Renowned housing analyst who predicted the 2008 home price crash weighs in on the current market

[jeepman3071]

Not going to happen. All that equity is going to go towards paying for care in their 70's and 80's.

+1

My grandmother had dementia in her 80s, she lived with my parents until it became too hard to take care of her and she was in a nursing home for the last 5 years of her life. It was $11,000 a month, and she died back in 2015, so I can imagine it is more now.

 

[alarmguy]

1. Millennials didn't live through WWI, WWII, the Vietnam War, the Cold War, 17% interest rates in the early 1980s, The Cuba Missile Crisis, etc, etc, etc, etc. I guess I'm asking what's your point? All those things you listed happened to all of us, including the wealth-hoarding boomers. Horrible things have been happening in human lives since the start of humanity. Do you think 100 years ago was easier? What about 300 years ago? 1000 years ago? 10,000 years ago? If it wasn't disease it was famine, and if it wasn't famine a sabertooth tiger jumped out of the grass and murdered you, and if you survived that you were burned at the stake for being possessed demons, or you just died at 37 of "natural causes". It is about as easy as it has been for humans, especially in the US of all places. Life has always been a grind for all of human history.

2. What break do you want? There are no breaks. Life is what it is right now.
...

You hit it right on, thank you. Some of the younger population feel entitled to be owed something and they look to elected officials to make their life more easy. That is dangerous looking for a sugar daddy to take care of you with other peoples hard earned money.

Life in this world, this country has never been more easy since mankind first walked on this earth. Its gets tiring hearing of the whining from a select group that has a louder than reality voice on social media.
If you cant make it in this world, stop blaming others and read up/learn on how others made it work. They didnt make it by whining.

 

[jeepman3071]

You hit it right on, thank you. Some of the population feel entitled to be owed something and they look to elected officials to make their life more easy. That is dangerous looking for a sugar daddy to take care of you.

Life in this world, this country has never been more easy since mankind first walked on this earth. Its gets tiring hearing of the whining form a select group that has a louder than reality voice on social media.
If you cant make it in this world, stop blaming others and read up/learn on how others made it work. They didnt make it by whining .

As a millennial I agree there is a lot of whining, but there are definitely some things the older generation doesn't understand about how life is different for us compared to back then.

I remember two of my retired neighbors telling me I was "foolish" for not getting a job right out of college with a pension. Meanwhile the same jobs they retired from earning a pension with their full six figure salary were both hiring and those benefits were no longer included.

I disagree with the post above stating millennials will be able to retire earlier, it simply isn't the case unless you do pretty much the opposite of the societal norms these days. Retirement benefits are MUCH worse at many employers now than they ever have been. I'm fortunate to work at a university now with good benefits, but it is not the norm. All of my previous employers the healthcare and retirement were pretty sad, but inline with most corporate benefits these days. I'm very fortunate, but I have also never taken on a car loan, and was able to work full-time all through college to graduate with no student debt while also owning a business. Those are not the norm for most people these days. I have a few student employees who are also commuting and working full-time like I was during college, and even for them there is no way they will be in the financial shape I was in when I graduated. I'm not saying "oh life is so hard now" but times have changed. It is no longer financially possible to work a run of the mill part-time job, pay for school as you go, and also live in an apartment by yourself like my parents did. You wouldn't even qualify now.

 

[PWMDMD]

As a millennial I agree there is a lot of whining, but there are definitely some things the older generation doesn't understand about how life is different for us compared to back then.

This is true of every generation as they come of age. There are ALWAYS new challenges and there always will be for the foreseeable future. Eventually, if a generation is to ultimately be successful, they need to realize no one cares, no one is coming to help, and they need to figure the new reality out themselves. For clarification, by "no one cares", I mean everyone else has their own unique set of challenges and issues that they dealing with in the grind that is life, and they are busy grinding.

Here I'll complain, my generation GenX, right now is carrying the world. We are simultaneously taking care of younger generations who fail to launch while also taking care of our boomer parents. We are literally stuck between generations who can't care for themselves and all these adjacent generations are just staring at us expecting us to help.

To that we (Gen X) say, fine, we'll do what we need to do to take care of age parents and failing children, even if that means sacrificing our own future and comfort because what choice do we have? Complaining about it isn't going to make it better so I better go see some patients.

