Please help sort my thoughts about buying a new car.

If one has to worry about depreciation because they might need to sell the car in a pinch they have some very serious financial problems.

They might as well be living in a tent or their parents basement.
70% of Americans.... Hundreds of millions of Americans, but only a few million "new" vehicles sold annually. As a percent almost nobody buys new.
 
70% of Americans.... Hundreds of millions of Americans, but only a few million "new" vehicles sold annually. As a percent almost nobody buys new.


Your numbers are deceiving. A lot of those people are too young to drive. It’s not a level comparison. In addition automobiles are a durable item. They can last many years if taken care of and luck follows you.
 
Hi there. My name is Steven Lang. If you Google my name and add the word 'cars', you'll find out that I have lived the used car business for well over two decades now.

Here's a study I co-developed which has over 3 million vehicles in its database. Mechanics from Connecticut to California have been inspecting and providing data for our study since 2013.

https://www.dashboard-light.com/

I have two children in college right now, both with scholarships, ages 22 and 20. They don't have cars. The younger one lives off-campus and the other lives on-campus. Neither had any trouble getting transportation for job interviews, medical appointments, or even get togethers with friends or events that were located away from school.

I have owned a car dealership since 2003. If they needed a car or asked for one, they would already have it. As a dealer my only real costs would be for gas and insurance. But they don't want a car because they don't need one. Nearly all colleges and universities have vast transportation services these days and a lot of college organizations will also gladly furnish free transport when needed.

Unless your daughter attends a commuter school I seriously doubt she will need a car until she has a professional full-time job. Now onto your list.


"I am considering a Corolla Cross (CC) or RAV4, an HR-V, or a Crosstrek."

Congratulations! You have nailed the four most overpriced compact vehicles in today's car market! The HR-V experienced transmission issues in its prior generation. Toyota's quality and relaibility has dropped across the board, and Subaru is consistently at or below average when it comes to long-term quality.

The real elephant in the room though is your Fusion. It's the last reliable generation. The 2.5 Liter in particular is stellar. The transmission in yours will actually outlast the ones from the 2012 Toyota Camry with proper care. It's that good.

The EV market is going to be absolutely decimating the gas car market beginning around late 2024. You won't have any trouble finding a stickshift model that is new or late model. Mazda is particularly fantastic.

I would invest about $2000 into your Fusion. A nicer Infotainment system. New struts and tires. A professional detail, and a drain/fill on the transmission (if you have done this once or twice in the past) will all go a very long way towards making the Fusion fun to drive... again.

Good luck. Enjoy life. And as others here have already mentioned, new gas-powered cars are atrocious values right now. But that will change soon enough thanks to Uncle Sam's $7500 EV giveaway and all the major manufacturers building large armies of them in the very near future.
What happened to Dashboard Light? It appears that the project has been abandoned.
 
By the way I value cars depreciation is irrelevant, I use my own formula for the life of the car. If I am buying a car that has 100K miles on it, I better be paying far less than half of new because its going to need a bunch of maintenance in the next 100K. Unfortunately right now cars with 100K miles on them are like half of a new car. Why on earth would I not just buy new?

I don't worry about depreciation of my toaster. Why would I for my car if I plan to keep it for its lifetime.

Of course I pay cash and have never traded a car, so there is that.
 
I just seen an advertisement on tv showing the Toyota Crown hybrid. It' a very nice hybrid but pricey @ MSRP $39,950. Maybe that vehicle would work for you OP.
 
As always, within a class of car kept for it's lifespan, it is generally not more than 5c per mile more expensive to drive a well purchased new car, vs used. The same may go for light trucks, but about 7c per mile.

Factors include better fuel economy of new vehicles, no repairs, warranty coverage, expected lifespan, insurance costs, and so on.

People really get hung up on the Capital costs of a vehicle, but often don't consider that not only is used is pro-rated, but the majority of costs MAY NOT BE the vehicle capital costs. Depending on you, where you live and fuel use.

Example: Insurance at $2500/yr/10K miles/yr is 25c per mile!
Example: $30K sedan, 200K lifespan, is 15c per mile!

