I am sure some of the more knowledgeable members around here will sort out any mistakes I make in the following explanation. The following is as I understand it.
That is the theory. However in practice you will find wear metals often spike when oil is first changed.
You might see 3 ppm after 1000 mi, 5 ppm after 2000 mi, and 6 ppm after 3000 mi.
This is why it is usually recommended a oil go at least 2500-3000 mi in order to get a representative UOA.
When going to extended OCI with UOA you are looking for two things in order to set OCI.
1. Absolute limits: Minimum TBN and Maximum Wear Metals:
2. Any Evidence of sudden rapid TBN loss or sudden spiking of wear metals.
3000 mi - 6 ppm
6000 mi - 8 ppm
9000 mi - 10 ppm
12000 mi - 13 ppm
15000 mi - 18 ppm
18000 mi - 30 ppm
21000 mi - 50 ppm
In the above example the 12000 mi UOA was not enough to be considered spiking but by the 15000 mi UOA it was obvious the wear metals were begaining to spike and the oil should be changed.
0 mi - 12.0 TBN
3000 mi - 9.0 TBN
6000 mi - 8.0 TBN
9000 mi - 7.0 TBN
12000 mi - 6.5 TBN
15000 mi - 4.5 TBN
18000 mi - 2.0 TBN
21000 mi - 0.2 TBN
In the above example the sudden drop in TBN at 15000 mi would tell you it is time to change the oil even if you had set your absolute limit at 2.0 TBN.
Gene