Originally Posted By: IndyIan
The cost of electricity fluctuates by the minute though, especially during the day. Solar isn't base load production, its to fill in the afternoon peaks in electricity demand where the wholesale prices are $.20-.80/kwh.
That's the theory, however the reality is that the demand comes on before the solar does and the solar stops generating before the demand drops off and this creates the "duck curve", which, in places like California and Ontario, has put greater demand and reliance on "peaker" NG GT's (which drives up prices), and which also have to step it up even further when it is a cloudy day, we are having a rain storm, snow storm....etc because solar is unreliable. And of course in the winter months, the hours of sun are far fewer.
Some more details on that here:
Link to Bloomberg article
The other issue is over-generation, which we experience here in Ontario, which results in power being sold off at a loss to the states and other provinces. At the same time we are also paying wind generator contract holders to stop their turbines when generation outpaces demand.
That's how this came about:
Originally Posted By: IndyIan
No one with solar panels is producing electricity when its cheap to buy already from under utilized base load production plants...
In a few years when panels cost half as much and energy storage is half as much, then it might be considered for base load production.
Sure they are. They produce on weekends and holidays. Long lasting, inexpensive storage will certainly help, but what needs to be factored into that also is the electrification of the automotive market. People charging their cars at home are not going to be doing so with solar. This will drive up demand during the night, when solar simply cannot provide.
The result of this will be higher energy rates.
Also, it is the reserve/peaker plants that get paid the obscenely high rates and this is due to their dispatchability. Darlington, Bruce, Pickering, Niagra Falls....etc all get paid whatever the agreed upon rate is.
There's a great little tool here:
IESO Power Data page
Which allows you to graph the power generation methods for a given time period. If you select 3-day you will see that the base load is all nuclear. On to of that, the peak loads are somewhat responded to via hydro electric but the majority of it is handled by natural gas.
Wind makes an appearance and you see a corresponding reduction in power from natural gas. The input from solar is so insignificant (despite our investment) that the line is barely visible. Then, if you click on Imports/Exports you will notice the surge in wind translates into a surge of exports. Over-generation. This is the power that gets sold at a loss and ultimately aides in driving up our bills because of rate contracts with the owners of those facilities.
