Renowned housing analyst who predicted the 2008 home price crash weighs in on the current market

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I think the key here is you are an individual with the god given individual freedoms to pursue a career in whatever you want, Success or failure is up to you and you have to stop looking for government to fix your personal problems.
You are the government and it is in no better shape than your voting habits. http://www.usdebtclock.org Just wait until you have to pay this back. The day is coming and it is a result of you voting for government to fix your problems. Just wait, the day is coming that the debt clock will stop and then it is when you will realize how easy you have had it. (NO politics, strictly financial sense)
 
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alarmguy said:
I think the key here is you are an individual with the god given individual freedoms to pursue a career in whatever you want, Success or failure is up to you and you have to stop looking for government to fix your personal problems.
You are the government and it is in no better shape than your voting habits. http://www.usdebtclock.org Just wait until you have to pay this back. The day is coming and it is a result of you voting for government to fix your problems. Just wait, the day is coming that the debt clock will stop and then it is when you will realize how easy you have had it.
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well said....
 
I am not implying one party over another, its just the cycle that always happens. Existing party will lower fuel costs to create some victory to buy votes, the new party will lower interest rates to buy votes, its been this way for decades. One party will be strong on defense the other will not, etc. When the stock market is lower, house prices are higher, and vice versa, its the nature of this beast.
 
alarmguy said:
Social Media is why. Its only a tiny portion of the population/complainers and mass media that feeds it further
It's easy to control human beings perspective of what is real and what is now.
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Social media? Don't have it.

Zoom out, look at the data regarding wages and home prices. It's easy to subscribe to the idea "I made it, so you figure it out for yourselves..." Trust me, I'm there with you, it makes no difference to me personally what home prices are.

Everyone I've talked to has similar concerns regarding home affordability. Fresh graduates working in healthcare (nurses, etc.) not sure if they'll ever be able to afford even a starter home. "I couldn't afford my house now.." is the common theme for the existing home owners I know.

These are real concerns and not "complainers" you are so quickly to dismiss them as.
 
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alarmguy said:
I dont know any struggling young people out of the dozens that I know and are all living way better than people in the 60s, 70s and 80s.
If they cant find a job with less than a 4% unemployment rate, they arent trying or need to move to a place where they can. http://indeed.com is a good place to view jobs in other areas.
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I never thought I'd live in central MA but here I am because there was opportunity here that I didn't have in CT/NY. Uprooted my life, my wife's life and my kid's lives because it made sense.
 
People DREAM of a life in the USA. Im pretty connected in that way.
Here is an amazing story, since graduated Harvard, used to walk to school 2 hours each way in order to better himself. The USA is still looked upon as the land of opportunity and why so many people overseas do well here. They work and do what it takes to make things happen and grateful for this a country like ours that they can do it in. Just ask @JeffKeryk whom I am sure met many of those people in Silicon Valley.

Im pretty connected in ways I rather not disclose but know of this individual and the struggles to achieve what he has.
A dirt poor farm boy in the Philippines, with the determination to walk to school TWO hours each way, everyday in order to build a better life for himself, against what Americans would call impossible odds. With some caring help he recently graduated from Harvard.
This was his story before that time. https://www.esquiremag.ph/the-good-...lacan-made-it-to-harvard-a00181-20170807-lfrm
 
TheOilWizard said:
...

Everyone I've talked to has similar concerns regarding home affordability. Fresh graduates working in healthcare (nurses, etc.) not sure if they'll ever be able to afford even a starter home. "I couldn't afford my house now.." is the common theme for the existing home owners I know.

These are real concerns and not "complainers" you are so quickly to dismiss them as.
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They made poor choices. Why did they spend the money to go into healthcare if they were not going to be able to afford a home, if that is what they wanted? This is about being free to chose their own path.

I could have sent them to Spartanburg SC to work at BMW without college and they could have bought a home if that is what they wanted. Or a tech school in healthcare where one of 4 hospital networks here would have hired them for the position they got educated in, then further advance on the hospital paying.