 

[TheOilWizard]

It’s all relative to the rest on the nation.
People cashing out on Long Island and metro NY.
Come down to the land of the free in the Carolinas and southern states. Buy a brand new home and have boatloads of cash left over to live like they never have before.

It’s unbelievable how happy they are laughing about the purchase price here and what they sold for “there”

We did the same before the last crash in 2006 we sold a modest Long Island home for a stupid high price, purchased what we felt was a castle in SC at almost 300% more square feet very well appointed and constructed new home in a new community at (get this) 50% less than we sold the old NY home

Now that people are flocking here in DROVES the prices have gone up but still people doing well cashing out up north.
Everywhere we drive in our more rural coastline huge communities are going up (we are part of one) new section of a community being built for the last 2 decades.

Some being built are going to be larger than the existing town population they are being built in. What blows my mind is SO FAR they are selling as fast as they can built them. I THINK I am seeing paring down of options the builders were throwing in to keep prices the same.

When we purchased 2023 but actually contracted in 2022 our home was loaded with so many upgrades it really wasn’t possible to get more. Now the same models are being built with more standard stuff and way less options at around the same prices and still sell as fast as they can be built

You say "it's all relative to the rest of the nation" (to which I agree) but then completely overlook an entire generation that is unable to own a home with good wages. Relatively, I say, this sharp housing boom is not a net-good for the nation.

Yes, some people benefit from the current housing boom as you are able to point out, but this mass-migration of sorts is only applicable to a relatively small percentage of the country, and ironically has only made homes even MORE unaffordable. Sooner than later, there will be nowhere left to go.

PS - I'm not bringing up these issues for my own sake, but I do sympathize with other hard-working people that are struggling to afford a home.

 

[alarmguy]

As a millennial I agree there is a lot of whining, but there are definitely some things the older generation doesn't understand about how life is different for us compared to back then.

I remember two of my retired neighbors telling me I was "foolish" for not getting a job right out of college with a pension. Meanwhile the same jobs they retired from earning a pension with their full six figure salary were both hiring and those benefits were no longer included.

I disagree with the post above stating millennials will be able to retire earlier, it simply isn't the case unless you do pretty much the opposite of the societal norms these days. Retirement benefits are MUCH worse at many employers now than they ever have been. I'm fortunate to work at a university now with good benefits, but it is not the norm. All of my previous employers the healthcare and retirement were pretty sad, but inline with most corporate benefits these days. I'm very fortunate, but I have also never taken on a car loan, and was able to work full-time all through college to graduate with no student debt while also owning a business. Those are not the norm for most people these days. I have a few student employees who are also commuting and working full-time like I was during college, and even for them there is no way they will be in the financial shape I was in when I graduated. I'm not saying "oh life is so hard now" but times have changed. It is no longer financially possible to work a run of the mill part-time job, pay for school as you go, and also live in an apartment by yourself like my parents did. You wouldn't even qualify now.

Sorry, can not agree. Want to be a free person then one has to take charge of their life. Simple stuff.
I could counter everything a millennial says and still come back that life has never been more easy in the history of mankind.

This stuff about the same jobs? Well then go into a different field. As time goes on the fields that make money do to. Become a plumber, tradesman/woman. Your salary is whatever you want it to be. College? go to a trade school many make more money than traditional college kids. Not only that but in the medical field they will pay for your education to advance even further. Same goes for technology.
These opportunities did not exist decades ago except for very top management.

and oh, I do get tired of hearing about retirement being pretty sad. The young do not even know that 401k plans did not exist before 1978. Good for you on cars loans (really not kidding and want you to know I am just discussing) SO many of the young (and many old) can not resist buying stuff instead of saving money. How many younger people are driving around in cars that decades ago would hace been unheard of for someone young, youth who take out 60 and 72 month car loans, finance the latest most expensive cell phones on the market instead of a $100 one, actually pay monthly subscription fees for EVERYTHING, music, internet, television, sports packages, its endless. None of this stuff existed decades ago. Let's not even get started on housing and the homes they buy now adays. Filled with luxury and sized MUCH larger than decades ago.
GO down to the coast and large lakes on days, see people having fun on their $12,000 jet skis, $50,000 +++ boats.

