Please help sort my thoughts about buying a new car.

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After watching this video, I'd never buy a car with direct fuel injection.


Don’t I know it! My 2007 Mazdaspeed 3 could only manage to run a fourteen second quarter mile. Even worse, it only averaged 27 mpg over the 8 years and 158k miles I owned it. And guess how many times I had the valves walnut blasted?
Zero.
And don’t get me started on my M235i; it could only manage a quarter in the high twelves while returning 27 mpg(32 mpg at 80 mph).
I still have two DI car in the garage; the thought of that makes it extremely difficult to get a good nights rest.
 

AJB0009

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@ARCOgraphite
You have a 23 Crosstrek with manual trans in your signature. Do you care to chime in? How long have you had it? How many miles? Your thoughts so far?
~
Again, a ton of great conversation. Here are a few thoughts of mine off the top of my head:
I called my insurance agent and priced the same coverage the Fusion currently has compared to a 23 Crosstrek. My rates would actually drop a small amount.
My daughter commutes to a local community/technical college.
IIRC, my wife and I looked at a used 2019 RAV with about 30k miles. We "built" the exact same vehicle on Toyota's website, brand new 2023. The used one was $500 less!
Who in the world is going to buy that? Balance of remaining powertrain warranty only on the used.
A lot of discussion about recession, depression, vehicle price bubble going to pop and prices dropping 20%. Here are my thoughts, please tell me what you think:
A 23 base Crosstrek with manual trans is $25k even. A 20% drop would be $5k. I just don't foresee Subaru dropping the price of a 24 down to $20k. Tesla and Elon are unique, IMHO.
As for used prices, it's supply and demand, right? For used prices to drop dramatically, either supply would have to increase a lot or demand would have to drop a lot. Does anyone see either of those scenarios happening anytime soon?
Like someone mentioned, if we had crystal balls and could predict what tomorrow holds, we would be rich and would not have to worry about such things as this.
Thanks again everyone, good, thoughtful discussion!
 

AJB0009

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One other thought:
It looks like all of the Mazda offerings have cylinder deactivation. Correct?
Does anyone else in this segment (Toyota, Subaru, Honda, Nissan)? If not, I would likely pass on the Mazda just for that reason.
 
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One other thought:
It looks like all of the Mazda offerings have cylinder deactivation. Correct?
Does anyone else in this segment (Toyota, Subaru, Honda, Nissan)? If not, I would likely pass on the Mazda just for that reason.


That is correct but that will vary amongst models and model trims. As an example a CX5 will have it but the CX5 trim levels with the turbo will not.
 
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Tesla and Elon are unique, IMHO.
I don't pretend to know the future - but I don't think Tesla is completely unique.

Tesla dropped there price because there both OEM and dealer, and they had models they could not move. You can make up all the altruistic reasons for that you like but I'll requote the old phrase "its the economy stupid".

So other manufacturers are buffered a bit because the dealers hold their inventory. But as soon as a lot of dealers get to an inventory position they have a lot of costs associated with holding inventory. Those costs are a lot more than they were pre-pandemic where financing was almost free. So with inventory and competition, prices go from MSRP plus market adjustment back to invoice in a hurry.

If the OEM's can't move enough cars to keep their factory full - then back come the rebates.

You have demand dropping at the same time supply is starting to improve. According to Manheim - wholesale used car values have dropped by 13.5% from their peak a year ago. Those prices have not migrated to retail yet. Anecdotally I drove through the local Subaru dealer a couple weeks ago and they had a bunch of Outback inventory - they had nothing a few months ago. The Nissan Dealer has a bunch of Frontiers.

Again, not predicting anything, but to write it off as impossible I would say is not wise. Only question is when does inventory exceed demand.
 
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FZ1

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Depreciation is irrelevant when you own. It's irrelevant because a new car warranty has value and you're in it for the long haul.
So what if you have to finance for 12 - 24 months. speed transmission
This^^^^^^^^^^^^. I'd buy a new Toyota with a "real", 8 speed, transmission. I'd wait, if you can, prices may come down, slightly.
 
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TLDR: Macroeconomics 101

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If you hadn't noticed, across the board, car purchases have fallen off a cliff. Because most people aren't able to buy. Oddly, car prices have soared. Now interest rates have gone to high single digits for good credit on car loans.

So you have LESS people buying, and prices have soared in 2 years. The former will likely continue, while the latter is unsustainable. And interest rates will likely remain high for the next 2 years at least.

