Raw Materials Shortages

[SubLGT]

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2022/04/20220402-benchmark.html

• Even in the most optimistic scenarios where every single raw material project in the pipeline comes on stream and existing operations expand aggressively, there will not be enough raw material for the battery supply chain as we go into 2030.
• Lack of supply is not due to any geological constraints but to a simple lack of capital investment to build future mines.
• Benchmark forecasts that lithium chemical supply will be in a deficit of more than 300,000 tonnes by 2030, with nickel sulfate supply set to fall short of demand by nearly 400,000 tonnes, cobalt by more than 75,000 tonnes and flake graphite by nearly 2 million tonnes by the end of the decade.
• Both lithium and cobalt face medium-term challenges to meeting automotive consumer ambitions; raw material constraints will prevent battery production topping the 1 TWh threshold until 2025.

• Benchmark’s Simon Moores stressed that OEMs will “need to become miners” and invest to bring new raw material mining capacity, not just refining capacity, to market.
• Benchmark’s Daisy Jennings-Gray warned of the “the huge raw material disconnect” that has opened up between growing downstream demand for critical battery raw materials from the EV industry and the increasingly limited availability of those raw materials.
• Benchmark warned that OEM raw material fears have become reality for lithium and nickel after unprecedented price spikes.
• LME nickel chaos exacerbated industry doubts over existing financial mechanism that “do not reflect the realities of the EV and battery supply chain” and calls for new pricing mechanism grows.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/02/investing/nickel-short-squeeze/index.html

 

[skyactiv]

Not to be political, but did we shoot ourselves in the foot putting sanctions on Russia while they have raw materials we need?

 

[Pablo]

Not to be political, but did we shoot ourselves in the foot putting sanctions on Russia while they have raw materials we need?

no.
"Lack of supply is not due to any geological constraints but to a simple lack of capital investment to build future mines."

 

[wpod]

We are getting groomed for a Soviet Union Style life style. We won't own anything but we will be happy.

 

[Danno]

I live in an area that produces nickel, gold, copper, cobalt and has lithium mines starting up as there are significant lithium reserves in the area.
Search "Frontier Lithium"
The local economy is doing quite well.

 

[Pablo]

I live in an area that produces nickel, gold, copper, cobalt and has lithium mines starting up as there are significant lithium reserves in the area.
Search "Frontier Lithium"
The local economy is doing quite well.

I own shares. Excellent!

 

[Dave9]

I've predicted this for years, always felt it was madness to project lofty adoption rates, let alone mandates until we have a more viable battery tech.

 

[Pablo]

I've predicted this for years, always felt it was madness to project lofty adoption rates, let alone mandates until we have a more viable battery tech.

Electric cars only in WA 2030. NUTS.

 

[PandaBear]

I've predicted this for years, always felt it was madness to project lofty adoption rates, let alone mandates until we have a more viable battery tech.

Most MBAs with no low level background in their fields would do "forecast" out of their power point and excel charts. In my company I have seen managers fudge jira points and director fudge forecast and promises, then VP forecast their revenue based on that. I'm working on one problem over the weekend now because these fudges are hitting the fans and now the VP would look bad in front of the investors.

The immature side of me wants to just quit and let their bonuses get cut next quarter. However that'll probably burn enough bridges that in case I want to come back to rest and vest, I'd be blacklisted. So I'll do just enough to make them feel like they owe me a favor, but not burn myself out for this. They took 25% of my target bonus for no reason and they will lose their 25% bonus because they screwed up with excel and power point, we're probably square now.

 

[JeffKeryk]

Most MBAs with no low level background in their fields would do "forecast" out of their power point and excel charts. In my company I have seen managers fudge jira points and director fudge forecast and promises, then VP forecast their revenue based on that. I'm working on one problem over the weekend now because these fudges are hitting the fans and now the VP would look bad in front of the investors.

The immature side of me wants to just quit and let their bonuses get cut next quarter. However that'll probably burn enough bridges that in case I want to come back to rest and vest, I'd be blacklisted. So I'll do just enough to make them feel like they owe me a favor, but not burn myself out for this. They took 25% of my target bonus for no reason and they will lose their 25% bonus because they screwed up with excel and power point, we're probably square now.

Corporate forecast accuracy depends on accountability and executive oversight.
Excuses foster missed forecasts.

 

[Job]

Electric cars only in WA 2030. NUTS.

I was trying to find out more specifics without having to read the actual signed law. Why is it called a target? It will be interesting now that it was signed into law if the transportation agency will actually be able to achieve the plan, or target. As a guess, I would say in eight years no way a realistic plan can be achieved. I would say it will be doomed as not feasible and will be rescinded. It is a bit nutty. That’s what happens when opinions of those in charge are too strong one way. For one, a lot of people want and can only afford the low priced new cars. EV are not low priced. OK if they can sell a midsize car for $16,999, a small car for $12,999, then maybe it’s feasible. If the charging facilities are installed about like gas stations are now. If the charging is very fast and not harmful to the battery. If the battery gets a 15-20 year 200,000 mile warranty to charge to at least 95% capacity. No $50,000 base model with an 8-10 year battery warranty that possibly requires $20,000 for a new battery after that.

 

[Owen Lucas]

I own shares. Excellent!

Thanks for the stock tips, I'll look into them. Definitely invest in decent junior minors and refiners, including the Uranium sector which is poised for a squeeze in the coming years.

 

[PandaBear]

I was trying to find out more specifics without having to read the actual signed law. Why is it called a target? It will be interesting now that it was signed into law if the transportation agency will actually be able to achieve the plan, or target. As a guess, I would say in eight years no way a realistic plan can be achieved. I would say it will be doomed as not feasible and will be rescinded. It is a bit nutty. That’s what happens when opinions of those in charge are too strong one way. For one, a lot of people want and can only afford the low priced new cars. EV are not low priced. OK if they can sell a midsize car for $16,999, a small car for $12,999, then maybe it’s feasible. If the charging facilities are installed about like gas stations are now. If the charging is very fast and not harmful to the battery. If the battery gets a 15-20 year 200,000 mile warranty to charge to at least 95% capacity. No $50,000 base model with an 8-10 year battery warranty that possibly requires $20,000 for a new battery after that.

Laws don't last, people vote and appeal and they get repealed all the time.

Remember EV1? It was a compliance car to satisfy a law, the law was later repealed, we didn't have electric cars until 20 years later.

 

[PimTac]

Electric cars only in WA 2030. NUTS.

It is and I doubt it will hold up either.

 

[Danno]

Not to be political, but did we shoot ourselves in the foot putting sanctions on Russia while they have raw materials we need?

There are resources available from your neighbours to the north.

The will is not there.

As examples, Google "Keystone XL" and "Ring of Fire Ontario"

 

[zzyzzx]

https://news.yahoo.com/lithium-supply-ev-targets-miner-181513161.html

'We don’t have enough' lithium globally to meet EV targets, mining CEO says