There are also Boeing plants here, Volvo plants AND all the supporting companies for those and they own homes and have families. I mean, it's about charting a career and looking up what you are going to draw in an income. Just a title as "nurse" doesnt entitle anyone to anything. Though I know many nurses who do well AND further educate themselves into specialized fields. Heck I know a transplant nurse, cardiac nurse who have done well.

I think the problem here is peoples mis-conception of job title and actual income vs education expense. BTW- as you, im just discussing, dont read my words wrong or think I am being argumentative. I do think sometimes, like I posted above, people get caught up in their local area of what is possible, instead of looking out into this cast country and seeing what is possible. It's hard to break away from despair and depression. Pick and choose new homes in the $200's and $300 in much of NC and SC. Since new, they need no money put into them for 15 to 20 years. When I was young, we didnt have that. We bought homes, literally tore out the walls and rebuilt the 1950s homes from top to bottom and they were smaller too.
 
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alarmguy said:
They made poor choices. Why did they spend the money to go into healthcare if they were not going to be able to afford a home, if that is what they wanted? This is about being free to chose their own path.

I could have sent them to Spartanburg SC to work at BMW without college and they could have bought a home if that is what they wanted. Or a tech school in healthcare where one of 4 hospital networks here would have hired them for the position they got educated in, then further advance on the hospital paying.

There are also Boeing plants here, Volvo plants AND all the supporting companies for those. I mean, it's about charting a career and looking up what you are going to draw in an income. Just a title as "nurse" doesnt entitle anyone to anything. Though I know many nurses who do well AND further educate themselves into specialized fields. Heck I know a transplant nurse, cardiac nurse who have done well.

I think the problem here is peoples mis-conception of job title and actual income vs education expense. BTW- as you, im just discussing, dont read my words wrong or think I am being argumentative. .
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Healthcare salaries are well above median across the entire country. I don't know that anyone would consider them a "bad choice" from an economic/financial standpoint. Take healthcare out of the equation, and my point is that simply having a good salary is increasingly becoming not enough.

I agree that individuals should align their projected salaries with their standard of living. If you want to afford a home, you need to find a career that pays X per year. Sure, but all of that was turned upside down during this latest run. Any planning you did prior to 2020 is irrelevant. Again, I'm very hesitant to call anyone out in that situation as making a bad career choice.
 
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There is nothing stating you have to keep up with the Joneses. This is what gets people in trouble. Live comfortably within your means and honestly none of this matters any longer. A few years ago I was on a kick to build something bigger and nicer. Once the price hit $2.2M my reality hit and I said no way I was going into that type of debt. Could I afford it? Yes. Did I need it? No. I am comfortable in my little 2700sf pool home that I paid $350K for that is not worth $850k, if I get bored, I remodel, paint or whatever.
 
goingplacesanddoingstuff said:
I make over $200k and have over a mil in assets and yet I can’t afford a house better than the one I bought in 2011. Must need to work harder.
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Soon you will be ridiculed for choosing poorly, should have gone to work at the Volvo plant, should have bought in an expensive area and moved across the country, etc. :ROFLMAO:
 
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goingplacesanddoingstuff said:
I make over $200k and have over a mil in assets and yet I can’t afford a house better than the one I bought in 2011. Must need to work harder.
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Where do you live? I moved from "The Gold Coast" of CT with all my friends and my wife's family to central MA to the same size house for half as much. I decided I didn't want to try and "keep up" with all the Wall Street guys in my neighborhood and to go be a big fish in a little pond. It was the best decision I've made as far how my life is setup other than marrying my wife. As I've said, if you told me 10 years ago I'd live in a Suburb of Worcester, I would've said, "Where?" It is a really great place to live and I didn't know what I didn't know.
 
alarmguy said:
People DREAM of a life in the USA. Im pretty connected in that way.
Here is an amazing story, since graduated Harvard, used to walk to school 2 hours each way in order to better himself. The USA is still looked upon as the land of opportunity and why so many people overseas do well here. They work and do what it takes to make things happen and grateful for this a country like ours that they can do it in. Just ask @JeffKeryk whom I am sure met many of those people in Silicon Valley.