World economics are deep in recession, teetering on deep long term depression. Cash positions are high value, loans and new fast depreciating assets are about the last thing one should be purchasing if he's prudent with finances. Even if just waiting a year, one might easily get better deals, better financing, or 20% lower pricing. (See Tesla's desperate move.) It's also nearly certain prices cannot go higher. Further, bonds and fixed classes are offering something like 5% right now. Haven't seen that in at least 15 years.

If someone else wants to blow money on new cars and even take out 8% loans for same, fine. OP said he was frugal blue collar. My advice is to NOT buy a new car at this time.
 

GON

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There is a reason a new car dealer wants to sell a buyer a used car over a new car- often the used car net profit is many multiples of a new car sale.

If one is buying a new Mercedes, or a domestic passenger car, or a Nissan/ Koran made car, yes, risk involved in new car depreciation.

Buying a modestly equipped brand new compact Toyota or Honda and keeping the car for ten plus years- is hard to argue against..... very hard.
 
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There is a reason a new car dealer wants to sell a buyer a used car over a new car- often the used car net profit is many multiples of a new car sale.

If one is buying a new Mercedes, or a domestic passenger car, or a Nissan/ Koran made car, yes, risk involved in new car depreciation.

Buying a modestly equipped brand new compact Toyota or Honda and keeping the car for ten plus years- is hard to argue against..... very hard.
Many dealers take huge advantage of people on trades, manipulate numbers, make extremely low offers, etc. Many new buyers are so "over" their old car and get distracted with shiney new things. It's true, used cars often offer larger margins.

I would usually suggest cutting out the middle men entirely. They serve little purpose. Be patient, have cash, find an excellent private used car sale, go thru the due diligence paces. I bought many this way and never been burned yet.
 

GON

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Many dealers take huge advantage of people on trades, manipulate numbers, make extremely low offers, etc. Many new buyers are so "over" their old car and get distracted with shiney new things. It's true, used cars often offer larger margins.

I would usually suggest cutting out the middle men entirely. They serve little purpose. Be patient, have cash, find an excellent private used car sale, go thru the due diligence paces. I bought many this way and never been burned yet.
Did you read the OP's post that started this thread? He is not trading in a car, is about as savvy as they come, and can negotiate from a strong and knowlegable position.
 
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Did you read the OP's post that started this thread? He is not trading in a car, is about as savvy as they come, and can negotiate from a strong and knowlegable position.
A truly "strong negotiator" would easily be able to negotiate the price of a similar "used" vehicle down to substantially less than the new, counterpart. By simply showing the price of the new vehicle as the starting point, and thereafter paying huge % less.
 
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Nissan is doing the best they can with very limited resources and I applaud them for that. That being said, having seen the quality of their products decline during the Ghosn era, even with this new direction I rather not recommend that to anyone. If you are leasing AND are able to take up one of their really enticing 18 month leases I'd pick nissan, but for a long term owner please skip.
Nissan CVT issues are grossly over stated. They are one of the top selling CUV’s! The interior quality is very good, and 30k mile CVT fluid changes keep them running a long, long time.

My son has my 2016 Rouge with 150k miles on it that was once mine. The only things I did to it were tires, water pump, brake pads, and oil. I had a ‘13 Altima as well with no CVT issues.

I would have bought a new Rogue last May if I could have waited for delivery. I bought a 3 year old Rouge with 15k miles instead because it was there. I just turned 20k miles on it and will do its first CVT fluid change at 30k. It gets the same mileage as my 09 Camry 4cyl did, but is a larger vehicle. Can’t beat that!
 
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A truly "strong negotiator" would easily be able to negotiate the price of a similar "used" vehicle down to substantially less than the new, counterpart. By simply showing the price of the new vehicle as the starting point, and thereafter paying huge % less.
In the past a couple of months the new car price was MSRP + ADMs in some form or figure. So the dealer would say fine pay MSRP listed towards the used vehicle on the dealer lot. Either way a used vehicle would make zero sense.

Private party marketplace is crazy as well. They have gotten used to selling higher then ever before with so many dealers sourcing their lots from there. 2 decade old vehicles with 100K miles, selling for 10k is not the ideal situation.

The used market has cooled, but the effect on pricing cuts depends on the dealer and the region. Some dealers have seen the proverbial light and begun taking action while others are holding on for the right buyer to pay their overpriced asking.

New cars depend on the mfg.
 

CKN

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I keep hearing Korean cars depreciate more than the Toyo/ Honda equivalent. Yes- but ( before the "C" situation) the prices they could he bought at nullified the depreciation against the Toyo/ Honda equivalents.
 
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