Life is good, many happy young people out there who know how to make it happen. The others on social media complaining.
My son, works at BMW, largest plant in the world, largest exporter of cars in the USA was never college material, has a wife, 2 kids, a home of their own, drives not one but two BMWs (not that I agreed at the time but one is paid off the other a BMW employee lease which is a pretty nice deal). Was never college material but he knows how to work hard and the value of $60 an hour overtime. His benefits are of all the wall great. I dont want to misquote but maybe his medical has a deductible as low as $250 for the family. Works 10 hour days but every month gets 5 days off in a row in addition to his normal 2 days off a week. Lots of PTO etc.

My daughter was college material, did her 4 years at Clemson University, before she even started her FIRST day of college she started working at a local tavern for her spending money. < knocked out student loans in five years with us matching 50% of the extra priceable she was paying. Now holds an amazing job with an international company and one of the largest employers in the USA and Canada. Doing so well they created a department that she runs and now on her 3rd promotion taking place soon.
Life has never been more easy for those who want to work and more easy to move anyplace in the USA and make it happen.

What was an old occupation in the past will not pay what a new occupation will pay in the future. Supply and Demand rules in a free market. If the youth wants to be free that is. Maybe a study of the old USSR is needed by some. I remember back then how some made it seem so good, free health care, everyone lives in a house ha!

I want to repeat I am just discussing, dont read my words wrong. Just tell the youth to throw away all the so called luxuries they enjoy today and they will live far better than anyone ever did in the history of mankind. But instead they give their money to banks for interest payments and buy luxuries that they should not.
This is just a small percentage of youth that cant make it happen. Out of dozens of young families that I know, in and out of my family circle I dont know of any failures. IN fact I admire how well they are doing. I know of two in the last 3 months who were deciding on moving south, young kids, young families. Call me crazy but my house wasnt worth the ONE MILLION dollars theirs are now and I lived in the same area when I was young.

 

[goingplacesanddoingstuff]

I have more success than most boomers and still the line is “quit whining and get a job.” I have a job, investments, etc.

The problem is that the system is degrading faster than successful young people can keep up. Their lifestyles are in severe retrograde, even as they continue adding to their success. We’re running on a treadmill that is increasing in speed.

 

[ecotourist]

As a home owner, what benefit am I receiving if my home value stays high? Honest question. Unless you cash out of the house and live in a van, it doesn't matter. My home could be worth 5x more tomorrow, but so will every other home for sale in the area.

A huge downside is that property taxes are higher because of the inflated property evaluations.

I agree with part of what you say. If you sell out and move down the block you don't gain anything.

But there are benefits to having your house price soar:

• You could sell out and move to a lower cost community and live off the difference.
• You could take out a reverse mortgage that is actually larger than your original investment.
• Your ability to borrow (if you call that a benefit) will be enhanced by your larger net worth.
• Your estate will be larger - your children and grandchildren will benefit.
• There will be fewer questions about your monthly mortgage payments since your mortgage is a smaller percent of your home's value.

And I don't agree that your taxes will be higher because your home has increased in value. That's a common misconception. The cost of running the local government (city, town, rural community, whatever) is divided up amongst the property owners based on everyone's property values (the so-called "mill rate" system). The only way you would pay an increased share of property taxes is if your home's value soared and everyone else's stayed the same. Your taxes may be higher (and probably are) but it's not because your home has increased in value.

 

[SHOZ]

A house behind me got into a bidding war. Asking 245k and got 260k. In a flood zone and bad driveway on a gravel road, half acer on the pond high bank. My taxes went up $9.

 

[SHOZ]

I agree with part of what you say. If you sell out and move down the block you don't gain anything.

But there are benefits to having your house price soar:

• You could sell out and move to a lower cost community and live off the difference.
• You could take out a reverse mortgage that is actually larger than your original investment.
• Your ability to borrow (if you call that a benefit) will be enhanced by your larger net worth.
• Your estate will be larger - your children and grandchildren will benefit.
• There will be fewer questions about your monthly mortgage payments since your mortgage is a smaller percent of your home's value.

