JHZR2
Staff member
Looks like it will steer Franklin back out into the Atlantic.
Possible Hurricane Forming in Atlantic (70% Chance), Track Unknown at this Time
- Thread starter 97K15004WD
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They will make sure of it. Storms that would not even been close to getting named 15 - 20 years ago get named now. Thats not my words, that comes from a respected veteran meteorologist in SE TX.
Notice how many storms "juuuuuust" reach 74 mph just before landfall. Its being pushed from multiple sources.
I feel ya. Its bad in Chambers Co. too. Grass is 100% dead and ground cracks are 2"-3" wide. Just bad.
With that said, remember 2014? That was far, far, FAR worse. Alarmists on TV and media said Houston was going to turn into moonscape in the coming years, and a "new extreme dry normal" was here for sure! Then... Harvey, Imelda, and others dumped feet of rain. Everything changed. Its just part of normal weather cycles. Houston will get plenty of rain again.
Current Map | U.S. Drought Monitor
droughtmonitor.unl.edu
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I greatly appreciate that man.
I have quite a bit of experience using the models, knowing hurricane climatology extensively well, and understanding typical air patterns seen as well.
One thing of note I have noticed is that the models have trouble with intensity forecasting hurricanes. In the last 5 years the NHC has finally addressed this and they have made better adjustments to the intensity forecasting by using their own brains. Im very glad they have done that.
A interesting case study is a look at Hurricane Wilma in 2005. That went from a minimal hurricane at 75 mph to a 180 mph in just 18 HOURS. The forecast intensity was way, way, way off… It was 100 mph in 24 hours and at 125 at 36 hours and 140 mph at 48 hours out ahead in time. Incredible strengthening in a perfect storm environment.
Hurricane Harvey is another great example of how far off the intensity models were… That Monday evening they had it being a 80 mph hurricane at landfall. I told my wife that IF the upper air shear forecast was right… with shear forecast at 10 and then weakening to 5 knots…. I told her that hurricane would be a cat 3 or cat 4 at landfall. I was right. By Wednesday evening it was already a category 3 and it made it to cat 4 when it made landfall. The one thing I made an interesting note of was the circulation made its way across the Yucatán peninsula was how well defined the low level spin was evident in all 4 quadrants of it at that time with the low level clouds.
That same phenomenon was central to Hurricane Micheal in 2018… It maintained its core circulation structure even under 20 plus knot upper level wind shear above the storm. And once that subsided to less than 10 knots of upper level shear that storm rapidly deepened to a category 5 hurricane at landfall.
I believe each hurricane is a different storm unto itself. The future of hurricane prediction I believe is understanding and recognizing these features where a storm has great resiliency against unfavorable upper wind shear. How can certain hurricanes maintain their helicity while others are torn apart in the same conditions ? That is a big, big question that if answered would and could be helpful in a big way in the future. I will give great credit to the NHC and the Weather Channel for how they sounded their strong concern for that storm’s intensity 4-5 days ahead of time. I strongly believe they learned something from that Hurricane Harvey circumstance.
I have long said that a hurricane close to Florida coastline or along the Gulf coast IF it were to do this would be the worst case scenario for the NHC. People watch the 6 pm news and see a minimal hurricane and wake up to an extremely strong category 5 when they get up the next morning. Hurricane Opal in 1995 almost carried out that trick going from a 75 mph hurricane to a 150 mph the next am. It did weaken as it moved northward and made landfall. But that really did spook the NHC at that time. It hasn’t been close to happening since. But it is only a matter of time before something like this happens.
I always say winter time forecasting is the toughest by a wide margin. I still believe that is true.
Three TS and one getting ready to form in the Gulf. Looks like hurricane season is in full force.
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The biggest difference is that the computer modeling is a fair amount better now vs 30 plus years ago. That being combined with data from the Hurricane hunters and other air sampling outside of the storms is more helpful too. It’s all about data, data, data and then computation, computation, computation by the forecast models.
The big weakness is intensity forecasting with the computer models. The atmosphere is so dynamic at times the models just can’t keep up with it. And this was in forecast NHC discussions for a long time since the early 2000s. There has been a good effort on their part to address that issue with using their own minds to supplement the models.
The track aspect as been better for a long time especially within 5 days. There is still an average spread of near 300 nautical miles of error at 5 days out ahead in forecast time. And days 5-8 days it can be well more than that by a wide margin. That is completely understandable given the multiple variables involved in what causes a storm to move the way it does.
I have seen times where the models were exceptionally accurate even 5 days out ahead in time. Hurricane Isabel in 2003 the forecast models practically nailed perfectly where that storm would hit the North Carolina coast along the outer banks. I looked at the GFS and NAM models and those two never wavered where that storm would hit. And that was even 6 days before it hit the outer banks. Interestingly the intensity forecast was off by 35 mph. Instead of it being a 140 mph hurricane at landfall it was down to a cat 2 at 105 mph at landfall-. That was a very good thing because even as it was in southeast Hampton Roads many areas still saw winds gust up over 90 mph with the highest being 109 mph on Gwynns Island in Mathews county just east of where I lived in Gloucester county. If Isabel had been 140 mph at landfall then the winds seem in my area would have easily been 100 to 130 mph. That wind gust at Gwynns Island would have likely been 135 mph and the wind gust at Gloucester Point would have been 125 mph instead of 97 mph
Isabel was made worse because of the extremely strong high pressure to the northeast of our region created a very high pressure gradient between the low pressure of Hurricane Isabel and that high pressure to the northeast of it.
Hurricane Hugo in 1989 had a similar circumstance because it was pushed northwest by a very strong high pressure center building off the northeast US coast at that time. That is also why Superstorm Sandy was so much worse north of where its center made landfall. The very strong pressure gradient effect was in place just like it had been with Isabel and Hugo. That has to be part of the equation to know just how bad a particular storm will e for a particular region. In Hurricane Isabel the opening between the Atlantic Ocean and the Chesapeake Bay allowed stronger winds that were unabated and not weakened by interaction with land to cause the winds to be stronger in Hampton, Yorktown, Poquoson, Gloucester and Mathews versus other areas south of those areas. Interestingly too that the tidal flooding was worse the farther up north and west you headed up the York River, James River and the Rappahannock Rivers. But it makes perfect sense when you look at the track of Isabel and the fact the winds were extremely strong southeast winds kept pushing the water harder north and west that didn’t allow water to flow in its norm pattern.
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Sept. 10 is the mid point peak of the season, getting close. If its going to be as busy as they predicted it will take a lot of storms to form soon.
FL, GA, SC on the track. Hope everyone is ready. Good Luck!
I don’t care. We just need the rain.