Interestingly, many new vehicles are less expensive to insure than a quality used car.
 
As always, within a class of car kept for it's lifespan, it is generally not more than 5c per mile more expensive to drive a well purchased new car, vs used. The same may go for light trucks, but about 7c per mile.

Factors include better fuel economy of new vehicles, no repairs, warranty coverage, expected lifespan, insurance costs, and so on.

People really get hung up on the Capital costs of a vehicle, but often don't consider that not only is used is pro-rated, but the majority of costs MAY NOT BE the vehicle capital costs. Depending on you, where you live and fuel use.

Example: Insurance at $2500/yr/10K miles/yr is 25c per mile!
Example: $30K sedan, 200K lifespan, is 15c per mile!

Interestingly, many new vehicles are less expensive to insure than a quality used car.
Good stuff. Moreover what you buy will impact total operating cost a great deal. Change that sedan to a truck or SUV and the per mile expense on fuel alone just went up considerably.

Ironically if you told someone not buy a used truck because operating costs were higher than cars people people might tell you it’s their money and to mind your business. Yet if it were a new sedan in question then the depreciation police would come out to throttle folks because that cannot be tolerated.
 
I will be a dissenting voice.

I only buy used vehicles, but in today's environment and your situation, I think new is by far a better choice.

Lots of mentions of great vehicles like the Mazda- but because money is an issue, the mass-produced Toyota is the least risk of any of the models listed, will offer more dealerships to price shop, and projected better resale value. Same with parts availability, etc. Mazda may build a funner vehicle, but I doubt it costs less to own or operate over a Toyota. I doubt any IC vehicle is lower to one and operate than a Toyota over a ten-year time frame.

When you run a tight ship with your budget, a new well cared for small vehicle is likely the best course of action. I would not worry about recession, depression, etc. No recession is coming- depression maybe, and if that happens---- everything as we know it will change.
 
Seems like a decent plan--hand (sell) car to 18 yr old. I'd be careful: back when I was in college I could only afford to have a car on the road about half of each year, and so my car wound up sitting at the parents place. Your "old" car may come home to roost, time to time. Or her plans may change and find she doesn't need a car at all--and TBH, you might want it back, nothing like a beater that you have 100% confidence in, that you owned from new & can vouch for its history.

Anyhow.

HR-V? isn't that the small one that gets bad reviews? If you're going to own long term, get the bigger one with better reviews, unless if you really need something smaller.

I'm not sold that DI is all worked out yet, but these days it probably is, especially when they use both DI and port injection. At the very least, any issues that might pop up are apt to be pushed far down the road (and TBH, not all DI cars had problems, IIRC Mazda didn't at all?). BUT I would not run 10k OCI's on 0W16. It might be FUD but to me, 5k with all of the woes and hand wringing with DI and uber thin oils... I'm not convinced it's settled just yet. That's for at least Toyota and Honda, dunno about Subaru but I'm not sure if Subaru had issues with DI.

Myself, I'm not sure if I like Subaru but that could be a bias showing. Boxer engine is a nice idea but seems to have a complex timing belt and has had issues with head gaskets, and has had issues with CV axles, and mpg, and rust, and ... I'm thinking of older models, who knows, just not at the top of my list for a "forever" car. Something like Camry or Accord is, not saying other vehicles can't rack up the miles, just that they don't come into my mind when I think of long term.

Are you really sure you want a stickshift as you go through life? Sure it's fun. But it seems "many" lose the desire to row the gears as they get older. They might like it on the weekends, but at some point they stop enjoying it on the commute. Also, NC, do you really "need" AWD down there, or is it just something you'd like to have? I'm sure it's nice to have but is it really a requirement? I'm wondering if you could find something that isn't AWD, which tends to be cheaper, since everyone is sold today on having to have AWD.

There's rumors that the wholesale market is dropping on used cars. No idea when that will trickle outwards, and TBH I'm not sure it will have an impact on "good" used cars, only just the ones with high miles and problems (right now if it has 4 tires that hold air and starts and runs, it seems worth $5k, multiple collisions and all). But is there value in waiting a few more months to see if the used market drops a bit?