And I don't agree that your taxes will be higher because your home has increased in value. That's a common misconception. The cost of running the local government (city, town, rural community, whatever) is divided up amongst the property owners based on everyone's property values (the so-called "mill rate" system). The only way you would pay an increased share of property taxes is if your home's value soared and everyone else's stayed the same. Your taxes may be higher (and probably are) but it's not because your home has increased in value.

I have a 3/4 acer lot with no improvements other than landscaping. Been empty all the time I've had it though it's zoned as a Homesite. Taxes are $642 this year, paid $12,500 25 years ago. Directly across the road is another 2 acer lot that is zoned for a house, has a well and electrical service. Taxes are $611 they paid $25k three years ago.

 

[alarmguy]

You say "it's all relative to the rest of the nation" (to which I agree) but then completely overlook an entire generation that is unable to own a home with good wages. Relatively, I say, this sharp housing boom is not a net-good for the nation.

Yes, some people benefit from the current housing boom as you are able to point out, but this mass-migration of sorts is only applicable to a relatively small percentage of the country, and ironically has only made homes even MORE unaffordable. Sooner than later, there will be nowhere left to go.

PS - I'm not bringing up these issues for my own sake, but I do sympathize with other hard-working people that are struggling to afford a home.

I dont know any struggling young people out of the dozens that I know and are all living way better than people in the 60s, 70s and 80s.
If they cant find a job with less than a 4% unemployment rate, they arent trying or need to move to a place where they can. http://indeed.com is a good place to view jobs in other areas.

 

[ecotourist]

I agree with part of what you say. If you sell out and move down the block you don't gain anything.

But there are benefits to having your house price soar:

• You could sell out and move to a lower cost community and live off the difference.
• You could take out a reverse mortgage that is actually larger than your original investment.
• Your ability to borrow (if you call that a benefit) will be enhanced by your larger net worth.
• Your estate will be larger - your children and grandchildren will benefit.
• There will be fewer questions about your monthly mortgage payments since your mortgage is a smaller percent of your home's value.

And I don't agree that your taxes will be higher because your home has increased in value. That's a common misconception. The cost of running the local government (city, town, rural community, whatever) is divided up amongst the property owners based on everyone's property values (the so-called "mill rate" system). The only way you would pay an increased share of property taxes is if your home's value soared and everyone else's stayed the same. Your taxes may be higher (and probably are) but it's not because your home has increased in value.

PS Your property taxes would be higher if your home was decreasing in value too. Property taxes increase because of inflation (ie the cost of running the local government)

 

[jeepman3071]

Sorry, can not agree. Want to be a free person then one has to take charge of their life. Simple stuff.
I could counter everything a millennial says and still come back that life has never been more easy in the history of mankind.

This stuff about the same jobs? Well then go into a different field. As time goes on the fields that make money do to. Become a plumber, tradesman/woman. Your salary is whatever you want it to be. College? go to a trade school many make more money than traditional college kids. Not only that but in the medical field they will pay for your education to advance even further. Same goes for technology.
These opportunities did not exist decades ago except for very top management.

and oh, I do get tired of hearing about retirement being pretty sad. The young do not even know that 401k plans did not exist before 1978. Good for you on cars loans (really not kidding and want you to know I am just discussing) SO many of the young (and many old) can not resist buying stuff instead of saving money. How many younger people are driving around in cars that decades ago would hace been unheard of for someone young, youth who take out 60 and 72 month car loans, finance the latest most expensive cell phones on the market instead of a $100 one, actually pay monthly subscription fees for EVERYTHING, music, internet, television, sports packages, its endless. None of this stuff existed decades ago. Let's not even get started on housing and the homes they buy now adays. Filled with luxury and sized MUCH larger than decades ago.
GO down to the coast and large lakes on days, see people having fun on their $12,000 jet skis, $50,000 +++ boats.

Life is good, many happy young people out there who know how to make it happen. The others on social media complaining.
My son, works at BMW, largest plant in the world, largest exporter of cars in the USA was never college material, has a wife, 2 kids, a home of their own, drives not one but two BMWs (not that I agreed at the time but one is paid off the other a BMW employee lease which is a pretty nice deal). Was never college material but he knows how to work hard and the value of $60 an hour overtime. His benefits are of all the wall great. I dont want to misquote but maybe his medical has a deductible as low as $250 for the family. Works 10 hour days but every month gets 5 days off in a row in addition to his normal 2 days off a week. Lots of PTO etc.