Im pretty connected in ways I rather not disclose but know of this individual and the struggles to achieve what he has.
A dirt poor farm boy in the Philippines, with the determination to walk to school TWO hours each way, everyday in order to build a better life for himself, against what Americans would call impossible odds. With some caring help he recently graduated from Harvard.
This was his story before that time. https://www.esquiremag.ph/the-good-...lacan-made-it-to-harvard-a00181-20170807-lfrm
Click to expand...
This IS the land of opportunity. So many come here, some legally, some otherwise, for the promise of a better life.
I am witness to making mistake after mistake and still have opportunity as a late bloomer.

People who snivel about life here, play the blame game, etc, I say, "Now what are you gonna do about it? Get into action!"

And congrats to that young man from Philippines. I have many Filipino friends; incredible work ethic, good families and generous to others. Magandan umaga kaibigan.
My father was the son of very poor Ukrainian immigrants. Joined the Navy in WWII; they sent him to Yale University. His roommate was Victor Kiam (later owner of the NE Pats) and graduated with President Bush Senior.

California is a wonderful place, with the promise of quality low cost education. And I tell people if you can't make it in Silicon Valley, you can't make it anywhere. Opportunity abounds!
 
goingplacesanddoingstuff said:
Millennials in the US will not get a break, in other words. It’s global catastrophe after global catastrophe. We had 9/11, dot com bust, depression of 2008, covid, now runaway inflation and a housing shortage with a combo of high prices and high rates that make for the least affordable monthly payments in history. No end in sight.

The boomers are flush with so much cash and have so much relative voting power they’re inadvertently suppressing opportunities for younger gens by simply having different interests. The article is correct that we need higher housing density and revised zoning, but that is unlikely to happen given the interests of the voting block. We’re set up for the biggest generational transfer of wealth in the history of mankind as they exit the stage.
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I honestly do not think for a minute boomers are any place near in control as the powerful voting block folks assume. I am willing to bet if so, the USA would not be caught up in the world of sickening "identity/celebrity politics" that we have been in for the past couple of decades.
 
ecotourist said:
I agree with part of what you say. If you sell out and move down the block you don't gain anything.

But there are benefits to having your house price soar:
  • You could sell out and move to a lower cost community and live off the difference.
  • You could take out a reverse mortgage that is actually larger than your original investment.
  • Your ability to borrow (if you call that a benefit) will be enhanced by your larger net worth.
  • Your estate will be larger - your children and grandchildren will benefit.
  • There will be fewer questions about your monthly mortgage payments since your mortgage is a smaller percent of your home's value.
And I don't agree that your taxes will be higher because your home has increased in value. That's a common misconception. The cost of running the local government (city, town, rural community, whatever) is divided up amongst the property owners based on everyone's property values (the so-called "mill rate" system). The only way you would pay an increased share of property taxes is if your home's value soared and everyone else's stayed the same. Your taxes may be higher (and probably are) but it's not because your home has increased in value.
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Property taxes in my area have increased exponentially in line with the home values. I understand that it's not a 1-to-1 connection (and that's an important distinction you made), but I do believe it's an influencing factor. Home insurance premiums as well.

The dramatic and sudden increase in home values has not helped me or those I know at all. I do appreciate your glass-half-full view, at least.
 
PWMDMD said:
Where do you live? I moved from "The Gold Coast" of CT with all my friends and my wife's family to central MA to the same size house for half as much. I decided I didn't want to try and "keep up" with all the Wall Street guys in my neighborhood and to go be a big fish in a little pond. It was the best decision I've made as far how my life is setup other than marrying my wife. As I've said, if you told me 10 years ago I'd live in a Suburb of Worcester, I would've said, "Where?" It is a really great place to live and I didn't know what I didn't know.
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Colorado, where the cost of living has far outpaced wage growth.
 
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