Subaru and the head gasket problems were fixed 10 years ago, along with switching to timing chains. They've had a pretty good track record since then.

The earlier Crosstek's with the 2.0 H4 had some issues, and were low on power. They're now using the tired and true 2.5 H4. The CVT is well sorted by now as well. I never wanted a CVT, but the one in our Outback is pretty nice, no complaints.

Their front lower control arm design does have a lot to be desired though. At least in Outbacks be prepared to change them every 70-100K. Mine is clunking, just need to get it in since it's under warranty.
 
Subaru and the head gasket problems were fixed 10 years ago, along with switching to timing chains. They've had a pretty good track record since then.
Thanks, I've only shopped the used market, and at the price I'm willing to spend, it's all belts and HG's territory. Well that and rust holes.
 
After watching this video, I'd never buy a car with direct fuel injection.


Problem with that is, every OEM is different. IIRC Mazda was early with DI, and didn't have these issues. VW, BMW others sure did; not sure that Ford had as bad as others, but then it might have been engine specific. Point is, it's very engine specific, if it will (or won't) have problems. And every year, R&D is put into the problem, and what was true in the past isn't necessarily true of future engines.

Plus there has been a bit of a move towards having both DI and PFI, for the advantages of both. The OEM's will say it's about low speed drivability, but those of us with tin foil believe it's due to trying to stave off this issue.

Lastly, it does have to be asked: let's say you have to pull the intake every 100k and walnut blast the valves. If it was on the service schedule, and cost less than a timing belt job... and resulted in an engine with significantly more mpg & power... would it be a worthwhile compromise? What if you wanted a performance car, and this had to be done every 30k? still so bad? FOR ME, who buys boring economy cars, yeah it'd be a major uproar, but I get it, not everyone wants to drive what I drive (and it's not that I actually DESIRE to drive what I have, it's just that I buy what fits my needs & budget).
 
As always, within a class of car kept for it's lifespan, it is generally not more than 5c per mile more expensive to drive a well purchased new car, vs used. The same may go for light trucks, but about 7c per mile.

Factors include better fuel economy of new vehicles, no repairs, warranty coverage, expected lifespan, insurance costs, and so on.

People really get hung up on the Capital costs of a vehicle, but often don't consider that not only is used is pro-rated, but the majority of costs MAY NOT BE the vehicle capital costs. Depending on you, where you live and fuel use.

Example: Insurance at $2500/yr/10K miles/yr is 25c per mile!
Example: $30K sedan, 200K lifespan, is 15c per mile!

Interestingly, many new vehicles are less expensive to insure than a quality used car.


Plus when you buy used you are taking a chance. Some people are good at inspecting a used vehicle and can find trouble. Most are not. It’s almost a lottery game these days.
 
Thanks, I've only shopped the used market, and at the price I'm willing to spend, it's all belts and HG's territory. Well that and rust holes.

After 2012 is a safer bet, except for the first couple years of the introduction of the CVT. Rust around the wheel wells are standard though, lol.
 
I primarily buy used because I can buy a significantly more entertaining car for the same amount of money.

Correct, that's what I did. I purchased a Used 2017 28K miles, Jaguar F-Type S. Paid $40K, MSRP $95K. I was also willing to tolerate the fender replacement. They documented the before and after and it was clearly not substantial damage. Used cars are much more likely to have been damaged.

And you just made me think of something else. Depending on goals, properly purchasing a "robust, capable and comfortable" used vehicle (the Crown Vic used to be a good example) is more likely to provide a long service life than a new Elantra of the same price. Not to mention the safety of a bigger vehicle.
 
After 2012 is a safer bet, except for the first couple years of the introduction of the CVT. Rust around the wheel wells are standard though, lol.
Yeah, I'm going to avoid CVT for now, the bugs are almost worked out--but not for the models I'd be shopping.

I do need (ok "want") a vehicle with side impact airbags, that puts a crimp into my shopping, as wasn't standard equipment 15 years ago or so. But less than 20 years means I have to pass emissions every year... but 20 years old means it's a rot box... so not a lot of choices. I'm too demanding I guess. :)
 
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