My daughter was college material, did her 4 years at Clemson University, before she even started her FIRST day of college she started working at a local tavern for her spending money. < knocked out student loans in five years with us matching 50% of the extra priceable she was paying. Now holds an amazing job with an international company and one of the largest employers in the USA and Canada. Doing so well they created a department that she runs and now on her 3rd promotion taking place soon.
Life has never been more easy for those who want to work and more easy to move anyplace in the USA and make it happen.

What was an old occupation in the past will not pay what a new occupation will pay in the future. Supply and Demand rules in a free market. If the youth wants to be free that is. Maybe a study of the old USSR is needed by some. I remember back then how some made it seem so good, free health care, everyone lives in a house ha!

I want to repeat I am just discussing, dont read my words wrong. Just tell the youth to throw away all the so called luxuries they enjoy today and they will live far better than anyone ever did in the history of mankind. But instead they give their money to banks for interest payments and buy luxuries that they should not.
This is just a small percentage of youth that cant make it happen. Out of dozens of young families that I know, in and out of my family circle I dont know of any failures. IN fact I admire how well they are doing. I know of two in the last 3 months who were deciding on moving south, young kids, young families. Call me crazy but my house wasnt worth the ONE MILLION dollars theirs are now and I lived in the same area when I was young.

I actually agree with you, and myself have taken a similar path. I have a sign on the wall in my shop at home that says "nobody cares, work harder".

The issue I think is that I'm abnormal from a lot of my generation. I was raised to work hard and be financially responsible. I work at a university and went to schools that preach the opposite, that you can "do whatever you want in life and you will be fine" which I think is the idea that society as a whole is teaching to young people and making them ill-prepared for the world. Maybe we should start teaching young people that dropping $150k on a degree in basket weaving isn't the way to go. I recently hired an entry level position in my area, and many of the candidates we interviewed were extremely eye-opening, and not in a good way.

 

[ecotourist]

Millennials in the US will not get a break, in other words. It’s global catastrophe after global catastrophe. We had 9/11, dot com bust, depression of 2008, covid, now runaway inflation and a housing shortage with a combo of high prices and high rates that make for the least affordable monthly payments in history. No end in sight.

The boomers are flush with so much cash and have so much relative voting power they’re inadvertently suppressing opportunities for younger gens by simply having different interests. The article is correct that we need higher housing density and revised zoning, but that is unlikely to happen given the interests of the voting block. We’re set up for the biggest generational transfer of wealth in the history of mankind as they exit the stage.

It hasn't been easy for any of us.

When my brother graduated from engineering (1960) he couldn't find a job for almost a year. His first job was as a draftsman.

When I graduated from engineering (1971) I had a "good job" (it wasn't) and I couldn't find another job because there were 1200 unemployed engineers in the country. And we were not eligible for unemployment insurance because, "As a professional you can't be unemployed". Most of my engineering class ended up doing something other than engineering.

While I was in Medical School house prices doubled. My wife and I thought we'd never be able to afford a home.

When my daughter graduated from university she couldn't find a decent job. She took a second degree and then scraped along for about a decade before getting a good job.

 

[PWMDMD]

You say "it's all relative to the rest of the nation" (to which I agree) but then completely overlook an entire generation that is unable to own a home with good wages. Relatively, I say, this sharp housing boom is not a net-good for the nation.

Yes, some people benefit from the current housing boom as you are able to point out, but this mass-migration of sorts is only applicable to a relatively small percentage of the country, and ironically has only made homes even MORE unaffordable. Sooner than later, there will be nowhere left to go.

PS - I'm not bringing up these issues for my own sake, but I do sympathize with other hard-working people that are struggling to afford a home.

I have 4 or 5 employees between 25 and 35 who are part of a two income house, with children and no formal education, who have recently purchased homes. They are making between $25-$30/hour and working 40 hours per week and their significant others are in similar situations. Somehow they are making it work. Now, these are not McMansions and they can't buy east of here towards Boston, but west of here somehow the finances work out. One employee just finished building a prefab home in NE CT - she makes $29/hr and works 40 hours per week and her husband works at a shipping company and I know he works a bit of OT but they make it work in MA and CT, which are not inexpensive places to live. I'm not saying it's easy but why have we written off an entire generation's ability to buy a home?

