the kids buy homes ?

 

[goingplacesanddoingstuff]

Am I supposed to be impressed by a “renowned” analyst???!? A broken clock is right twice a day. I feel like these folks leverage their fame making claims and then banking on the fact that they got the last one right.

It doesn’t always work out.

Is there enough housing? No. It’s scary when folks talk increasing density in nice established communities. No. Just no. That will make them not nice. So might as well fix the high density situations that already exist and are horrible, rather than destroying the next community down the road.

So there isn’t enough supply. Yet we’re destroying farmland at an alarming pace for garbage homes with no real level of craftmanship or quality. Someone is buying them.

Will it all crash? At some point too many price increases will make more and more folks not be able to afford, and it will hit critical mass, they will sell, prices will drop because it’s still $$$ with high interest rates that can’t drop because we print too much money and have too much bad debt, and something will give. Whatever it is. And a new equilibrium will form.

Here’s a picture of all that horrible high density living. Look at all the rifraff. In the US there’s more fallow ground dedicated to growing grass separating everything and forcing everyone to drive.

And here’s a picture of the local daily farmer’s market that you can walk to every morning which offers fresh local grown produce. I’m also sitting at this adjacent outdoor cafe. When I’m in the US I have to drive to Whole Foods 7 miles away to purchase my produce and then swing by the Starbucks drive through.

The US mentality on housing and suburban development is problematic right now. It can be done differently. We can put together “nice” communities with walkable amenities and desirable homes. We don’t even have to sacrifice autos. It just takes rethinking things a little bit.

Does it mean everyone should live like this? Nope. But we barely have a choice. Suburbs are only designed one way.

 

[Highlander 1459]

They both sound like miserable places to live...

I don't think miserable is the right choice of words...
I tend towards thinking they are expensive and over regulated.

 

[Pew]

Here’s a picture of all that horrible high density living. Look at all the rifraff. In the US there’s more fallow ground dedicated to growing grass separating everything and forcing everyone to drive.

View attachment 229828

And here’s a picture of the local daily farmer’s market that you can walk to every morning which offers fresh local grown produce. I’m also sitting at this adjacent outdoor cafe. When I’m in the US I have to drive to Whole Foods 7 miles away to purchase my produce and then swing by the Starbucks drive through.

View attachment 229829

The US mentality on housing and suburban development is problematic right now. It can be done differently. We can put together “nice” communities with walkable amenities and desirable homes. We don’t even have to sacrifice autos. It just takes rethinking things a little bit.

Does it mean everyone should live like this? Nope. But we barely have a choice. Suburbs are only designed one way.

There's a lot of places by me where malls/strip malls have died or is dying and they've redone the development to a store on the bottom and apartment on top mix and I think it's a good idea. Get rid of the hundred acres of empty parking lots. It does certainly help younger folks who don't need the size and maintenance required from a house while letting them walk a short distance away for amenities and still have space for car use. Plus the small ground floor stores can be filled with mom and pop shops without the costs and issues of a dedicated commercial strip.

 

[PWMDMD]

I don't think miserable is the right choice of words...
I tend towards thinking they are expensive and over regulated.

...it was said tongue and cheek which doesn't always translate on the interweb.

 

[Highlander 1459]

Taxes/politics and the amount of people - yes your are right. Otherwise a beautiful state with unmatched weather. I lived there 50 years.

I've never been to CA but judging by photos much of it is a beautiful place and a couple people I know who spent time( USN) in San Diego said the weather was the nicest of anywhere they ever have been.

 

[Highlander 1459]

...it was said tongue and cheek which doesn't always translate on the interweb.

gotcha. I live in SWFLA, which is booming... in some respects it too is a miserable place to live and the more people that move here, the more miserable it becomes

 

[SC Maintenance]

Here’s a picture of all that horrible high density living. Look at all the rifraff. In the US there’s more fallow ground dedicated to growing grass separating everything and forcing everyone to drive.

View attachment 229828

And here’s a picture of the local daily farmer’s market that you can walk to every morning which offers fresh local grown produce. I’m also sitting at this adjacent outdoor cafe. When I’m in the US I have to drive to Whole Foods 7 miles away to purchase my produce and then swing by the Starbucks drive through.

View attachment 229829

The US mentality on housing and suburban development is problematic right now. It can be done differently. We can put together “nice” communities with walkable amenities and desirable homes. We don’t even have to sacrifice autos. It just takes rethinking things a little bit.

Does it mean everyone should live like this? Nope. But we barely have a choice. Suburbs are only designed one way.

While I must admit I like euro city centers and have wondered around several , one of the thing demographers site as extremely low birth rates in Europe, Japan, South Korea, etc is very dense housing and high cost of ownership vs lots of space in the American suburbs.

Now that I am older I want to move back into the city. I would never have raised my kids there however.

 

[goingplacesanddoingstuff]

There's a lot of places by me where malls/strip malls have died or is dying and they've redone the development to a store on the bottom and apartment on top mix and I think it's a good idea. Get rid of the hundred acres of empty parking lots. It does certainly help younger folks who don't need the size and maintenance required from a house while letting them walk a short distance away for amenities and still have space for car use. Plus the small ground floor stores can be filled with mom and pop shops without the costs and issues of a dedicated commercial strip.

That is a neat idea. A lot of people would love to have relatively affordable ~1000-1500 sq ft condos within walking distance of everything they need, like groceries, hair salons, etc. Instead we have McCondos with nothing adjacent.

High density hubs could ease demand for residential single family homes.

 

[Highlander 1459]

While I must admit I like euro city centers and have wondered around several , one of the thing demographers site as extremely low birth rates in Europe, Japan, South Korea, etc is very dense housing and high cost of ownership vs lots of space in the American suburbs.

Now that I am older I want to move back into the city. I would never have raised my kids there however.

I think that explains the growth of The Villages in central Florida. Commuity is huge and is devoted to seniors who ride around on golf carts because everything is close... years back I lived on Miami Beach, desnity is like Manhattan without so many tall buildings and you could live there without a car... it has some advanatges.

 

[Pew]

I've never been to CA but judging by photos much of it is a beautiful place and a couple people I know who spent time( USN) in San Diego said the weather was the nicest of anywhere they ever have been.

I went to bootcamp in San Diego. I don't think I've experienced weather as consistently nice anywhere else so far. Though, of course that meant more running lol.

 

[goingplacesanddoingstuff]

While I must admit I like euro city centers and have wondered around several , one of the thing demographers site as extremely low birth rates in Europe, Japan, South Korea, etc is very dense housing and high cost of ownership vs lots of space in the American suburbs.

Now that I am older I want to move back into the city. I would never have raised my kids there however.

Fair points. Aren’t birth rates are a function of how optimistic people are of their future prospects?

 

[zzyzzx]

the more people that move here, the more miserable it becomes

That can apply to anyplace.

 

[SC Maintenance]

Fair points. Aren’t birth rates are a function of how optimistic people are of their future prospects?

Possibly but more likely shorter term - like when birth rates plummeted after the pandemic.

The thing demographers state is that everyone had a baby boom after WW2 but US was only country with any real millenial boom. The biggest difference they can find is US suburbia.