FWIW...my sister and my parents could never afford to buy their own homes in their entire lifetimes, both in a two income house, and working a lot of OT. Is this new?

 

[72C10]

I have more success than most boomers and still the line is “quit whining and get a job.” I have a job, investments, etc.

The problem is that the system is degrading faster than successful young people can keep up. Their lifestyles are in severe retrograde, even as they continue adding to their success. We’re running on a treadmill that is increasing in speed.

The end result will be political and social unrest. I will try to avoid getting political, but the middle class has been sold out my entire life. I was able to witness it growing up in a blue-collar area. I have empathy for people who are struggling.

I do not believe the path we are on is sustainable.

 

[alarmguy]

...I'm not saying it's easy but why have we written off an entire generation's ability to buy a home?

...

Social Media is why. Its only a tiny portion of the population/complainers and mass media that feeds it further
It's easy to control human beings perspective of what is real and what is now.

 

[TheOilWizard]

I dont know any struggling young people out of the dozens that I know and are all living way better than people in the 60s, 70s and 80s.
If they cant find a job with less than a 4% unemployment rate, they arent trying or need to move to a place where they can. http://indeed.com is a good place to view jobs in other areas.

The context of my response was regarding home affordability. Simply "finding a job" is an entirely different metric and loosely connected at best.

 

[PWMDMD]

This stuff about the same jobs? Well then go into a different field. As time goes on the fields that make money do to. Become a plumber, tradesman/woman. Your salary is whatever you want it to be. College? go to a trade school many make more money than traditional college kids. Not only that but in the medical field they will pay for your education to advance even further. Same goes for technology.
These opportunities did not exist decades ago except for very top management.

I do not disagree with what you've written and I'd like to add to what you wrote...

Don't write off college either. I make a relative buttload compared to most people as a direct result of going to college and grad school. There's the kicker for the younger generations, you can make money doing a TON of different things and pursuing completely different paths. Want to go to college and grad school? Awesome, BUT you have to be SMART about it because it doesn't make sense to spend $200K on something that pays $60k per year. It DOES make sense to pay $200k on something that pays $400K per year. You have to be SMART about it. Don't want to go to college, that's fine too, go into a trade BUT you have to be SMART about that too. You actually have to be really GOOD AT WHAT YOU DO and provide BETTER service than the other people in your area if you want to make a really good living at it.

My kids were in yesterday for cleanings and I swear they think I don't anything by the way they describe my job. They didn't see the tens of thousands of hours of studying and training. Being in the ED at 3am in residency. The difficulties of owning a business and dealing with the public. I was on call last for my practice last week for the 4th of July and we were closed Thursday and Friday and it was the least restful long weekend ever because I was managing one kid with a submandibular swelling and one kid with a pretty nasty cellulitis extending to the inferior border of her eye. I thought about and was in contact all weekend with these kids but that's what I signed up for and it's part of the gig. I'm not asking for any credit because lots of people do this but what my kids and friends saw was cool calm and collected me all weekend while I was preoccupied with other things. I do this while in grad school myself spending 8-10 hours at time on my days off working on school work. I'm 45 and can say I'm a mule when it comes to handling heavy loads for long periods of time because that it what it took to have my life. I can't imagine the people who over the same period were actually saving people's lives all day instead of drinking beers or the crew who had to replace the electric pole in front of my house the night of July 4 because someone hit it with a car - they were there from 6PM and until 2AM in the heat so I could have AC. Things that pay well also tend to be stressful.

What I do know is no matter what you choose to do you are going to have to HUSTLE to get your piece of the pie in this world but it has ALWAYS been that way.

 

[jeepman3071]

The issue in my area at least is if you don't have dual income you really can't buy a house with the debt (car payments, student loans, etc) and income most people have. Most of my similar aged single coworkers don't make enough to buy a house, and the rent in my area is comparable to my mortgage or higher for just single bedroom "meh" apartments. I know the answer is always "just move" but not always an option for people.

Again I feel the current state of things is somewhere in between the whining of "there is nothing out there to buy" and the "just go work full-time at 38k a year and buy a house" mentalities out there lol.